🌎 Weekly Global Weather Watch

September 28 – October 4, 2026

Orbis Weather Weekly Analysis

The final days of September are bringing an active mix of tropical cyclones, flooding rain, early-season autumn storms and lingering heat around the planet.

One of the biggest influences on the global weather pattern continues to be a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, increasing the potential for major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns into 2027.

Here are the major weather zones to watch around the world this week.

🇺🇸 United States — Nor’easter Slowly Pulls Away

A powerful late-September nor’easter that battered parts of the Northeast over the weekend will remain a concern early Monday before gradually weakening.

Additional rain is expected around New York and southern New England as the storm departs. Minor coastal flooding, beach erosion and localized street flooding remain possible, particularly around high tide.

The National Weather Service says the system should finally pull away Monday night into Tuesday, allowing conditions to improve significantly.

The Weather Prediction Center had highlighted the coastal Northeast for excessive-rainfall concerns after repeated rounds of rain.

🌧️ Southwest Flooding Threat

Another area to watch is the Southwestern United States, where moisture interacting with an approaching upper-level trough could produce thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall.

Southern California and portions of the desert Southwest may experience isolated flash flooding, particularly around normally dry washes, burn scars and mountainous terrain.

Meanwhile, the threat of significant early-season snow across the contiguous United States remains low. WPC placed the probability of significant snow or ice below 10% through the opening portion of the week.

🌀 Atlantic Tropics — Fay Wanders Over Open Ocean

The Atlantic remains surprisingly subdued for late September.

Tropical Depression Fay was located over the central Atlantic Sunday evening with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 km/h).

The National Hurricane Center described Fay as barely maintaining tropical cyclone status as it moved slowly southward over the open Atlantic.

The broader Atlantic hurricane season continues to feel the effects of strengthening El Niño, which typically increases upper-level wind shear across portions of the tropical Atlantic.

NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook has continued to favor a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

That does not mean hurricane season is finished. The Atlantic season officially continues through November 30, and tropical systems can still develop during October and November.

🌊 Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean

No major tropical cyclone currently dominates the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean, but late September and October historically mark an important transition in tropical development.

As autumn progresses, the western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic increasingly become areas to monitor as the main tropical development zone shifts westward.

Residents from Central America and the Caribbean to Florida and the Gulf Coast should therefore continue watching the tropics despite the unusually quiet Atlantic season.

🌏 Western Pacific — Surigae/Queenie Moves Away From Philippines

The western Pacific remains considerably more active.

Typhoon Surigae — locally named Queenie in the Philippines — has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

PAGASA reported Sunday that Queenie had moved northeastward away from the Philippines. By Sunday afternoon it was about 845 km northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, carrying maximum sustained winds around 155 km/h (96 mph)with gusts reaching approximately 190 km/h (118 mph).

The cyclone is moving toward waters south of Japan.

Although the direct tropical cyclone threat to the Philippines has decreased, unsettled weather remains.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is producing scattered thunderstorms across parts of the Visayas and Mindanao, with locally heavy rain capable of triggering flash flooding or landslides.

👀 Watch Area

Philippine Sea → Ryukyu Islands → waters south of Japan

Surigae’s evolution and track should continue to be monitored as the storm moves northeastward.

🇮🇳 India — Monsoon Not Finished Yet

India’s southwest monsoon continues its gradual seasonal retreat, but significant rainfall remains possible in several areas.

The India Meteorological Department has issued a heavy-rain warning for Uttarakhand Monday, while thunderstorms and lightning are possible across parts of Himachal Pradesh.

Farther south, the weather could become more active.

IMD forecasts heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across South Interior Karnataka, with the possibility of very heavy rainfall Tuesday before additional heavy rainfall remains possible Wednesday and Thursday.

Localized flooding and landslides remain concerns wherever repeated heavy rainfall occurs.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom — Atlantic Weather Returns

Much of the United Kingdom begins Monday relatively quiet, with sunshine across many areas after morning fog clears.

That calm weather will not last.

Rain spreads into southern England overnight before increasingly windy conditions develop Tuesday.

The Met Office expects heavy rain to sweep across the UK Wednesday, followed by cooler, breezy conditions with showers later in the week.

Northwestern areas are likely to experience the strongest winds as Atlantic systems become more influential.

🇪🇺 Europe — Autumn Battle Begins

Europe is entering the classic early-autumn transition period.

Cooler Atlantic air is increasingly pushing into western and northern Europe while warmer air remains established farther south and east.

That temperature contrast provides fuel for developing low-pressure systems and frontal boundaries.

