Weekly Earth Watch: Volcanoes, Earthquakes & Natural Hazards – Week ending November 1, 2026

Nov 1, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

At a glance

Mayon volcano in the Philippines erupted on October 30 and its alert level was raised to 3, the week’s main hazard story. Earthquake activity was moderate, with no event of magnitude 7 or greater. This edition covers Monday, October 26, to Sunday, November 1, 2026, with data to about 12:30 UTC on November 1.

• Earthquakes: 14 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater and 127 of 4.5 or greater worldwide. The largest was a magnitude 6.4 in the remote southeast Pacific. A persistent swarm continued in northern Vanuatu.
• Tsunami: no tsunami warnings, advisories or threats were reported during the week.
• Volcanoes: Mayon raised to Alert Level 3 after a 3 km ash plume. Kilauea remains paused, with its next fountaining episode forecast for November 3-10.
• Storms: Cyclone Arnab killed three people in Andhra Pradesh, India. Typhoon In-fa crossed the northern Mariana Islands and was last reported south-southeast of Japan’s Iwo To. A new storm, 04B, is heading for India’s east coast.
• Other hazards: deadly floods in Haiti, river floods in northern Argentina, record tides on the California coast, and minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions.
• Products used: USGS earthquake catalogue (queried 12:29-12:30 UTC, November 1); Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for October 22-28 (via The Watchers, October 30); USGS HVO Kilauea update (October 31, 20:36 UTC); JTWC warnings (October 31, 09:00 UTC, and November 1, 03:00 UTC); NHC outlooks (November 1, about 05:00 UTC); NOAA SWPC forecast (October 31, 12:30 UTC).

Volcanoes

Mayon’s eruption on October 30 was the most significant volcanic event of the week. The latest Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report, covering October 22-28, lists 28 volcanoes: 5 with new activity or unrest and 23 with ongoing activity.

New activity and unrest

Mayon (Philippines). The six-minute eruption sent ash west-southwest, with ashfall reported in Camalig, Guinobatan and upland Legazpi City (ColombiaOne, October 30-31). PHIVOLCS said Level 3 means an “increased tendency towards a hazardous eruption”, with pyroclastic flows and lava possible within days to weeks. Tabaco City ordered a mandatory evacuation. By 2 p.m. on October 30, the Office of Civil Defense Bicol counted 205 families evacuated in Camalig and 152 in Tabaco City; these are preliminary figures. No casualties were reported. On the morning of October 31, a weaker ash emission reached 200 m and crater glow was visible (GMA, October 31). Residents should follow PHIVOLCS and local evacuation orders immediately.

Kilauea (Hawaii). The summit eruption has been paused since episode 55 on October 17, when fountains reached about 220 m (720 ft). Summit tilt has recovered 16.2 microradians since then. HVO forecasts episode 56 for November 3-10, but notes uncertainty about whether the inflation pattern will hold (HVO, October 31). The alert level is Advisory, aviation Yellow.

Ambrym (Vanuatu). The Marum Crater eruption that began on September 19 continued, with two lava-lake vents active on October 27. The alert level remains 3 on Vanuatu’s 0-5 scale, with danger zones of 2 to 2.5 km around the active craters.

Continuing eruptions

Earthquakes

It was a moderate week with no damaging earthquakes reported. The largest, a magnitude 6.4, struck open ocean in the southeast Pacific far from any population.

Largest event: magnitude 6.4, southeast Pacific

USGS has not published a tectonic summary for this event. PAGER, a model estimate, gave a 99% chance of no fatalities. No damage was reported, and The Watchers (October 29) relayed that there was no tsunami threat. By the author’s comparison with the USGS catalogue, it is well below the 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater recorded worldwide so far in 2026.

Northern Vanuatu swarm. A cluster of shallow earthquakes about 165-221 km (103-137 miles) northwest of Port-Olry continued all week. It followed magnitude 6.9 and 6.3 shocks on October 24 (The Watchers, October 28). Five of the week’s magnitude 5.5+ events were in this cluster, including two of magnitude 6.0 on October 28 and November 1. A separate, deeper magnitude 6.2 struck 43 km east-southeast of Port-Olry on October 29 at 143 km (89 miles) depth. PAGER estimated that about 119,000 people were exposed to light shaking (intensity IV) from it. No damage has been reported from any of these events.

Panama follow-up. About 4,500 people remained in temporary shelters, mainly in Veraguas province, after the October 9 earthquake, according to an OCHA situation report of October 28 cited by PAHO. OCHA gives the magnitude as 7.5; USGS lists it as 7.7. Hundreds of families reported their homes as total losses.

All magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes, October 26 – November 1

Source: USGS catalogue query, queried 12:29 UTC, November 1, 2026. Magnitudes and locations may be revised.

Tsunami

No tsunami warnings, advisories or threat messages were reported during the week, and none of the week’s earthquakes was flagged by USGS as tsunami-related. As of November 1, tsunami.gov showed no tsunami warning, advisory, watch or threat in effect.

