Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Weather Update: Sunday, November 1, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 7:00 AM EST (2:00 AM HST, 12:00 UTC) on Sunday, November 1, 2026. Based on the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2:00 AM HST, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 4:00 AM PST, and the NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion issued at 0405 UTC Saturday, October 31. Daylight saving time ended on the US mainland early this morning, so Pacific-zone products are now in PST.

At a glance

Both Pacific basins are free of tropical cyclones this morning, but forecasters give a low expected to form well southeast of Hawaii a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days.

• No active storms. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the eastern or central Pacific.
• No threat to land today. No storm has watches, warnings or a forecast landfall, so this report has no land-threat section.
• One area to watch. CPHC says a broad low should develop “in a couple of days” and a depression “could form by the middle to end of the week.” Chances: near 0 percent in 48 hours, 50 percent in 7 days.
• A very active season. NHC counts 20 named storms in the eastern Pacific, six above the 1991-2020 normal, with 8 major hurricanes.
• The season in both basins ends November 30.

The National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and national weather services, including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

There are no active tropical or subtropical cyclones, and no potential tropical cyclones, in the eastern or central North Pacific, according to the NHC home page updated at 08:00 UTC. NHC notes that marine warnings remain in effect for the eastern Pacific.

Disturbances to watch

One area is in the outlooks, and it has not formed yet: CPHC expects a broad low to develop well southeast of Hawaii, then drift west to west-northwest.

CPHC says “environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development,” and the system “could form by the middle to end of the week as it moves westward to west-northwestward over the Central Pacific basin.” The 7-day chance rose from 40 percent in the outlook issued at 8:00 PM HST Friday.

Off southern Mexico, NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion issued at 0405 UTC Saturday reported fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 6 to 8 feet [1.8 to 2.4 m], forecast to “diminish by Mon night.” It placed the monsoon trough from 08N79W to 05N100W.

Season so far

The 2026 season is running well above normal in both basins, by NHC’s own count as of 09 UTC November 1.

Figures in brackets are NHC’s comparison with the 1991-2020 normal, from its season summaries. Central Pacific counts include eastern Pacific storms that crossed 140°W. The full-season average comes from NHC climatology.

The most recent storms were Hurricane Vance (October 21-29), which peaked at 100 knots, or 115 mph [185 km/h], and Tropical Storm Olana (October 25-26) in the central Pacific. On October 25 the AP reported that a weakening Vance was still expected to bring heavy rain to western Mexico. AccuWeather, on October 28, forecast flash-flood risks for Hawaii from former Tropical Storm Olana.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO discussion of October 8 keeps an El Niño Advisory in place: “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027.”

What to watch next

• Today and Monday: whether CPHC’s outlooks show the broad low forming southeast of Hawaii; NHC repeats the same area in its eastern Pacific outlook.
• Midweek to late week: CPHC’s stated window for a possible tropical depression.
• Monday night: NHC expects the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds to diminish, per its Tropical Weather Discussion.
• November 12: the next NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion.
• November 30: the official end of the eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons.

About this report

This daily update covers the eastern North Pacific, east of 140°W, where the National Hurricane Center in Miami is responsible, and the central North Pacific, from 140°W to the International Date Line, covered by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. It draws on NHC and CPHC outlooks, discussions and season summaries, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, NWS Honolulu and news reports, each listed below with its issue time. Times follow the zone of each product: HST for CPHC, PST for NHC’s Pacific outlook, and UTC for the discussion. Conditions can change between issuances, so the latest official product always takes precedence.

• Tropical Weather Outlook: a routine NHC or CPHC product giving the chance that a disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and 7 days.
• Tropical depression: a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 38 mph [62 km/h] or less; it is named once winds reach tropical-storm strength.
• Major hurricane: a hurricane of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of at least 111 mph [178 km/h].
• Monsoon trough: a band of low pressure and showers near the equator that often seeds eastern Pacific storms.
• Gap winds: strong winds that funnel through low passes in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America, such as the Tehuantepecer over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a storm in the Pacific right now? No. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the eastern or central Pacific this morning. The only area in the outlooks is a low that has not yet formed.

Is Hawaii at risk from the disturbance southeast of the islands? CPHC gives it a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days, moving west to west-northwest. The outlook does not mention any threat to the islands, and no watches or warnings are in effect.

Is anything threatening Mexico or Central America? No tropical cyclone is threatening land. The main hazard NHC noted near the coast was strong gap winds and rough seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a marine concern rather than a storm.

How unusual has this season been? Very. NHC’s season summaries put both basins above the 1991-2020 normal for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. The central Pacific’s storm energy is more than four times its normal level.

Sources

• NHC home page, updated 08:00 UTC Nov 1, 2026
• CPHC Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 2:00 AM HST Nov 1, 2026 (and the 8:00 PM HST Oct 30 issuance for comparison)
• NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, central Pacific, with the eastern Pacific outlook issued 4:00 AM PST Nov 1, 2026
• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion, 0405 UTC Oct 31, 2026
• NWS Honolulu, map updated 5:42 PM HST Oct 31, 2026
• NHC 2026 eastern Pacific season summary, as of 09 UTC Nov 1, 2026
• NHC 2026 central Pacific season summary, as of 09 UTC Nov 1, 2026
• NHC tropical cyclone climatology, 1991-2020 averages
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, Oct 8, 2026
• AP via News4JAX: Vance no longer a hurricane but as a tropical storm still threatens Mexico’s Pacific coast, Oct 25, 2026
• AccuWeather: Tropical Rainstorm Olana bringing dangerous flash flood risks to Hawaii, Oct 28, 2026, updated Oct 29