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🇺🇸 U.S. Weather Outlook: What to Expect This Week

By Paul Harrison | Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

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Saturday, November 7, 2026

U.S. Weather Outlook (Next 7 Days): November 7–13, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

This outlook covers Saturday, November 7, through Friday, November 13, 2026. It was written at about 7:30 a.m. EST on Saturday, November 7, from forecasts issued overnight and on Friday.

At a glance

Most of the country stays dry and quiet this week under a large high, while storms focus on the Pacific Northwest and South Texas.

  • South Texas: Gulf moisture brings heavy rain Sunday into Monday, with a WPC Slight Risk of excessive rainfall.
  • Pacific Northwest: A strong cold front Saturday night brings wind and rain, followed by repeated Pacific moisture plumes all week.
  • Southern California: Offshore winds and fire danger peak Saturday, then a warm, dry spell runs into midweek with high tides at the coast.
  • Northeast and Great Lakes: Cold rain and some high-elevation wet snow end by Sunday, then a cooler, showery pattern returns late week.
  • Severe storms: The Storm Prediction Center forecasts no severe thunderstorms Saturday or Sunday.

Local National Weather Service offices issue the official watches and warnings for each area.

The big picture

A large high over the middle of the country keeps fair weather for most areas through Monday. An upper low over the Great Lakes pulls Canadian air into the East, which runs cooler than normal from the Northeast to the Deep South. From Tuesday on, the Weather Prediction Center expects “an active Pacific storm track” with deep troughing in the northeast Pacific. That sends repeated atmospheric-river moisture plumes into the Pacific Northwest and California. A separate southern-stream trough brings showers and storms from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast and Southeast through midweek.

Day by day

The weekend is quiet in the middle of the country; the West turns busier from Tuesday.

Day

East

Central states

West

Sat, Nov 7

Cold rain from the lower Great Lakes to New England; gusty northwest winds in the Mid-Atlantic

Morning frost and freeze in Kansas and Missouri; rain from southern New Mexico into West Texas early

Wind and Red Flag warnings near Los Angeles; strong cold front in western Washington at night

Sun, Nov 8

Wet snow may mix in on New England high ground in the morning; Maine clears at night

Heavy rain and non-severe storms in South Texas

Hot inland in Southern California; showers and lower snow levels in the Northwest

Mon, Nov 9

Clipper rain for the lower Great Lakes and upstate New York early; dry cold front in the Mid-Atlantic

Texas rain trends down; mild and dry in the Midwest

Next warm front reaches the Northwest late

Tue, Nov 10

Brief warm-up in the Mid-Atlantic

Showers and storms from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast

Moisture plume over western Washington; warm in Southern California

Wed, Nov 11

Southern showers spread into the Southeast

Mild and dry in the central Plains

Lower-confidence day in the Northwest; Southern California still above normal

Thu, Nov 12

Showers return to the Mid-Atlantic as low pressure moves up the coast

Cooler air arrives in the Plains and Midwest

More widespread Northwest rain; onshore flow cools Southern California

Fri, Nov 13

Showers in the Mid-Atlantic; colder interiors may see mixed precipitation

Possible lake-effect precipitation near the Great Lakes

New moisture surge toward California and the Intermountain West; Southwest showers and storms

Region by region

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Drier, cooler air arrives this weekend after Friday’s front. New York City has lows in the 40s to around 50 Saturday and Sunday nights and highs near 60 Sunday. The Baltimore–Washington office expects northwest gusts of 20 to 30 mph, seasonable weekend temperatures and showers again Thursday and Friday.

Southeast. The region runs cooler than normal this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms from the southern stream spread toward the Gulf Coast and Southeast through midweek.

Midwest and Great Lakes. A dry warming trend runs into early next week. Chicago may see near- or slightly-below-freezing lows Sunday and Monday mornings, then highs in the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday. Kansas City expects cooler air from Thursday, with any rain staying to the east.

Plains. The northern High Plains stay dry and much milder than normal, with gusty west-southwest winds. In Texas, rain from southern New Mexico moves into West Texas Saturday, then heavier rain falls over South Texas Sunday into Monday (see Hazards).

Rockies and Great Basin. The weekend is dry under the high. Late in the week a new moisture surge reaches the Intermountain West, with mountain snow possible as each cold front passes.

Southwest and California. Los Angeles coasts and valleys reach the mid 80s to around 90 this weekend, with highs in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Onshore flow brings highs in the 70s by Friday. Showers and storms are possible over the Southwest and Four Corners late in the week.

Pacific Northwest. Western Washington peaks in the 60s Saturday before a cold front brings rain Saturday night and highs in the 50s Sunday. Another warm front arrives late Monday, with a steady moisture plume Tuesday and wider rain from Thursday. Seattle’s office says river flooding is not expected through the next seven days.

Alaska. The Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures over the eastern mainland and Southeast Alaska for November 12 to 16.

Hawaii. A tropical disturbance southeast of the Big Island is forecast to pass well south of the islands (see Tropics).

Hazards this week

South Texas rain and Pacific Northwest wind are the main hazards; no severe thunderstorms are forecast this weekend.

Hazard

Where

When

What the forecasters say

Flooding rain

South-central and South Texas

Sun 6 a.m. CST to Mon 6 a.m. CST

WPC Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). Areal averages of 2 to 3 inches, local totals of 4 to 8 inches. WPC says the area “will likely need adjustment.” A Marginal Risk covers South, south-central and West Texas Saturday.

Severe storms

Texas, New England

Sat and Sun

SPC: no severe thunderstorm areas forecast either day. Scattered to numerous non-severe storms are possible in southern, central and southwest Texas Sunday.

