Southeast Asia Weather & Natural Hazards Today: Saturday, November 7, 2026

Nov 7, 2026 · @Paul

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Heavy rain is the main hazard across Southeast Asia on Saturday, November 7. Thailand’s Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) expects heavy to very heavy rain in the South through November 9. Vietnam’s forecasters expect torrential rain over the central provinces from late November 8. Indonesia’s weather agency BMKG has its second-highest rain warning, “Siaga”, in force for three regencies of North Sulawesi. Mayon Volcano in the Philippines remains under heightened alert, and Indonesia’s Semeru erupted twice on Friday.

No tropical cyclone is forecast to reach Southeast Asian land in the next three days. A tropical depression east of the Mariana Islands is forecast to become a typhoon by November 10. JMA’s track keeps it over the open Pacific, though the Philippine weather agency PAGASA says it may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Sunday. This report is current to 07:00 Saturday in Bangkok, Hanoi and Jakarta (UTC+7), 08:00 Saturday in Manila, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur (UTC+8), and 19:00 Friday, November 6, US Eastern time.

Key facts

Tropical cyclones

One tropical depression is active in the western Pacific; none is active in the South China Sea, Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea.

JMA forecasts the depression to become a tropical storm on Saturday and a typhoon with sustained winds of 130 km/h (70 knots) by the evening of November 10, Japan time. Its forecast track takes it west-northwest to about 23.5°N 135.1°E, then turns it east. PAGASA says it may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (the zone where PAGASA issues bulletins) on Sunday, November 8, and could become a super typhoon. Weather specialist John Manalo said, in Filipino, that it would be named Samuel if it enters, according to The Manila Times.

Floods and heavy rain

No flood deaths or evacuations had been reported in the bulletins summarised here; both events below are forecasts.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) expects 100 to 200 mm of rain from southern Nghe An to northern Quang Tri from the night of November 8 to the night of November 9, with more than 300 mm in places, according to DTiNews. From November 9 to the night of November 11, Hue, Da Nang and eastern Quang Ngai could receive 250 to 450 mm, with more than 700 mm in some areas. Areas from Quang Ngai to Dak Lak could see 150 to 300 mm.

The centre has warned of floods on rivers from Quang Tri to Dak Lak from November 9 to 12. Rivers in Hue are forecast to reach or exceed flood alert level 2. The north turns cold from November 9, with lows below 13°C in some mountain areas.

Thailand

TMD’s advisory No. 11, issued at 17:00 Bangkok time on November 6, says a high-pressure system (a mass of cool air) from China is strengthening easterly winds over Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand. The South faces heavy rain from November 7 to 9, with flash floods and runoff possible. Very heavy rain is forecast on November 8 in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla and Narathiwat, and on November 9 in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani and Narathiwat.

The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) has placed all 14 southern provinces on flood watch from November 5 to 9. Waves in the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea may exceed 2 metres in thunderstorms, according to The Nation.

Country-by-country weather today

Earthquakes

The US Geological Survey (USGS) recorded three earthquakes of magnitude 4.4 or more in the region between 00:00 UTC on November 5 and 23:51 UTC on November 6, none above magnitude 5.

Tsunami status: USGS flagged none of these earthquakes as having tsunami potential.

Volcanoes

Mayon in the Philippines and Semeru and Bromo in Indonesia all erupted this week.

PHIVOLCS is the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. A “pyroclastic flow” is a fast avalanche of hot gas, ash and rock.

Haze, fires and air quality

No regional haze episode is under way. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre has downgraded the southern ASEAN region to Alert Level 1, reporting scattered hotspots (fire locations seen by satellite) in Kalimantan and few in Sumatra, and expects showers to reduce the risk of haze crossing borders. Singapore’s National Environment Agency said the transboundary haze risk is low; its Haze Task Force is standing down, and daily haze updates and N95 mask distribution end on November 7, according to AsiaOne.

