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By Paul Harrison | Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

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Monday, November 9, 2026

Weekly Global Weather Watch: Weekly Analysis, November 9, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Review: Monday, November 2 to Sunday, November 8, 2026. Outlook: Monday, November 9 to Sunday, November 15, 2026. Times are UTC unless a local zone is named.

The week at a glance

A landfalling cyclone in India and a run of deadly flash floods, from Florida to Gaza and northern Iraq, defined the week.

  • Cyclone Murasu, India: came ashore near Ongole, Andhra Pradesh, on November 3. The state reported 8 deaths and preliminary damage of Rs 1,918.55 crore (November 5 review).
  • Florida Space Coast: more than 20 in (500 mm) of rain fell in parts of southern Brevard County on November 1–2. Two people died in Palm Bay.
  • Gaza: the first winter storm flooded tens of thousands of tents. A sandbank collapse on November 8 killed a woman and four children.
  • Climate: Copernicus reported October 2026 as the warmest October on record worldwide.
  • Week ahead: a possible nor’easter for the US East late in the week, and very heavy rain forecast for central Vietnam on November 9–11.

National weather services and civil protection agencies issue the official warnings for their areas. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Tropical cyclones

Five systems were active, but only Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu struck land. The Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific had no tropical cyclones.

Storm

Basin

Peak during the week

Landfall

Key impacts

Murasu

North Indian (Bay of Bengal)

Severe cyclonic storm; 100–110 km/h (62–68 mph) at landfall, gusts 120 km/h (75 mph)

Near Ongole, Andhra Pradesh, 03:30–05:30 IST Nov 3

8 deaths; crops, homes and roads damaged

In-fa

West Pacific

Typhoon; 65 kt (75 mph, 120 km/h), 970 hPa on Nov 4

None

Moisture fed heavy rain in southern Kanto and the Izu Islands, Nov 4–5; extratropical Nov 6

Cempaka (Samuel)

West Pacific

Typhoon; 70 kt (81 mph, 130 km/h), 970 hPa at 18:00 Nov 8 (JMA)

None

Still active; may pass near the Ogasawara Islands Nov 10–11

Pena

Central Pacific

Tropical storm; 60 mph (95 km/h), 993 mb on Nov 8

None

Far south of Hawaii; no watches or warnings

03S (02-20262027)

South-West Indian

Tropical depression

None reported

Passed off northern Madagascar; dissipated Nov 8–9

Murasu (India). The storm crossed the south Andhra Pradesh coast early on November 3, according to India’s weather department as quoted by ETV Bharat. The Tribune put landfall at about 1 a.m. IST. A state review on November 5 counted 8 deaths: 5 in Bapatla, 2 in Guntur and 1 in Palnadu (The News Minute, November 6). Early reports on November 3 gave 2 deaths. Damage included 143,122 hectares of field crops, 983 houses, 346 boats and 964 km of roads. More than 12,000 people were moved to shelters (TBS News, November 3).

Cempaka and In-fa (West Pacific). Neither reached land. In-fa brought high-wave warnings to the Ogasawara Islands on November 3 before turning northeast. Cempaka formed near the Mariana Islands on November 7. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated it 75 kt (86 mph, 139 km/h) at 00:00 on November 9 and expects it to turn out to sea.

Floods, heavy rain and landslides

Flash floods killed people on three continents, with the heaviest rain on Florida’s Space Coast and the worst humanitarian toll in Gaza.

Dates

Place

What happened

Reported toll (source, date)

Nov 1–2

Southern Brevard County, Florida, US

Up to 24.10 in (612 mm) at Malabar; flash flood emergency

2 dead in Palm Bay (Weather.com, Nov 4)

Nov 4–5

North Georgia and Polk County, Tennessee, US

8–10 in (203–254 mm) in about 12 hours; record river crests

1 dead in Murray County, GA; about 148–170 rescues (Fox Weather, Nov 7)

Nov 6–8

Gaza Strip

First winter storm floods camps of displaced people

5 dead in a sandbank collapse, 2 missing (Al Jazeera, Nov 9)

Nov 7

Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

About 80 mm (3.1 in) of rain, against about 30 mm forecast

2 dead (Rudaw, Nov 8)

Nov 3–5

Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, Brazil

Storms across more than 230 municipalities

4 deaths under investigation (Agência Brasil, Nov 5)

Nov 6–7

Sharon region, Israel

117 mm (4.6 in) in 75 minutes at Kadima

No casualties reported (Times of Israel, Nov 7)

Oct 31–Nov 2

Lumajang, East Java, Indonesia

Lahar flood and landslides

2 dead (BNPB via Liputan6, Nov 4)

Florida. Melbourne logged 11.51 in (292 mm) on November 2, its wettest day since records began in 1937 (Weather.com). Brevard deputies helped more than 100 people, and state wildlife officers made more than 60 rescues. The governor declared an emergency in 7 counties on November 2. AccuWeather put preliminary damage and economic loss at $3–5 billion on November 4, as cited by Wikipedia.