High wind

Western Washington

Sat afternoon into early Sun (PST)

High Wind Watch; 50 to 75% chance of gusts over 58 mph in the watch area. Gusts of 30 to 45 mph elsewhere. A Storm Warning covers coastal waters 10 a.m. Sat to 10 a.m. Sun PST.

Wind and fire weather

Los Angeles and Ventura counties

Sat (PST)

Wind Advisory 2 a.m. to 2 p.m.; Red Flag Warning 2 a.m. to 6 p.m. No further wind or fire products expected after Saturday.

Coastal flooding and surf

Southern California; Washington coast

Through Tue (SoCal); Sun (WA)

Coastal Flood Advisories for Orange and San Diego county coasts until noon Tuesday and for parts of the Los Angeles office’s coast until 10 p.m. Monday (PST). High tides of 7.2 to 7.6 feet peak Sunday and Monday. Washington seas build to 20 to 28 feet Sunday, with a High Surf Advisory 4 a.m. to 10 p.m. PST.

Mountain snow

Washington Cascades

Sat night to Sun

Snow levels fall from above 7,000 feet to 4,000 to 5,000 feet by Sunday morning. Washington Pass has about a 50% chance of 4 inches or more; WPC expects minor impacts.

Frost and freeze

Kansas and Missouri; Chicago area; Mid-Atlantic

Sat morning; Sun–Mon mornings; late nights

Kansas City’s Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning ran until 8 a.m. CST Saturday, with another frosty night in Missouri Saturday night. Frost or near-freezing readings are possible in the Baltimore–Washington area.

Nationally, fire activity is light. The National Interagency Fire Center reported Preparedness Level 1 on November 6, with 57 new fires covering 347 acres the previous day.

Tropics

No tropical cyclone threatens the United States. In the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center gives a non-tropical low south-southeast of Bermuda a 10% chance of formation over seven days (outlook issued 1 a.m. EST Saturday). In the Pacific, a disturbance several hundred miles southeast of the Big Island has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. It is forecast to move west-northwest to west at 10 to 15 mph, “passing well south of the Hawaiian Islands” (outlook issued 10 a.m. PST Friday). Each new outlook replaces these figures.

Beyond the week

The Climate Prediction Center expects a warm middle of the country and a wet West Coast into mid-November. Its outlooks were issued at 3 p.m. EST Friday, November 6.

Outlook

Valid

Confidence

Temperature

Precipitation

6 to 10 day

Nov 12–16

Above average, 4 out of 5

Above normal West and Central, with 80–90% chances in the northern Plains; near to below normal in the eastern third

Above normal along most of the West Coast (70–80% south of San Francisco Bay), southern Plains and Florida; below normal in the central and interior East

8 to 14 day

Nov 14–20

Near average, 3 out of 5

Above normal across most of the Lower 48; near normal on the East Coast and in northern and central California

Above normal from the West to the Mississippi River and along the Gulf Coast to Florida; below normal from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coastal plain

Hawaii is favored to be warmer than normal in both periods.

What could change

  • Where the Texas rain sets up (Sunday to Monday). WPC calls uncertainty high, with models split between the Gulf coast, farther inland and northeast Mexico.
  • Western moisture plumes (Tuesday to Saturday). WPC says “uncertainty remains concerning the timing, orientation and magnitude of individual moisture plumes.”
  • Pacific Northwest midweek (Wednesday). Seattle’s office says uncertainty increases as a ridge builds inland and a trough sits offshore.
  • Late-week cold (Thursday and Friday). Chicago’s office rates how cold the air gets as “an item of relatively low confidence.”
  • A Southern California storm (Friday onward). The Los Angeles office sees a possible system between November 13 and 17, ranging from minimal rain to a significant storm.

About this outlook

This outlook summarizes forecasts from the National Weather Service: the Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and local forecast offices. Day 1 is Saturday, November 7, and day 7 is Friday, November 13. Forecast detail drops after the first three days, and local conditions can differ from regional summaries.

Glossary

  • Atmospheric river: a long, narrow band of moisture that can bring heavy rain and mountain snow.
  • Excessive rainfall risk: WPC’s four-level scale (Marginal, Slight, Moderate, High) for the chance of rain heavy enough to cause flash flooding.
  • Clipper: a fast-moving low that drops southeast from Canada.
  • Offshore winds: winds blowing from land toward the sea, which dry and warm the coast.
  • Snow level: the elevation above which precipitation falls mainly as snow.

Frequently asked questions

Will there be severe storms this weekend? The Storm Prediction Center forecasts no severe thunderstorms anywhere in the country Saturday or Sunday. Texas could see non-severe storms Sunday.

Where is flooding most likely? South-central and South Texas, from Sunday morning into Monday morning. WPC rates the risk Slight, level 2 of 4, and says the area may shift.

How hot will Southern California get? Inland coastal areas and western valleys around San Diego reach the upper 80s to around 90 on Sunday, the warmest day. Forecasters expect cooling late in the week as onshore flow returns.

Is a hurricane headed for the United States? No. The only system with a high chance of forming is in the central Pacific and is forecast to pass well south of Hawaii.

Will it snow this week? Mainly in the mountains. The Washington Cascades may pick up a few inches Saturday night into Sunday, and higher New England terrain may see wet snow mixed with rain.

Sources

Weather Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

Climate Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center

Local forecast offices (Area Forecast Discussions)

Fire

Sources & Methodology
Weekly Global Weather Watch is compiled by Orbis Weather using information from official national and international meteorological agencies, including NOAA, the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization and relevant national weather agencies worldwide.

Orbis Weather reviews these official observations, forecasts, warnings and outlooks to identify the most significant global weather patterns and hazards for the week ahead. Forecast conditions can change as new observations and model guidance become available.

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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