WESTERN PACIFIC Tropical Weather Update – Monday, November 2, 2026

By Paul Harrison | Orbis Weather | November 2, 2026

Typhoon In-fa Remains Active South of Japan as Forecasters Monitor Its Movement Across the Western Pacific

The Western Pacific tropical weather picture is dominated by Typhoon In-fa (30W), a powerful tropical cyclone moving west-northwestward across the open waters south of Japan.

As of Monday, November 2, 2026, In-fa remains the only confirmed active tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). No additional tropical disturbances are identified in its latest basin-wide advisory.

Although In-fa is currently well offshore, its future track, intensity changes and potential effects on maritime operations warrant continued monitoring.

Meanwhile, the Philippines is experiencing northeast monsoon conditions across northern Luzon, with localized thunderstorms elsewhere. Forecasters are also monitoring the possibility of rainfall associated with the typhoon’s broader circulation.

1. Current Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Typhoon In-fa: latest developments

Typhoon In-fa continues to move through the western North Pacific, southeast of Japan’s southern island territories.

The JTWC’s November 2 advisory positioned the cyclone approximately 152 nautical miles south of Iwo To at 00:00 UTC, with maximum one-minute sustained winds of 70 knots, approximately 130 km/h (81 mph).

The storm had been tracking west-northwestward during the preceding six hours.

Wind-speed estimates differ between JTWC and PAGASA because the agencies use different averaging periods and analysis methods. Their figures should not be interpreted as directly interchangeable.

What happens next?

Several atmospheric factors will determine In-fa’s development and movement:

• Steering winds: The position and strength of the subtropical ridge will influence the cyclone’s track.

• Wind shear: Stronger upper-level winds could disrupt the storm’s circulation and weaken its thunderstorms.

• Ocean temperatures: Warm water can support tropical cyclone intensity, provided other atmospheric conditions remain favorable.

• Dry air: Dry air entering the circulation can interfere with organized convection and contribute to weakening.

These are the principal factors to monitor rather than a claim that any particular strengthening or weakening scenario is certain.

The storm’s eventual track is especially important for shipping and marine interests south of Japan.

2. Philippines: tropical cyclone and monsoon outlook

PAGASA reports that Typhoon In-fa remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

The agency’s weekly outlook for October 30–November 6 indicates that a tropical cyclone may briefly enter PAR during November 2–3, although it is not expected to directly affect the Philippine landmass. Its trough could still contribute to showers and thunderstorms in the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

Northern Luzon

The northeast monsoon, locally known as Amihan, is affecting extreme northern Luzon.

Expected conditions include partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rainfall across portions of the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region and Cagayan Valley.

The forecast does not indicate significant impacts from these light monsoon rains, although conditions can vary locally.

Central and southern Philippines

Across Metro Manila and much of the remaining country, localized thunderstorms remain the principal weather concern.

Heavy downpours during stronger thunderstorms can produce temporary street flooding, poor visibility and hazardous travel conditions.

PAGASA specifically identifies the possibility of flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms.

3. Japan and the Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon In-fa’s location south of Japan makes its movement relevant to marine operations around the western Pacific island chains.

The most immediate concerns for vessels operating near the cyclone include:

• Dangerous seas and large swells.

• Strong winds near the storm’s circulation.

• Heavy tropical rainfall and reduced visibility.

• Rapidly changing conditions along shipping routes.

These hazards are associated with the cyclone’s marine environment and do not imply that destructive winds are currently affecting Japan’s populated islands.

Residents and maritime operators should consult the Japan Meteorological Agency for the latest official forecasts and local warnings.

4. Taiwan and the northern South China Sea

No separate tropical cyclone was identified in the JTWC’s November 2 western North Pacific tropical disturbance summary.

That does not mean the region is free from hazardous weather.

Seasonal northeasterly winds, passing weather systems and localized thunderstorms can still produce rough seas, heavy rainfall and coastal hazards.

For Taiwan, the northern South China Sea and nearby waters, the main monitoring priorities are changing winds, sea conditions and any new tropical disturbances that develop.

At present, there is insufficient evidence from the reviewed basin-wide advisory to identify a second organized tropical cyclone threatening these areas.

5. Guam, the Mariana Islands and Micronesia

The waters surrounding Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia remain important areas for tropical cyclone monitoring.

In-fa previously traveled through the broader western Pacific region before moving toward waters south of Japan.

The November 2 basin-wide JTWC advisory does not identify another active tropical cyclone or separate tropical disturbance across the western North Pacific.

However, tropical showers, thunderstorms and locally hazardous marine conditions can develop even without a named storm.

Residents and marine operators should monitor the National Weather Service in Guam for local forecasts, thunderstorm advisories and marine warnings.

6. Western Pacific tropical development outlook: next 5–7 days

The principal tropical cyclone concern for the immediate period remains In-fa.

This table is a monitoring outlook, not a day-by-day forecast of new storm formation.

Could another typhoon develop?

The western Pacific remains capable of producing tropical cyclones during November. Unlike the Atlantic, tropical cyclone activity in this basin is not confined to a formally defined six-month season.

