🌀 Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: Pacific Roars While Atlantic Storms Stay at Sea

September 29, 2026 | Orbis Weather

Tropical activity remains unusually busy as September draws to a close, with six active tropical cyclones across the Atlantic, Eastern/Central Pacific and Western Pacific early Tuesday.

The Pacific is clearly the main area of concern this week. Hurricane Polo has made landfall in Mexico, Hurricane Nolo remains a major hurricane west of Hawaii, Tropical Storm Rachel is strengthening off Mexico, and Typhoon Surigae continues across the western Pacific.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic has Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna, but neither currently poses a direct threat to the United States.

🌎 ATLANTIC BASIN

🌀 Tropical Storm Fay

Fay continues its long and unusual journey across the central Atlantic.

As of early September 29, Fay had regained tropical-storm strength, with winds around 40 mph (65 km/h). The storm remains far from land and is moving generally southwestward over the open Atlantic.

Conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, and Fay should weaken into a depression or remnant low during the next couple of days.

Threat to land: 🟢 Low
Threat to Florida/U.S.: 🟢 None expected

No coastal watches or warnings are currently associated with Fay.

🌀 Tropical Storm Hanna

The Atlantic’s newest named storm, Hanna, formed well east-northeast of Bermuda.

Early Tuesday, Hanna had maximum sustained winds of approximately 45 mph (75 km/h) and was moving east-southeastward.

The system is expected to remain over the open North Atlantic and move farther away from North America.

Threat to land: 🟢 Low
Threat to U.S.: 🟢 None expected

Most importantly, beyond Fay and Hanna, the National Hurricane Center currently shows no additional tropical cyclone formation expected across the Atlantic during the next seven days.

🇺🇸 Florida, Caribbean & Gulf Outlook

For Florida and the southeastern United States, the tropical picture remains relatively quiet.

There are currently no developing tropical disturbances threatening Florida, the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, and neither Fay nor Hanna is forecast to approach the U.S. mainland.

That makes the Atlantic considerably quieter than the Pacific heading into October.

🌊 EASTERN PACIFIC

🔴 Hurricane Polo — Major Mexico Threat

Hurricane Polo is the week’s most immediate land threat.

Polo made landfall along the western coast of Baja California Sur late Monday night, just south of Las Barrancas, with sustained winds around 110 mph (175 km/h).

The hurricane is crossing the Baja California peninsula and is expected to move toward the Gulf of California and northwestern mainland Mexico, bringing another round of dangerous weather.

The primary hazards include:

• 🌧️ Torrential rainfall

• 🌊 Flash flooding

• ⛰️ Mudslides in mountainous terrain

• 💨 Destructive hurricane-force winds

• 🌊 Dangerous coastal surf and seas

Rapid weakening is expected once Polo moves farther inland Tuesday.

🇺🇸 Southwest U.S. Flood Risk

Polo’s circulation could also pull substantial tropical moisture northward into the southwestern United States.

This could enhance thunderstorms and increase the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, particularly across portions of the Desert Southwest.

Overall threat: 🔴 HIGH

🟠 Tropical Storm Rachel

Tropical Storm Rachel continues strengthening over the eastern Pacific southwest of Mexico.

Late Monday, Rachel had sustained winds around 60 mph (95 km/h) while moving west-northwest roughly parallel to Mexico’s southwestern coastline.

Additional strengthening is expected, and Rachel could become a hurricane during the next day or so.

The current forecast keeps Rachel primarily offshore, although residents and marine interests along southwestern Mexico should continue monitoring its progress.

Current threat: 🟠 Moderate
Development trend: ⬆️ Strengthening

🌺 CENTRAL PACIFIC

🔴 Major Hurricane Nolo

One of the world’s strongest active tropical cyclones is Hurricane Nolo in the Central Pacific.

Late Monday, Nolo remained a major hurricane with sustained winds around 125 mph (205 km/h) while moving northwestward west-southwest of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Earlier in its life cycle, Nolo reached winds around 155 mph, putting it close to Category 5 intensity.

The storm is moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands, but dangerous conditions are expected farther northwest around portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument.

Large ocean swells and hazardous marine conditions remain important concerns.

Main Hawaiian Islands: 🟡 Monitor
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands: 🔴 Significant marine threat

🌏 WESTERN PACIFIC

🌀 Typhoon Surigae

The western Pacific remains active with Surigae, which has been moving near Japan’s southwestern islands.

The system tracked near the Daito Islands after passing through the broader Okinawa region and is now expected to continue generally east-northeastward over waters south of Japan.

Dangerous seas are a major concern, with waves around 7 meters (23 feet) reported near the storm.

Surigae should eventually accelerate northeastward and transition into an extratropical cyclone during the first days of October.

Japan threat: 🟠 Elevated marine/coastal impacts
Primary hazards: 🌊 High seas, 💨 strong winds and 🌧️ heavy rain

📊 Global Tropical Snapshot

The global tropics therefore remain far more active in the Pacific than the Atlantic as September comes to an end.

🔭 What We’re Watching This Week

🔴 1. Hurricane Polo

The biggest immediate concern is flooding, damaging winds and mudslides across northwestern Mexico, followed by the possibility of tropical moisture enhancing rainfall over the southwestern United States.

🔴 2. Hurricane Nolo

Although moving away from Hawaii’s main population centers, Nolo remains a powerful hurricane capable of generating dangerous seas across the central Pacific.

🟠 3. Tropical Storm Rachel

Rachel could become the Pacific’s next hurricane while remaining offshore from southwestern Mexico.

🟠 4. Typhoon Surigae

Surigae will continue producing hazardous seas around Japan before eventually accelerating northeastward.

🟢 5. Atlantic Basin

Fay and Hanna remain over the open Atlantic, while no additional tropical cyclone development is currently expected during the next seven days.

🌀 Orbis Weather Outlook

The final days of September are providing a striking contrast between the world’s two major Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone regions.

The Atlantic remains comparatively quiet near populated areas, with Fay and Hanna staying well out to sea.

Across the Pacific, however, tropical activity is widespread—from Mexico and Hawaii all the way to Japan.

Hurricane Polo represents the most immediate threat to populated areas, while Hurricane Nolo, Tropical Storm Rachel and Typhoon Surigae will all require monitoring through the remainder of the week.

Orbis Weather will continue tracking every major tropical system worldwide as conditions change.

Information based on updates available Tuesday morning, September 29, 2026. Tropical cyclone intensity and forecast tracks can change rapidly. Residents in threatened areas should follow official local warnings and the latest forecasts from national meteorological agencies.