Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Weather Update: Saturday, November 7, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather · Nov 7, 2026

Current to 6:46 a.m. EST (1:46 a.m. HST, 11:46 UTC) on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Storm data: Tropical Storm Pena Public Advisory 3, issued 11 p.m. HST Friday, November 6 (09:00 UTC November 7). Outlooks: Eastern North Pacific, 10 p.m. PST Friday; Central North Pacific, 8 p.m. HST Friday (both 06:00 UTC November 7).

At a glance

Tropical Storm Pena is strengthening slowly far south of Hawaii, and no storm in either basin threatens land.

• Pena had winds of 50 mph [85 km/h] about 570 miles [915 km] south-southeast of South Point, Hawaii, moving west. There are no coastal watches or warnings.
• No threat to land today. NHC lists “None” under hazards affecting land, so this report has no land-threat section.
• One disturbance offshore of Central America has a low, 30 percent chance of formation through seven days. It could still bring heavy rain to parts of Central America this weekend.
• Both basins are well above normal. The eastern Pacific has 20 named storms and the central Pacific at least seven, against an eastern Pacific full-season average of about 15.

The National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and national weather services, including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

One tropical cyclone is active: Tropical Storm Pena in the central Pacific. The eastern Pacific has none.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles [75 km] from Pena’s center. The advisory headline reads “Pena strengthens a little as it moves westward well south of the Hawaiian Islands.” Pena formed on Friday, November 6, several hundred miles southeast of the Big Island.

NHC’s advisory expects the westward motion to continue “over the next couple of days” and says “additional gradual strengthening is expected to occur during the next few days.” On Friday the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported forecasters expected “little change through early next week,” with track confidence lower after about Monday as models disagree. NWS Honolulu told the paper Pena is likely to pass too far south to bring rain to the islands, but “will likely boost tradewinds early next week.” The newest advisory replaces these figures.

Disturbances to watch

One disturbance is being tracked, and its chances are low. The central Pacific outlook says no other formation is expected during the next seven days.

NHC’s Friday morning outlook said the low had “a weak and elongated circulation” and that conditions would become “increasingly hostile” over the weekend. It added the system “could still bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend.” The Friday night outlook called conditions “marginally conducive for further development through Sunday.”

The Tropical Weather Discussion of 10:05 UTC Friday placed the monsoon trough from near 11°N 86°W to a 1008 mb low near 11°N 90°W, then to 7°N 112°W. It forecast fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Friday evening into early next week. Northwest swell sets were forecast to bring seas up to 12 feet [3.7 m] off Baja California into early next week.

Season so far

The 2026 season is running well above the 1991-2020 average in both basins.

On average, the eastern Pacific reaches its 15th named storm by November 5, its eighth hurricane by October 23 and its fourth major hurricane by October 22, per NHC climatology. That makes the full-season figures a fair comparison for this date. NHC’s central Pacific summary prints the 2026 counts with differences of +4, +4 and +3 from its normal. Hawaii News Now called Pena “the ninth tropical cyclone in the central Pacific” this season. The strongest eastern Pacific storm was Hurricane Polo in September, peaking at 155 kt [180 mph, 285 km/h], per NHC’s season table. The most recent before Pena was Hurricane Vance, October 21-29.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center discussion of October 8 keeps an El Niño Advisory in effect. It says “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027.” NHC climatology notes that moderate to strong El Niño years are linked with more central Pacific activity.

What to watch next

Pena’s strength and the Central America rain risk are the main items for the next few days.

• Pena’s next advisory: the next complete advisory is due at 5 a.m. HST Saturday, on the NHC website.
• Pena’s longer-range track: forecasters told the Star-Advertiser that confidence drops after about Monday, November 9. Later advisories will show whether it stays a tropical storm.
• Hawaii trade winds: NWS Honolulu expects Pena to boost trade winds early next week. Its forecasts and marine advisories are at weather.gov/hfo.
• Rain in Central America: the low offshore could bring heavy rain through the weekend. National weather services in the region issue local warnings; NHC’s outlook tracks the low.
• Gulf of Tehuantepec winds: gap winds are forecast into early next week, per the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion.

About this report

This report draws on National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center products, NWS Honolulu, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and Hawaii news outlets. NHC covers the eastern North Pacific east of 140°W; the central North Pacific runs from 140°W to the International Date Line. Times follow each product’s own zone (PST for eastern Pacific outlooks, HST for central Pacific products) with UTC alongside. Figures are a snapshot at the issue times stated above and are replaced by each new advisory.

Glossary

• Tropical storm: a tropical cyclone strong enough to be named, but below hurricane strength.
• Major hurricane: a hurricane of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale.
• Monsoon trough: a belt of low pressure in the tropics where showers and storms cluster and tropical cyclones often form.
• Gap winds (Tehuantepecer): strong northerly winds funneled through a low gap in Mexico’s mountains into the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• Formation chance: NHC’s estimated probability that a disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone within 48 hours or seven days.

Frequently asked questions

Will Tropical Storm Pena affect Hawaii? NHC lists no hazards affecting land and no watches or warnings. NWS Honolulu told the Star-Advertiser that Pena will likely pass too far south to bring rain, though it may boost trade winds early next week.

Could Pena become a hurricane? NHC expects gradual strengthening over the next few days. On Friday, forecasters told the Star-Advertiser that some models show near-hurricane strength while others show a tropical depression, so later advisories will settle it.

Is anything forming near Mexico or Central America? A broad low offshore of Central America has a low, 30 percent chance of formation through seven days. It could still bring heavy rain to parts of Central America through the weekend.

Why has the Pacific been so active this year? The AP reported that the Pacific has had an active season “due in part to El Niño.” NOAA reports a strengthening El Niño, and NHC climatology links stronger El Niño years with more central Pacific activity. The season ends November 30.

Sources

• NHC: Tropical Storm Pena Public Advisory 3, 11 p.m. HST Fri Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: Eastern Pacific 7-day outlook page, with outlook text of 10 p.m. PST and central Pacific text of 8 p.m. HST, Fri Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: Central Pacific 7-day outlook page, central Pacific text of 2 p.m. HST Fri Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 10 a.m. PST Fri Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 2 a.m. HST Fri Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion, 10:05 UTC Fri Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: 2026 eastern Pacific season summary, as of 21:00 UTC Nov 6, 2026
• NHC: 2026 central Pacific season summary, as of 09:00 UTC Nov 5, 2026
• NHC: Tropical cyclone climatology, 1991-2020 averages
• NOAA CPC: ENSO diagnostic discussion, Oct 8, 2026
• Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tropical Storm Pena forms southeast of Hawaii, poses no threat to land, Nov 6, 2026, updated 1:40 p.m. HST
• Hawaii News Now: Tropical Storm Pena strengthens slightly well to the south-southeast of Hawaii, Nov 6, 2026, 3:11 p.m. HST
• AP via ABC News: Tropical Storm Pena forms in the Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, Nov 6, 2026