Nevertheless, the absence of additional disturbances in the latest JTWC advisory does not establish a zero probability of development over the coming week.

New tropical systems can organize from disturbances embedded within tropical convergence zones or other favorable atmospheric environments.

Orbis Weather assessment: In-fa is the immediate priority. There is no verified basis in the reviewed November 2 advisory to announce a second developing typhoon.

7. Marine hazards and shipping conditions

The western Pacific supports major international shipping routes connecting Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Southeast Asia.

Typhoon In-fa presents a particular concern for vessels traveling through waters near its circulation.

Strong winds and large waves can extend well beyond a cyclone’s center, while swells may travel hundreds of miles from the storm.

For mariners, the main safety considerations are avoiding the storm’s forecast track, checking official high-seas warnings and accounting for rapidly changing wave conditions.

PAGASA’s early November 2 forecast indicated generally slight to moderate coastal waters across the Philippines, with wave heights ranging from approximately 0.6 to 2.5 meters (2–8 feet). These are broad national conditions, not a description of seas near In-fa’s center.

8. Understanding Western Pacific typhoon classifications

Different meteorological agencies use different wind averaging methods and cyclone classification systems.

The Japan Meteorological Agency generally uses 10-minute sustained winds, while the JTWC uses one-minute sustained winds.

As a result, the same storm may have different reported maximum wind speeds from different agencies.

These differences do not necessarily indicate conflicting observations or rapid changes in storm intensity.

9. What residents should watch over the next 48 hours

The following developments deserve particular attention:

• Typhoon In-fa’s movement: Any shift toward populated islands or important maritime routes.

• Changes in intensity: Evidence of strengthening or weakening as the storm interacts with its surrounding environment.

• Philippine rainfall: Localized thunderstorms and any enhanced rainfall associated with the storm’s trough.

• Northern Luzon monsoon: Changes in wind strength, rainfall and coastal conditions.

• New tropical disturbances: Any new JTWC, JMA or PAGASA advisory identifying additional organized activity.

Residents should distinguish between an official tropical cyclone warning and general advice to monitor changing weather conditions.

10. Western Pacific tropical weather summary

As of November 2, 2026, Typhoon In-fa is the only confirmed active tropical cyclone identified in the reviewed western North Pacific JTWC advisory.

The cyclone remains south of Japan and outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

The Philippines is experiencing northeast monsoon conditions across extreme northern Luzon, while localized thunderstorms continue to pose potential flash-flood and landslide risks elsewhere.

The principal concerns across the wider region are In-fa’s future movement, hazardous marine conditions near the storm and the possibility of locally heavy tropical rainfall.

The bottom line: Typhoon In-fa remains the main story in the western Pacific. Its track and intensity should be monitored closely, but there is no confirmed second active tropical cyclone in the latest reviewed basin-wide advisory.

11. Official weather sources and verification

Orbis Weather uses recognized meteorological agencies and publicly available weather information to prepare its independent reporting.

The following sources were consulted or identified for this update.

Editorial methodology and data limitations

This report was prepared using publicly accessible meteorological information available for November 2, 2026, including PAGASA’s 4:00 a.m. Philippine Standard Time forecast and the JTWC’s 06:00 UTC basin-wide advisory.

Storm locations, wind speeds and movements are reported with their observation times because tropical cyclone conditions can change between advisories.

Where official agencies use different wind averaging periods, figures are attributed to their respective sources rather than presented as identical measurements.

The outlook includes explanatory meteorological analysis to help readers understand potential risks. Such analysis should not be mistaken for a new official forecast.

No independent storm intensity measurements, locally observed damage reports or additional cyclone formation probabilities have been invented for this article.

Important weather safety disclaimer

Orbis Weather is an independent weather information and news publication. It is not a national meteorological service or emergency management authority.

This article is provided for general information and educational purposes. It does not replace official tropical cyclone warnings, evacuation instructions, maritime advisories or emergency notices.

For decisions involving personal safety, aviation, shipping or emergency preparations, always follow the latest bulletins issued by the responsible national weather agency and local authorities.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a typhoon active in the western Pacific today?

Yes. Typhoon In-fa (30W) is active as of November 2, 2026, south of Japan.

Is Typhoon In-fa heading toward the Philippines?

In-fa remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. PAGASA’s weekly outlook indicates that a cyclone could briefly enter PAR without directly affecting the Philippine landmass. Its trough may still contribute to rainfall in some eastern regions.

Are there any other tropical storms forming?

The reviewed November 2 JTWC basin-wide advisory identifies no additional tropical cyclones or tropical disturbances.

Can typhoons develop in November?

Yes. Tropical cyclones can develop throughout the year in the western North Pacific, although activity varies seasonally.

Why do typhoon wind speeds differ between agencies?

Different agencies use different wind averaging periods, satellite analysis techniques and classification standards.

Where can I find the latest official typhoon warnings?

Consult JMA, JTWC, PAGASA or the responsible national meteorological agency for the location concerned.