Gaza. The Government Media Office said about 70,000 tents flooded and over 1,500 emergency calls came in (Al Jazeera, November 8). The Gaza Health Ministry’s director general said about 350,000 displaced people were left sleeping in the open (Gulf News, November 9).

Southeastern US and Iraq. In Georgia, the governor declared an emergency for 4 counties. In Erbil, the dead were a 5-year-old boy and a volunteer bulldozer operator. Gulf News reported preliminary damage of more than $8 million.

Heat, cold, drought and wildfire

Unseasonable warmth set records in the northeastern US, Canada and northern Australia; no record cold or snow was verified.

Date

Place

Reading

Previous record (source)

Nov 4

Buffalo, New York

79°F (26°C)

74°F (23°C), 2022, daily record (WGRZ)

Nov 4

Massena, New York

77°F (25°C)

71°F (22°C), 2022, daily record (WWNY)

Nov 4

Watertown, New York

76°F (24°C)

73°F (23°C), 2022, daily record (WWNY)

Nov 4

Ottawa and Montreal, Canada

Record highs for the date

Values not given (CTV)

Reported Nov 9

Weipa, Queensland, Australia

39.8°C (103.6°F)

Hottest November day on record (ABC, citing the Bureau of Meteorology)

Drought. The US Drought Monitor map valid November 3 (released November 5) showed 36.8% of the US and Puerto Rico in drought, and 43.4% of the lower 48 states. Rain eased drought in the Southwest, the Great Basin, Texas and Florida. Drought expanded in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, the Mid-Atlantic and New England, with extreme drought added in Maine’s North Woods.

Wildfire. The US national fire situation report for November 8 put the country at Preparedness Level 1. Year-to-date, 68,257 fires have burned 9,471,384 acres (3.83 million hectares), 146% of the 10-year average area. The largest uncontained fire was Bee Haven 2 in Florida, at 2,060 acres (834 hectares) and 85% contained. Satellite data on GDACS showed about 25 burned areas in Australia on November 6–9, the largest 52,008 hectares (128,500 acres).

Earthquakes and volcanoes

It was a quiet week for earthquakes: USGS recorded two magnitude 6.1 events, and neither caused reported damage.

Time (UTC)

Magnitude

Location

Depth

USGS PAGER alert

Nov 6, 10:39

6.1

144 km (89 mi) SE of Hasaki, Japan

29 km (18 mi)

Green

Nov 5, 17:21

6.1

Fiji region

535 km (332 mi)

Green

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued no tsunami advisory or warning for the November 6 offshore Kanto quake (Open Magazine, November 6). Just after the review week, a magnitude 6.4 quake struck near Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, at 03:34 on November 9, with a green PAGER alert.

The latest Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report available covers October 22–28. Its most significant entries, plus two eruptions reported since, are below.

Volcano

Activity

Status

Kilauea, Hawaii, US

Episode 56 lava fountains reached about 200 m (660 ft) on Nov 5; plume to about 5,500 m (18,000 ft)

Watch; aviation code Orange (HVO, via The Watchers, Nov 6)

Mayon, Philippines

Explosive eruption Oct 30; plume about 3,000 m (9,800 ft) above the crater

Alert Level 3; 6 km (3.7 mi) danger zone evacuation advised (PHIVOLCS, via The Watchers)

Chikurachki, Russia

Explosive eruption from Oct 26; ash to 5.6 km (18,400 ft)

Aviation code back to Yellow on Oct 28

Nevados de Chillán, Chile

Plumes up to 2.4 km (7,900 ft) above the crater rim on Oct 28

Stay 2 km (1.2 mi) from the active vent

Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand

Short-lived plumes to 1–1.5 km (3,300–4,900 ft)

Alert Level 3; aviation code Orange

Climate signals

A strong El Niño is still building. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its October 8 discussion, kept an El Niño Advisory and said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027. It gave an 83% chance that October–December will exceed the threshold for a historic event. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported a record weekly relative Niño3.4 index of +2.88°C (+5.2°F) for the week ending October 25, with models expecting a peak around November–December. CPC says El Niño-like impacts are more likely, though not guaranteed. Its next update is due November 12.

