Weekly Global Weather Watch: Weekly Analysis, November 2, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Review week: Monday, October 26 to Sunday, November 1, 2026. Outlook week: Monday, November 2 to Sunday, November 8, 2026. Data checked through about 12:30 UTC on November 2.

The week at a glance

Two Bay of Bengal cyclones dominated the week: Arnab struck eastern India with deadly floods and landslides, and Murasu is due ashore tonight.

• Cyclone Arnab made landfall near Yanam, Andhra Pradesh, early on October 28. Reported deaths: 7 in Andhra Pradesh and 6 in Odisha, with 10 missing after a landslide.
• Super Typhoon In-fa peaked at 150 mph (240 km/h) on October 28 and passed over remote Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands. No casualties were reported.
• The US Southwest had a multi-day flood event. One person died in Henderson, Nevada, and towns in Colorado and Arizona were evacuated on November 1.
• Syria had flash floods that killed at least 5 people, and collapsed a bridge on the Raqqa–Aleppo road.
• Hong Kong recorded its warmest October since records began in 1884.

National weather services and civil protection agencies issue the official warnings. Follow evacuation orders immediately.

Tropical cyclones

Five storms were active during the week, and three affected land. The North Atlantic and the Southern Hemisphere had none.

Arnab. The cyclone crossed the coast southwest of Yanam between 20:30 UTC Oct 27 and 02:30 UTC Oct 28. Winds at landfall were 125–135 km/h (78–84 mph), gusting to 150 km/h (93 mph), according to IMD figures reported by Outlook India. Andhra Pradesh deaths rose from 3 (AP, Oct 28) to 7 (Down To Earth, Nov 2). In Odisha, 6 died and 10 were missing after landslides (National Herald, Nov 1). Andhra Pradesh has submitted a preliminary damage estimate of Rs 4,600 crore (Down To Earth, Nov 2).

Murasu. IMD expects landfall between Nellore and Narsapur, close to Ongole, between 18:00 and 22:30 UTC on November 2. Forecast winds are 100–110 km/h (62–68 mph), gusting to 120 km/h (75 mph), with a storm surge of 1–1.5 m (3–5 ft). IMD has a Red Message warning for the Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts. Parrys in Chennai had 149.2 mm (5.87 in) of rain in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. local time on November 2 (ETV Bharat). No deaths were reported as of November 2.

In-fa. The National Weather Service in Guam reported that the typhoon’s eye passed over Agrihan at Category 4 strength. Sources differ on the date: October 30 or 31 local time. High surf of 12–18 ft (3.7–5.5 m) was forecast for Saipan and Tinian. At 06:00 UTC November 2, JMA placed In-fa near the Ogasawara Islands with winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h).

Floods, heavy rain and landslides

The deadliest flooding came from Cyclone Arnab’s rain in Odisha, India, while the US Southwest and Syria also had fatal flash floods.

Odisha, India. Patrapur in Ganjam district recorded 546 mm (21.5 in) of rain in the 24 hours to October 29 (The Watchers, Oct 29). About 42,500 people were affected in Ganjam and 20,000 in Gajapati.

US Southwest. Storms on Friday, October 30 forced vehicle rescues in Phoenix and Scottsdale and three swift-water rescues in Henderson (AP, Oct 31). On November 1, evacuations were ordered in Pagosa Springs and La Plata County, Colorado, and in Sedona, Camp Verde and Gisela, Arizona (AP, Nov 2). The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was forecast to crest at 20–21.9 ft (6.1–6.7 m), above the 1911 level of about 17.8 ft. It had reached about 14 ft (4.3 m) by Sunday evening.

Syria. Flash floods hit Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Aleppo, Hasakah and Homs. About 375 families were evacuated from three camps, according to the Ministry of Emergency (Al Jazeera, Oct 30). Most of the dead were children, in both reported tolls.

Heat, cold, drought and wildfire

October closed with record warmth in Hong Kong and early snow in northern Japan, while US drought eased slightly overall but deepened in the Mid-South.

Drought. The US Drought Monitor map valid October 27 showed 41.39% of the US and 49.5% of the contiguous US in drought, affecting 93.1 million people in 43 states (drought.gov, Oct 29). A week earlier, the figures were 42.5% and 50.67%. Conditions improved in the Southwest after the rain but worsened in Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri, where exceptional (D4) drought spread. In the Pacific, El Niño-related droughts and water shortages were reported in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, the Solomon Islands and Palau (PACNEWS, Oct 29).

Wildfire. The US National Interagency Fire Center held the national preparedness level at 1, its lowest, on November 1. The year to date stood at 67,640 fires and 9,388,904 acres (3.8 million ha), 133% and 146% of the 10-year averages. The Sisi Fire in Washington covered 4,816 acres (1,949 ha), was 40% contained and threatened homes.

Earthquakes and volcanoes

The week had five earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater, none reported as damaging, while Mayon in the Philippines erupted explosively on October 30.

USGS set no tsunami flag for any of these events.

The latest Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report covers October 22–28, as summarized by The Watchers on October 30. It listed new activity or unrest at five volcanoes and ongoing activity at 23.

