Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: Tuesday, October 20, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather · Oct 20, 2026

Super Typhoon Champi is the week’s biggest tropical story. It brushed Guam on Saturday, regained super typhoon strength over the Philippine Sea, and now threatens northern Luzon, Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands later this week. The Philippines has named it Rosal and raised Signal No. 1 over parts of northern Luzon.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Trudy ran parallel to Mexico’s southwest coast for five days without making landfall and became a remnant low on Monday night. A new system, EP94, is likely to become a depression well off southern Mexico. In the Southern Hemisphere, Cyclone Wati crossed the southern Cook Islands and a new storm, 02S, formed near the Seychelles. The Atlantic had no tropical cyclones all week. This report reviews Tuesday, October 13, to Monday, October 19, 2026, and looks ahead to Tuesday, October 20, to Monday, October 26. It is current to 7:45 a.m. EDT (11:45 UTC) on Tuesday, October 20.

National weather services and local authorities issue the official warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active systems now

Two tropical cyclones are active: Super Typhoon Champi in the Western Pacific and Tropical Cyclone 02S in the southwest Indian Ocean. Two disturbances are also being watched.

Trudy in the Eastern Pacific became a remnant low at 8 p.m. MST on October 19, and NHC has ended advisories. No tropical cyclones are active in the Central Pacific or North Indian Ocean.

The week in review

Five tropical cyclones were active somewhere on Earth from October 13 to 19, and none made landfall. Champi’s close pass of Guam and Trudy’s run along Mexico’s coast caused the only notable impacts on land.

The Atlantic and the North Indian Ocean had no tropical cyclones all week.

The biggest stories

Super Typhoon Champi (Rosal) heads for the Luzon Strait region

Champi is forecast to strengthen further before turning north late in the week. JTWC’s 0900 UTC Warning 24 forecasts a peak of 155 kt (180 mph, 1-min) at 1800 UTC today. JMA’s 12:45 JST bulletin forecasts a “violent” typhoon at 935 hPa and 105 kt (10-min) by midnight JST. PAGASA’s 5 p.m. PHT bulletin placed Rosal 1,270 km (790 mi) east of Central Luzon, with 195 km/h (120 mph) winds and gusts to 240 km/h (150 mph), as reported by Philstar.

PAGASA expects the “closest approach to Extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday and Friday.” Signal No. 1 covers Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, northern Ilocos Norte, northern and eastern Cagayan, northeastern Isabela and northeastern Catanduanes. Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration may issue a sea warning late Wednesday or Thursday and a land warning Thursday night, with the strongest effects Friday and Saturday (Focus Taiwan, Oct 20). Forecasts split after Thursday. JMA’s coordinates take the center to 25.4N 122.1E, just off northern Taiwan, by 9 a.m. JST Saturday; JTWC’s take it farther east, to 26.5N 124.0E, between Taiwan and Okinawa. Earlier, Champi passed about 10 mi (16 km) south of Guam at 4:26 a.m. ChST on October 18. Officials reported minimal damage, about half of power feeders online that morning, and a federal emergency declaration for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands (Pacific Island Times and The Watchers, Oct 18).

Hurricane Trudy brushes southwest Mexico without landfall

Trudy stayed offshore but brought heavy rain, high surf and port closures to five Mexican states. NHC’s operational peak of 105 kt (120 mph) at 9 a.m. CST October 16 was cut to 75 kt six hours later after satellite wind data showed a weaker storm. A hurricane warning ran from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes (AP via Boston Globe, Oct 16). Meteored reported more than 120 mm (4.7 in) of rain on the Jalisco coast on October 18 and waves up to 7 m (23 ft).

Jalisco and Colima opened 24 shelters, and authorities closed ports including Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta, Lazaro Cardenas and Puerto Escondido (Milenio, Oct 19). Manzanillo had fallen trees and poles and a highway sinkhole. NHC’s final advisory, at 8 p.m. MST October 19, said Trudy “no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone.” Its remnant is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday.

Two disturbances off North America

EP94 is likely to become the Eastern Pacific’s next depression. NHC’s 11 p.m. PDT outlook said “a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so,” moving west to west-northwest well offshore. In the Atlantic, AL93 is a storm-force non-tropical low off North Carolina that could gain tropical features over the Gulf Stream. NHC’s 2 a.m. EDT outlook warns of “high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf” on parts of the East Coast regardless of development. NHC’s 1215 UTC discussion put the low at 1001 mb between the Outer Banks and Bermuda.