Copernicus published its October figures on November 5:

Measure, October 2026

Value

Global surface air temperature vs 1850–1900

+1.75°C (+3.15°F), warmest October on record

Global surface air temperature vs 1991–2020

+0.90°C (+1.62°F)

Niño 3.4 sea surface anomaly

+3.21°C (+5.78°F), an all-time high

Arctic sea ice extent

7.1 million km² (2.7 million sq mi), 8.5% below average

Antarctic sea ice extent

16.8 million km² (6.5 million sq mi), second-lowest October

Copernicus gives 2026 a better than 99% chance of ending more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.

Week ahead

The main risks this week are a possible nor’easter in the eastern US, extreme rain in central Vietnam and persistent heat in northern Queensland.

Region

What to watch

When

Issued by

Central Vietnam (Hue, Da Nang, eastern Quang Ngai)

250–450 mm (10–18 in) of rain, locally over 700 mm (28 in); 8 provinces told to prepare

Nov 9–11

Vietnamese government order, Nov 7

Eastern US

Low may become a nor’easter offshore; cold rain east of the Appalachians, early snow in the interior Northeast highlands; highs 5–15°F (3–8°C) below normal

Thu Nov 12 – Sat Nov 14

NOAA Weather Prediction Center, Nov 8

Pacific Northwest to northern California

Several rounds of rain, possible atmospheric rivers; mountain snow in northern California at the weekend

Wed Nov 11 – Sun Nov 15

NOAA Weather Prediction Center, Nov 8

Queensland, Australia

Extreme heatwave warning for Cape York; highs high 30s to low 40s °C (about 99–108°F); severe storms possible in the southeast

All week; storms Wed Nov 11 – Thu Nov 12

Bureau of Meteorology, via ABC, Nov 9

Liguria and Tuscany, Italy; western Spain

Orange heavy-rain warnings

Mon Nov 9 – Tue Nov 10

National weather services via Meteoalarm, Nov 9

The Weather Prediction Center says the East Coast low’s track and impacts remain uncertain, with one model weaker than the others. In the tropics, Typhoon Cempaka may pass near the southern Ogasawara Islands around November 10–11. India’s weather department sees a possible low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal around November 13.

About this analysis

This weekly analysis summarizes significant weather and natural hazards worldwide, drawn from national weather services, international agencies and news reports. Each figure is attributed to its source and the date it was reported, and tolls often change as assessments continue. Temperatures are in Fahrenheit with Celsius in brackets, rainfall in inches with millimeters, and winds in mph with km/h; climate anomalies are in Celsius first, as agencies publish them. It is not a forecast or warning service.

Glossary

  • Atmospheric river: a long, narrow band of moisture in the atmosphere that can bring heavy rain or snow.
  • Nor’easter: a coastal storm along the US East Coast with winds blowing from the northeast.
  • Flash flood emergency: the US National Weather Service’s most serious flash flood alert, used when lives are in severe danger.
  • PAGER alert: the USGS rating (green to red) of likely deaths and losses from an earthquake.
  • El Niño: a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns worldwide.

Frequently asked questions

Which storm did the most damage this week? Cyclone Murasu, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast in India on November 3. State officials reported 8 deaths and widespread crop damage. No other tropical cyclone made landfall during the week.

Was there any hurricane threat to the US? No. The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico had no tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center expects none to form through mid-November. Tropical Storm Pena stayed far south of Hawaii.

How bad was the Florida flooding? Rain fell for about 38 hours over southern Brevard County on November 1–2, and Melbourne had its wettest day on record. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood emergency for the area.

Is El Niño still strengthening? Yes. NOAA and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology both describe a strengthening El Niño, likely to stay strong into early 2027. NOAA’s next update is due November 12.

Will the eastern US get snow this week? Possibly in the higher terrain of the interior Northeast and Pennsylvania from Thursday, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Most areas east of the Appalachians are more likely to see cold rain, and the storm’s track is still uncertain.

Sources

Tropical cyclones

Floods and heavy rain

Heat, drought and wildfire

Earthquakes and volcanoes

Climate

Week ahead

Sources & Methodology
Weekly Global Weather Watch is compiled by Orbis Weather using information from official national and international meteorological agencies, including NOAA, the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization and relevant national weather agencies worldwide.

Orbis Weather reviews these official observations, forecasts, warnings and outlooks to identify the most significant global weather patterns and hazards for the week ahead. Forecast conditions can change as new observations and model guidance become available.

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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