Climate signals

El Niño is strong and still strengthening, and agencies expect it to peak around November–December. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), in its October 8 discussion, kept an El Niño Advisory in place. It reported a monthly Niño-3.4 anomaly of +2.1°C (+3.8°F) and said a strong-to-very strong event is likely through January–March 2027. CPC gave an 83% chance of a historic-strength event for October–December. It said El Niño-type impacts are more likely, “though not guaranteed.” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported a weekly relative Niño3.4 value of +2.88°C (+5.2°F) for the week ending October 25, the highest in its weekly record since 2008 (BoM, Oct 27). The latest global figure is from Copernicus: September 2026 was the second-warmest September on record, 1.63°C (2.93°F) above pre-industrial levels (published Oct 9). CPC’s next ENSO update is due November 12.

Week ahead

The week opens with Murasu’s landfall in India, extreme rain warnings in southern Italy and severe storms on the US Plains.

In its October 27 extended outlook, SPC rated uncertainty “high” for this US storm system because of the trough’s placement and timing. NHC also gives a low pressure area northeast of the Bahamas a 20% chance of becoming subtropical later in the week.

About this analysis

This weekly analysis summarizes the world’s notable weather and natural hazards from official agencies, monitoring services and news reports. Temperatures are in Fahrenheit with Celsius in brackets, rainfall in inches with millimeters, and winds in mph with km/h; climate anomalies are given in Celsius first. Times are UTC unless a local zone is named. Death tolls often change as reports come in, and coverage of some regions, especially parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, is limited. It does not replace official warnings.

• Landfall: the moment a tropical cyclone’s center crosses the coast.
• 1-minute vs 10-minute winds: US agencies average winds over one minute, and JMA and IMD over longer periods, so their peak figures differ for the same storm.
• PAGER: the USGS system that estimates earthquake impacts; green is the lowest of four levels.
• El Niño: a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that shifts weather patterns worldwide.
• D4 drought: “exceptional drought,” the most severe category on the US Drought Monitor.

Frequently asked questions

Is Cyclone Murasu hitting the same area as Arnab? Partly. Arnab came ashore near Yanam in Andhra Pradesh on October 28, and IMD expects Murasu to cross farther south, near Ongole, on the night of November 2. Both bring heavy rain to coastal Andhra Pradesh within a week.

Why do sources give different death tolls for Arnab? Tolls were reported by different officials at different times and rose as landslides in Odisha were reported. Andhra Pradesh figures ranged from 3 on October 28 to 7 by November 2, and no consolidated official toll had been published.

Did any earthquake cause damage this week? No damage was reported from the week’s five earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater. Three were near Vanuatu, one was deep beneath Japan, and one was southeast of Easter Island.

How strong is the current El Niño? NOAA describes it as strengthening and likely to be strong to very strong through early 2027. Australia’s weekly Niño3.4 value reached the highest in its weekly record since 2008.

Is anything brewing in the Atlantic? No Atlantic storm was active this week, and the last one, Subtropical Storm Josephine, ended October 22. NHC gives a possible low northeast of the Bahamas a 20% chance of becoming subtropical within seven days.

Sources

Tropical cyclones

• NHC Central Pacific outlook, 2 a.m. HST Nov 2; NHC Atlantic outlook, 7 a.m. EST Nov 2; NHC 2026 archive(Vance, Olana advisories, Oct 23–30)
• JMA typhoon data, Nov 2 15:45 JST
• JTWC Murasu warning via Cyclocane, 09:00 UTC Nov 2; IMD cyclone information, Bulletin No. 10, Nov 1
• Fox Weather on In-fa, Oct 31; RNZ via Scoop, Oct 30; EM Morning Brief, Oct 30
• Outlook India, Oct 28; AP via Bay News 9, Oct 28; Down To Earth, Nov 2; National Herald, Nov 1; ETV Bharat, Nov 2
• Riviera Maya News, Oct 31

Floods and landslides

• The Watchers: Odisha floods, Oct 29; The Watchers: record tides, Oct 30
• AP via ABC News: Southwest rain, Oct 31; AP via FireRescue1: evacuations, Nov 2
• Al Jazeera: Syria floods, Oct 30; Hawar News: Syria, Oct 31
• Jerusalem Post: Israel floods, Oct 28; Newsweek România: Constanța, Oct 27
• Al Jazeera: Bhutan glacial lake, Oct 30; Kathmandu Post: Nepal, Oct 31

Heat, cold, drought and wildfire

• The HK HUB: Hong Kong October, Nov 1; News On Japan: Hokkaido snow, Oct 29; SnowBrains: Mount Fuji, Oct 30; WSMV: Tennessee, Oct 29
• US Drought Monitor, map valid Oct 27; Drought.gov, Oct 29; WeatherBug drought update, Oct 22
• PACNEWS, Oct 29; NIFC situation report, Nov 1

Earthquakes, volcanoes and climate

• USGS earthquake catalog query, retrieved Nov 2
• The Watchers: Weekly Volcanic Activity Report, Oct 22–28, Oct 30; GMA News: Mayon, Oct 30
• NOAA CPC ENSO discussion, Oct 8; BoM ENSO update, Oct 27; Copernicus September bulletin, Oct 9

Week ahead

• SPC Day 2 outlook, Nov 1; SPC Day 4–8 outlook, Oct 27; WPC short-range discussion, Nov 2
• Meteoalarm Italy, Nov 1; Meteoalarm Greece, Nov 2
• BoM severe weather update, Nov 2; ABC News: Queensland heatwave, Nov 2
• JMA In-fa forecast, Nov 2