The primary hazards this week will likely include:

• 🌧️ Heavy rainfall

• ⛈️ Thunderstorms

• 💨 Strong winds

• 🌊 Localized coastal impacts

• 🌡️ Sharp temperature swings

Mountainous areas of the Alps and other high terrain will also increasingly experience colder nighttime temperatures as October approaches.

🌍 Africa — Heat, Storms and Seasonal Transition

Africa remains divided between several dramatically different weather regimes.

Across North Africa and the Sahara, very hot and predominantly dry weather remains dominant.

Farther south, tropical moisture continues producing thunderstorms across portions of equatorial and central Africa.

West Africa is gradually approaching the later stages of its rainy season, although intense thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding remain possible.

Southern Africa, meanwhile, is moving deeper into spring, with temperatures gradually climbing and thunderstorm activity beginning to increase in some regions.

🌎 Central America — Flooding Remains the Main Concern

Central America remains within its wet season, keeping flooding and landslides among the region’s biggest weather hazards.

Repeated tropical downpours may affect portions of:

🇬🇹 Guatemala
🇭🇳 Honduras
🇸🇻 El Salvador
🇳🇮 Nicaragua
🇨🇷 Costa Rica
🇵🇦 Panama

Mountainous terrain makes even relatively localized thunderstorms dangerous because intense rainfall can rapidly produce flash floods, swollen rivers and landslides.

Tropical development in the nearby Caribbean and eastern Pacific also remains something to monitor heading into October.

🌎 South America — Spring Weather Becoming More Volatile

Spring is underway across the Southern Hemisphere, and South America’s weather pattern is becoming increasingly energetic.

Warm, humid air spreading southward from the Amazon can collide with cooler air moving north from Argentina and Patagonia.

That setup can generate powerful thunderstorms across portions of:

🇦🇷 Argentina
🇵🇾 Paraguay
🇺🇾 Uruguay
🇧🇷 Southern Brazil

Large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall and isolated tornadoes can accompany the strongest spring storm systems.

Farther north, tropical thunderstorms remain widespread around the Amazon Basin.

🇦🇺 Australia — Spring Heat Builds

Australia is moving deeper into spring, and temperatures are beginning to rise rapidly in several regions.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says hot conditions are affecting southeastern Australia, while milder weather prevails elsewhere.

The transition toward Australia’s warm season will increasingly bring periods of heat, thunderstorms and elevated bushfire weather.

Northern Australia is also approaching the start of its traditional wet-season buildup.

🌊 El Niño Becoming a Major Global Weather Driver

Perhaps the biggest planetary-scale weather story heading into October is the strengthening 2026 El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organization reported earlier this month that El Niño is firmly established and expected to intensify substantially during the coming months.

El Niño can shift the location of tropical rainfall, alter jet streams and influence storm tracks across much of the planet.

Its effects are already particularly important in the tropics.

One notable impact has been increased atmospheric conditions unfavorable for Atlantic hurricanes, helping contribute to the relatively quiet Atlantic season.

At the same time, Pacific tropical cyclone activity can remain considerably more active.

The developing El Niño will become increasingly important as attention turns toward winter 2026–27 across North America, Europe and Asia.

⚠️ Orbis Weather — Global Hazard Watch

🔴 Highest Attention

🌧️ U.S. Northeast — lingering nor’easter rain and coastal flooding early Monday.

🌀 Western Pacific — Typhoon Surigae/Queenie moving northeast toward waters south of Japan.

🌧️ Southern India — locally heavy to very heavy monsoon rainfall.

🟠 Elevated Attention

⛈️ Southwestern United States — thunderstorms and localized flash flooding.

🌧️ Central America — wet-season flash flooding and landslide risk.

💨 United Kingdom — stronger Atlantic system and heavy rain arriving during the week.

⛈️ Southern South America — increasingly volatile spring thunderstorms.

🟡 Monitor

🌀 Atlantic Ocean — Tropical Depression Fay and any new tropical disturbances.

🌡️ Australia — increasing spring heat.

🌍 Global Tropics — changing rainfall patterns associated with strengthening El Niño.

📅 The Week Ahead

The transition from September into October is becoming increasingly obvious across the Northern Hemisphere.

Autumn storm systems are strengthening across North America and Europe, while the tropics remain active enough that hurricane and typhoon threats cannot yet be ignored.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite transition is underway: spring warmth is building across Australia, southern Africa and South America, bringing a gradual increase in heat and severe-thunderstorm potential.

And above everything sits the rapidly evolving Pacific Ocean.

El Niño is becoming one of the most important global weather stories heading into the final months of 2026.

Orbis Weather will continue tracking tropical cyclones, severe storms, floods, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes and other major natural hazards around the world throughout the week.

Stay weather-aware. Stay prepared. 🌎

Forecast information can change quickly. Always follow official national and local weather agencies for watches, warnings and emergency instructions.