An early start in the Southern Hemisphere

Cyclone Wati, named by the Fiji Meteorological Service on October 17, is the first cyclone of the 2026-27 Southern Hemisphere season (Weatherzone, Oct 18). The South Pacific season officially starts November 1. Wati reached Category 2 and crossed the southern Cook Islands on October 18-19. Aitutaki was under a storm warning for winds up to 100 km/h (62 mph) and gusts to 140 km/h (87 mph), as reported on October 19. JTWC’s ABPW product at 2100 UTC October 19 said its final warning on Wati had been issued. Near the Seychelles, Tropical Cyclone 02S formed on October 20. JTWC forecasts a peak of 50 kt (58 mph, 1-min) by Thursday and dissipation over open water within four days.

Quiet basins: The Atlantic has had no tropical cyclone since Isaias dissipated on October 10, per NHC’s season list. CPHC says formation in the Central Pacific “is not expected during the next 7 days.” JTWC listed no North Indian Ocean disturbances in its product reissued at 2000 UTC October 19.

Season to date

The Eastern and Western Pacific have already passed a full average season, while the Atlantic is well behind.

The Atlantic is also below the 1991-2020 pace for this date: NHC’s average dates put the 12th named storm on October 11 and the 6th hurricane on October 15. Including the Central Pacific’s Lala and Moke, the Pacific east of 180 degrees has 22 named storms, per NHC’s season lists. JMA’s 30th named storm, Champi, made 2026 the first season to reach 30 since 2013 (Weathernews, Oct 15); a current JMA typhoon count was not available. The North Indian Ocean has produced depressions but no cyclonic storm this year.

ENSO: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center keeps an El Nino Advisory in force. Its October 8 discussion says “El Nino continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Nino likely through January-March 2027.” The next discussion is due November 12.

What to watch this week

Champi’s turn north near Luzon and Taiwan is the main event of the coming week.

About this report

This roundup draws on the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Philippines’ PAGASA, the Fiji Meteorological Service and news reports. NHC and JTWC average sustained winds over 1 minute, while JMA and most other regional centers use 10 minutes, so their figures for the same storm differ; JTWC’s are usually higher. Times are given in the issuing agency’s zone. Advisories change every few hours, so check the latest official products before acting.

• Saffir-Simpson category: NHC’s 1-to-5 hurricane wind scale; Category 3 and above is a major hurricane.
• Super typhoon: JTWC’s term for its strongest typhoons, based on 1-minute winds.
• Violent typhoon: JMA’s top typhoon class, above “very strong”, based on 10-minute winds.
• Invest: a disturbance that forecasters have tagged for closer study, such as EP94 or AL93.
• Signal No. 1: the lowest level of PAGASA’s tropical cyclone wind signals.

Frequently asked questions

Will Champi make landfall in the Philippines? PAGASA’s 5 p.m. PHT bulletin forecasts a closest approach to Extreme Northern Luzon between Thursday and Friday and does not forecast landfall. A day earlier, GMA reported that a landfall in Extreme Northern Luzon or the Cagayan Valley was “not ruled out.” Residents of the Signal No. 1 areas should follow PAGASA and local officials.

Will Taiwan or Okinawa be hit? Taiwan’s weather agency expects the storm to turn north on Thursday but still forecasts heavy rain and its strongest effects on Friday and Saturday. JMA’s forecast places the typhoon south of Okinawa on October 22. Beyond Thursday, JMA and JTWC tracks differ, so the threat to each island is still uncertain.

Is the Atlantic season over? No. NHC is watching AL93 off the East Coast. On average, the 13th named storm forms by October 25 and the third major hurricane by October 28, per NHC’s 1991-2020 climatology.

Why did a cyclone form in the South Pacific in October? Wati formed ahead of the official November 1 start. Weatherzone linked the early start to El Nino, which NOAA expects to stay strong to very strong through early 2027.

Why do agencies give different wind speeds for Champi? JTWC measures 1-minute sustained winds, while JMA uses a 10-minute average. A 1-minute figure is usually higher, which is why JTWC’s numbers for the same storm run well above JMA’s.