Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Weather Update: Wednesday, November 4, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 6:46 a.m. EST Wednesday, November 4, 2026 (1:46 a.m. HST, 11:46 UTC). Based on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook issued 10:00 p.m. PST Tuesday, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) outlook issued 8:00 p.m. HST Tuesday (both 06:00 UTC Wednesday), and the NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion issued 10:05 UTC Wednesday.

At a glance

No tropical cyclones are active, but a broad low well southeast of Hawaii (EP95) is likely to become a tropical depression over the central Pacific in the next few days.

• No active storms in the eastern or central North Pacific, and no storm currently threatens land.
• EP95, far southeast of Hawaii, has a 50% chance of formation in 48 hours and 70% in 7 days. It is moving west to west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph (16 to 24 km/h).
• Off Central America, an elongated trough has a 20% chance in 48 hours and 40% in 7 days. NHC says it could bring heavy rain to parts of Central America later this week and over the weekend, with or without development.
• Season to date, NHC counts 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 8 major hurricanes east of 140°W, well above the full-season average.

The National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and national weather services, including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

There are no tropical or subtropical cyclones, and no potential tropical cyclones, in the eastern or central North Pacific. The National Hurricane Center homepage (updated 08:28 UTC Wednesday) lists none in either basin, and none in the Atlantic.

Disturbances to watch

Two areas are being monitored, and EP95 is the more likely to develop. NHC says a tropical depression is “likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days” from EP95.

For the Central America system, NHC says “a tropical depression could form by this weekend.” The discussion places a 1008 mb low along the monsoon trough near 8°N 91°W, with moderate to locally fresh south winds and numerous showers and thunderstorms east of it off Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The Tropical Weather Discussion also expects heavy rain across Central America from today through Friday. It says the heaviest rain is expected across southern and western Costa Rica, Panama and southern Nicaragua. The monsoon trough runs from 11°N 73°W west to 6°N 140°W, and the discussion carries no gap-wind gale such as a Tehuantepecer. Seas off Baja California are 6 to 8 feet (1.8 to 2.4 m).

Season so far

The 2026 eastern Pacific season is running far ahead of normal, with twice the average number of major hurricanes to date. Figures are NHC’s season summaries as of 09:00 UTC on November 2, and NHC reports no active cyclones today.

The central Pacific count includes storms that formed east of 140°W and crossed over; three formed in the central Pacific itself (Lala, Moke and Olana). NHC’s climatology page gives no 1991-2020 central Pacific average. The most recent storms were Vance in the eastern Pacific (October 21-29) and Tropical Storm Olana in the central Pacific (October 25-26). NHC lists no direct deaths in either basin.

The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion (October 8) keeps an El Niño Advisory in place and says “a strong-to-very strong El Niño” is likely through January-March 2027.

What to watch next

• EP95 over the next few days: NHC and CPHC Tropical Weather Outlooks will update its odds. If a depression forms west of 140°W, CPHC in Honolulu issues the advisories.
• Central America rain, today through Friday: national weather services in Costa Rica, Panama and Nicaragua issue local warnings; NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion tracks the setup.
• The trough off Central America by the weekend: NHC outlooks will show whether it becomes a depression as it drifts north.
• November 12: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues its next ENSO discussion.
• November 30: the eastern Pacific hurricane season ends, according to NHC.

About this report

This update covers the eastern North Pacific, east of 140°W, where the National Hurricane Center in Miami is responsible, and the central North Pacific, from 140°W to the International Date Line, covered by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. It draws on NHC and CPHC outlooks and discussions, NOAA season data and climatology, and NWS Honolulu. Times follow each product’s zone: Pacific Standard Time (PST, UTC-8) for NHC eastern Pacific products and Hawaii-Aleutian Standard Time (HST, UTC-10) for CPHC. Conditions change quickly, so newer official products replace anything here.

Glossary

• Tropical depression: an organized tropical cyclone too weak to be named; it gets a name if it reaches tropical storm strength.
• Invest (EP95): an area NHC has designated for closer study and special computer model runs; it is not yet a tropical cyclone.
• Monsoon trough: a long belt of low pressure near the equator where showers and thunderstorms gather and tropical systems often form.
• Gap winds (Tehuantepecer): strong winds funneled through mountain gaps in Mexico and Central America onto the Pacific.
• Major hurricane: a hurricane of Category 3 or stronger on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale.

Frequently asked questions

Is Hawaii under any tropical watch or warning? No. CPHC lists no active cyclones, and NWS Honolulu’s product listing carries no tropical watches or warnings. EP95 is well southeast of the islands, and no forecast track has been issued for it.

Will EP95 become a named storm? NHC gives it a 70% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression within 7 days. Its strength after that is not yet forecast, because advisories begin only once a system forms.

Is Mexico at risk this week? No storm threatens Mexico this morning. The trough off Central America is forecast to drift north, so later outlooks from NHC and Mexico’s SMN are worth checking.

How unusual is this season? Very active. NHC counts 8 major hurricanes east of 140°W, double the 1991-2020 full-season average of 4.

Sources

• NHC Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 10:00 p.m. PST Tue Nov 3, 2026
• CPHC Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 p.m. HST Tue Nov 3, 2026
• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion, 10:05 UTC Wed Nov 4, 2026
• National Hurricane Center homepage, updated 08:28 UTC Wed Nov 4, 2026
• NHC 2026 eastern Pacific season summary, as of 09:00 UTC Nov 2, 2026
• NHC 2026 central Pacific season summary, as of 09:00 UTC Nov 2, 2026
• NHC tropical cyclone climatology, 1991-2020 averages
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, October 8, 2026
• NWS Honolulu and its watch and warning listing, map updated 5:38 p.m. HST Tue Nov 3, 2026