What to watch over the next few days

• Western Pacific depression: whether it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility on November 8 and is named Samuel, and how close JMA’s track brings it to land.
• Central Vietnam, November 9 to 12: river levels in Hue, Da Nang and Quang Ngai, and any evacuation orders.
• Southern Thailand, November 8 and 9: flash floods in the eastern coastal provinces as rain peaks.
• Malaysia’s east coast and Sabah, November 8 to 11: MetMalaysia expects a monsoon surge (a burst of stronger northeast winds that brings prolonged rain) from November 9 to 11.
• Mayon: any PHIVOLCS move to Alert Level 4.

About this article

This article summarises official bulletins from national weather, disaster and geological agencies and news reports that cite them. It is not an official warning; readers should follow their national agency for decisions about safety. Wind speeds are converted from knots (1 knot = 1.852 km/h); storm figures are those each agency gave at the time shown, so PAGASA and JMA numbers differ slightly. Earthquake magnitudes are preliminary USGS figures and may be revised. Rainfall amounts are forecasts unless stated otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

Will the tropical depression hit the Philippines? JMA’s forecast track keeps the system over the open Pacific, east of 135°E, through November 11, turning it east after November 9. PAGASA says it may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, a large monitoring zone, on November 8; entering that zone does not by itself mean landfall.

When will the heaviest rain hit central Vietnam? NCHMF expects the heaviest rain from November 9 to the night of November 11, centred on Hue, Da Nang and eastern Quang Ngai. Readers in those areas should follow provincial flood bulletins.

What should travellers to southern Thailand know this weekend? Rain in the South is forecast to peak on November 8 and 9, and the DDPM flood watch runs through November 9. Travellers can follow TMD advisories and the DDPM hotline, 1784, for updates.

What does Alert Level 3 at Mayon mean for residents? PHIVOLCS raised Mayon to Alert Level 3 after a moderate eruption on October 30, and entry into the 6 km Permanent Danger Zone is prohibited. PHIVOLCS Director Teresito Bacolcol said the agency is watching indicators such as seismic energy to decide whether to raise it further.

Sources

• JMA tropical cyclone data, TC2638 specifications
• JMA tropical cyclone data, TC2637 (In-fa) specifications
• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory, western Pacific
• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory, Indian Ocean
• The Manila Times: Tropical depression may intensify into super typhoon — Pagasa (Nov 6, 2026)
• Journal News Online: Tropical depression sa labas ng PAR binabantayan ng PAGASA (Nov 6, 2026)
• Weathernews: Tropical Depression 99W forms east of the Marianas (Nov 6, 2026), background on the JMA forecast
• DTiNews: Central region braces for torrential rain from November 8 (Nov 7, 2026)
• The Nation: Hail forecast for upper Thailand with very heavy rain in southern areas (Nov 6, 2026)
• The Nation: Bangkok and 61 provinces on alert for storms and flash floods (Nov 3, 2026)
• Thairath English: Meteorological Department Issue 11 warns of unstable weather (Nov 6, 2026)
• Siakap Keli (Bernama): MetMalaysia continuous rain warning in 3 states until November 11 (Nov 6, 2026)
• MetMalaysia: Northeast Monsoon 2026/2027 media statement (Oct 23, 2026)
• AsiaOne: Heavy thundery showers expected across Singapore on Nov 6 afternoon
• AsiaOne: Thundery showers on most days in first half of November (Oct 29, 2026)
• Kontan: 26 provinces with heavy rain, BMKG early warning for 7/11 (Nov 6, 2026)
• CNN Indonesia: BMKG lists 28 areas likely to see rain (Nov 7, 2026)
• USGS earthquake catalogue query, Nov 5–6, 2026
• The Manila Times: PHIVOLCS warns of possible Mayon Alert Level 4 escalation (Nov 3, 2026)
• GMA News: PHIVOLCS warns of stronger eruption by Mayon Volcano (Nov 3, 2026)
• DZRH: Mayon Volcano emits ash anew, PHIVOLCS says (Nov 3, 2026)
• ANTARA: Gunung Semeru erupsi luncurkan awan panas guguran sejauh 5 km (Nov 6, 2026)
• IDX Channel: Gunung Bromo erupsi 5 November 2026
• ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre