Central America Weather & Natural Hazards Today – November 5, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather · Nov 5, 2026

At a glance

A developing low-pressure area off the Pacific coast is the main hazard for Central America in the 24 hours to Thursday morning, November 5, with heavy rain possible into the weekend.

• Tropical outlook: the NHC gives the low a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression in 48 hours and 60% in seven days.
• Rain: Panama has rain notices in force through Thursday night, Costa Rica is on a nationwide green alert, and El Salvador expects more rain on the coast and in the east. No deaths or major floods were reported.
• Earthquakes: quiet, with one magnitude 4.5 deep under western Nicaragua.
• Volcanoes: no major new eruption; Fuego and Santiaguito continue long-running activity in Guatemala.

National weather services and civil protection agencies issue the official warnings; follow them first.

Tropical outlook

A broad low-pressure area over the Pacific off Central America could become a tropical depression by the weekend, and forecasters warn it may bring heavy rain whether or not it develops.

The NHC said the low “is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers” and that “a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward.” It added: “Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend.”

MARN expects the low to approach El Salvador’s coast, with the heaviest rain most likely between the weekend and Monday, November 9, mainly on the coast and in the east. It has not given rainfall totals or a confirmed track. The two agencies’ figures differ slightly; the newest outlook from either replaces those above.

No tropical cyclone is active in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Eastern Pacific.

Rain, floods and landslides

Panama faces the region’s heaviest forecast rain, with up to 280 mm (11 in) possible through Thursday night, while alerts are in place from Costa Rica to El Salvador. No deaths, evacuations or major floods were reported in the latest agency updates.

Costa Rica’s green alert is the first, preventive stage of its alert system. The CNE linked it to the remains of a tropical wave, a trough over the isthmus and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Panama’s civil protection agency urged people not to cross rivers, streams or flooded streets and to stay away from slopes.

Earthquakes

It was a quiet day for earthquakes. The US Geological Survey (USGS) catalog lists one event of magnitude 2.5 or greater from southern Mexico to Panama in the 24 hours to 13:16 UTC (7:16 a.m. Central America time) on November 5.

At that depth, shaking at the surface is usually limited, and USGS listed no felt reports or tsunami. USGS catalog search, run at 13:16 UTC.

Guatemala’s seismic institute, INSIVUMEH, recorded a cluster of small quakes in Santa Rosa department on Wednesday, the largest a magnitude 3.6 at 6:13 a.m. local time, Prensa Libre reported. It was felt in San Rafael Las Flores and San Carlos Alzatate. A magnitude 3.2 followed at 3:48 p.m., with no injuries or damage reported, according to Publinews.

Volcanoes

No major new eruption was reported in Central America on November 4 or 5. Guatemala’s Fuego and Santiaguito continue their long-running eruptions. The table shows activity in the most recent Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report in its public feed, which covers October 8–14.

In mid-October, INSIVUMEH said it had seen no relevant change at Fuego after a social media video claimed a new fissure, and it warned that false or older information circulates, La Hora reported. Current alert levels come from INSIVUMEH in Guatemala, Nicaragua’s INETER and Mexico’s CENAPRED, and their latest bulletins replace the figures above.

What to watch next

• The Pacific low: whether it becomes a tropical depression by the weekend. The NHC updates its Tropical Weather Outlook several times a day.
• El Salvador, weekend to Monday, November 9: MARN expects rain to increase on the coast and in the east as the low approaches.
• Panama, through Thursday night: the IMHPA and SINAPROC rain notices run until 11:59 p.m. on November 5 and may be extended.
• Costa Rica: the CNE green alert remains in force; the national weather institute (IMN) issues updates.
• Guatemala’s volcanoes: INSIVUMEH publishes daily bulletins on Fuego and Santiaguito.

About this report

This report covers weather and natural hazards from southern Mexico to Panama in the 24 hours to about 7:15 a.m. Central America time (13:15 UTC) on Thursday, November 5, 2026, with forecasts for the days ahead. It draws on the NHC, national weather and civil protection agencies, the USGS earthquake catalog, the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and news reports. Agency figures are preliminary and change as updates arrive. National weather services and civil protection agencies issue the official warnings; follow them first.

Glossary

• Tropical depression: the weakest stage of a tropical cyclone, with sustained winds below 39 mph (63 km/h).
• Tropical wave: a band of low pressure moving westward across the tropics that brings showers and storms.
• Intertropical Convergence Zone: a belt near the equator where trade winds meet and storms form often.
• Lahar: a fast-moving flow of volcanic debris and water, often set off by heavy rain on a volcano’s slopes.

Frequently asked questions

Will a tropical storm hit Central America this weekend? Not necessarily. The NHC gives the low a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days, but warns that it could bring heavy rain to parts of Central America either way.

Which country faces the most rain? Panama’s forecast is the heaviest, with up to 280 mm (11 in) possible in southern Chiriquí, Veraguas and the Azuero highlands through Thursday night.

Was the earthquake in Nicaragua felt? USGS listed no felt reports for the magnitude 4.5 near Chinandega. It struck about 99 miles (159 km) deep, which usually limits shaking at the surface.

Is Volcano Fuego erupting? Yes, Fuego has been in a long-running eruption with frequent small to moderate explosions. INSIVUMEH’s daily bulletins give the latest activity and any changes in alert level.

Sources

Tropical outlook and rain

• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
• Infobae: Pacific low keeps El Salvador on alert
• El Diario de Hoy: El Salvador weather for November 5
• Televicentro: Rain in Honduras
• Infobae: Costa Rica green alert
• TVN: Panama rain watch to November 5
• Infobae: Panama saturated soils and flood threat

Earthquakes

• USGS earthquake catalog search
• Prensa Libre: Three quakes in Santa Rosa
• Publinews: Magnitude 3.2 in Santa Rosa

Volcanoes

• Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report feed
• La Hora: INSIVUMEH on Fuego fissure claim