Other natural hazards

Cyclone Arnab in India caused the week’s deadliest storm impacts, while Typhoon In-fa stayed strong over the western Pacific with no casualties reported.

Cyclone Arnab. The three deaths reported by the National Disaster Response Force are preliminary. Mass evacuations in both states preceded landfall. In Odisha, around 42,500 people in Ganjam and 20,000 in Gajapati were affected by flooding (The Watchers, October 29).

Storm 04B. This new system is forecast to reach India’s southeast coast around November 2-3, days after Arnab. People in the path should follow India Meteorological Department warnings and local evacuation orders immediately.

Haiti floods. About a week of heavy rain caused the deaths, all reported in the South department. More than 7,100 houses were flooded and 91 destroyed. These figures are unofficial and may change.

What to watch next week

A larger explosive eruption at Mayon, or a strong earthquake in the Vanuatu swarm, would change the picture most. Neither can be predicted; agencies will update alert levels as conditions change.

About this report

Earthquake data come from the USGS catalogue, which is revised as analysts review events. Volcano information comes from the Smithsonian/USGS weekly report, which ends each Tuesday, plus national observatories for later events. Storm details come from JTWC, NHC and national agencies; casualty figures come from news and agency reports and are preliminary. National agencies and local authorities are the authority on what to do; follow evacuation orders immediately.

• Magnitude: a measure of the energy an earthquake releases. Each whole step is about 32 times more energy.
• Intensity (MMI): how strongly shaking is felt at a place, from I (not felt) to X and above (extreme).
• PAGER: the USGS model that estimates likely deaths and losses from shaking, shown as Green, Yellow, Orange or Red.
• Volcano alert level: each country’s own scale. In the Philippines, Level 3 on the 0-5 scale means magmatic unrest with a raised chance of hazardous eruption.
• Pyroclastic density current: a fast, ground-hugging flow of hot gas, ash and rock from a volcano.

Frequently asked questions

Is Mayon about to have a major eruption? Level 3 means a hazardous eruption is more likely, not certain. The timing and size of any eruption cannot be predicted. PHIVOLCS says entry into the Permanent Danger Zone should be prohibited.

Why does Vanuatu keep having earthquakes? A swarm has been active off northwest Espiritu Santo since at least October 24. By the author’s count of the USGS catalogue, 25 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater struck northern Vanuatu from October 27 to November 1. None has caused reported damage.

Was there any tsunami risk this week? No tsunami warnings or advisories were issued. The largest earthquake, magnitude 6.4, struck far from land, and no tsunami threat was reported.

Will storm 04B hit the same area as Cyclone Arnab? JTWC forecasts 04B to cross India’s southeast coast around November 2-3 and weaken over land. Arnab came ashore near Narsapur in Andhra Pradesh on October 28. Residents should follow India Meteorological Department and state warnings.

Sources

Earthquakes

• USGS catalogue, M5.5+, Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026 (queried Nov 1, 12:29 UTC)
• USGS count, M4.5+, same period (Nov 1)
• USGS catalogue, M7+, 2026 (queried Nov 1, 12:30 UTC)
• USGS event us7000ttxz and PAGER alerts (Nov 1)
• USGS event us7000tu4f and PAGER exposures (Nov 1)
• The Watchers: M6.4 southeast of Easter Island (Oct 29)
• The Watchers: M6.0 northwest of Port-Olry, Vanuatu (Oct 28)
• PAHO Natural Hazards Monitoring (Oct 30)

Volcanoes

• The Watchers: Weekly Volcanic Activity Report, October 22-28, 2026 (Oct 30, 15:22 UTC)
• GMA: Mayon live updates (Oct 30)
• GMA: Mayon spews ash; Alert Level 3 prevails (Oct 31)
• U.S. Embassy in the Philippines: Mayon alert (Oct 30, 09:28 UTC)
• ColombiaOne: Mayon evacuations (Oct 30, updated Oct 31)
• The Watchers: Mayon erupts (Oct 30)
• USGS HVO: Kilauea updates (Oct 31, 20:36 UTC)

Tsunami

• NOAA tsunami.gov (Nov 1)

Other hazards

• JTWC Typhoon 30W (In-fa) warning 32 (Oct 31, 09:00 UTC)
• JTWC Tropical Cyclone 04B warning 1 (Nov 1, 03:00 UTC)
• AccuWeather: Super Typhoon In-fa (updated Oct 30)
• The Watchers: Cyclone Arnab leaves 3 dead (Oct 28)
• The Watchers: Arnab floods in Odisha (Oct 29)
• The Watchers: Record tides in California (Oct 30)
• NHC and Eastern Pacific outlook (Nov 1)
• GDACS feed (Nov 1, 06:45 UTC)
• NOAA SWPC 3-day forecast (Oct 31, 12:30 UTC)