Weekly Global Weather Watch: Weekly Analysis, October 19, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather · Oct 19, 2026

Review week: Monday, October 12 to Sunday, October 18, 2026. Outlook: Monday, October 19 to Sunday, October 25, 2026.

The week at a glance

Super Typhoon Champi passed just south of Guam and knocked out about half the island’s power, while deadly floods struck Istanbul, Rhodes, Tripoli and Mexico’s Pacific coast. Champi remains a powerful typhoon and is the main hazard of the week ahead, with agencies tracking it toward the waters south of Okinawa and near Taiwan.

• Typhoon Champi, Guam (October 17 to 18): closest approach about 10 miles (16 km) south of Merizo. Power fell to about 50% of the island; three people were treated and discharged, with no deaths reported (The Watchers, October 18).
• Mexico’s Pacific coast (October 11 to 14): Hurricane Simon and the remnants of Rachel were linked to six deaths and five missing (AP, October 13 and 14). Hurricane Trudy peaked at 120 mph [195 km/h] on October 16 and passed offshore without casualties in Colima.
• Istanbul, Türkiye (October 13 to 15): at least three dead and three missing, with 2,727 people evacuated (The Watchers, October 15). Al Jazeera reported one death the same day.
• Thailand: the flood toll since September 16 reached 71 (Interior Ministry via Reuters, October 12) and 76 (disaster agency via Bangkok Post, October 15).
• Rhodes, Greece (October 14): 10.4 inches [264 mm] of rain fell by early afternoon; one man died.
• Tripoli, Libya (October 13): 6.0 inches [152.5 mm] of rain; at least two dead.
• Central US and South Korea: October heat records fell in St. Louis, Chicago, Seoul and Daejeon.
• Week ahead: Champi near Taiwan and the Ryukyus late in the week, a nor’easter on the US Mid-Atlantic coast, and red rain warnings for northern Italy on Tuesday, October 20.

National weather services and civil protection agencies issue the official warnings for their areas. If an evacuation order is given, follow it immediately.

Tropical cyclones

Five tropical cyclones were active during the week, and none made landfall. Champi caused the most damage, on Guam, while Simon and Trudy brought rain and surf to western Mexico. The Atlantic had no active storm; Isaias, which hit Florida on October 9, ended before the week began.

Champi and Guam

Champi made its closest approach about 10 miles (16 km) south of Merizo at 04:26 Chamorro Standard Time on October 18 (18:26 UTC October 17), according to The Watchers. The National Weather Service issued an Extreme Wind Warning for far southern Guam, Fox Weather reported.

Power fell to about 50% of the island by 07:50 local time. Three people were treated at Guam Memorial Hospital and discharged, and no deaths were reported. The Ugum water treatment plant shut down, and a presidential emergency declaration was issued (The Watchers, October 18).

Recovery was under way on Monday. The Guam Joint Information Center said 70% of power feeders were energized at 11:00 local time on October 19, with a flood advisory in effect and schools closed (Guam Homeland Security). Stars and Stripes called it the “fourth such super typhoon” to affect the Marianas this year.

Simon, Trudy and western Mexico

Simon stayed offshore but kept Mexico’s Pacific coast under hurricane warnings early in the week. At 03:00 UTC on October 12 it was a Category 3 with 120 mph [195 km/h] winds, 45 miles (72 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes (NHC advisory 19). CBS News/AP reported on October 13 that deaths linked to Simon and the remnants of Rachel had risen to six. Puerto Vallarta’s airport suspended operations. Simon dissipated on October 16.

Trudy formed on October 13 and peaked at 120 mph [195 km/h] on October 16 (NHC advisory 12). Hurricane Hunters then found it much weaker, but it regained 105 mph [165 km/h] on October 18. Its closest point to Jalisco was about 105 miles (170 km) west-southwest of Playa Pérula (El Informador). Colima civil protection reported no casualties, and 48 people used shelters (Punto MX, October 18). At 09:00 UTC on October 19, Trudy was a 60 mph [95 km/h] tropical storm with no coastal warnings (NHC).

Wati and the Cook Islands

Wati formed on October 17 and passed near Aitutaki on October 18, local time. Winds of 48 to 70 mph [78 to 113 km/h] were measured on Aitutaki that morning, with minor damage and a few homes without power (RNZ via PINA, October 19). Seven residents left stilt homes, and a harbour project was set back by months (PMN, October 19).

Floods, heavy rain and landslides

The deadliest flash floods of the week struck Istanbul, Rhodes, Tripoli and eastern Spain. Thailand’s long-running floods and the remnants of Mexico’s Pacific storms added to the toll. Tolls below are as reported on the date shown and may change.

Istanbul

Istanbul had the week’s highest reported flood toll in Europe. The Watchers reported at least three dead and three missing as of 11:07 UTC on October 15. Interior Minister Çiftçi said 2,727 people had been evacuated (The Watchers). Al Jazeerareported one death the same day, a 14-year-old electrocuted in Balat, and more than 800 homes affected. Rainfall figures also differ: the governor gave 10.3 inches [261 mm] at Beykoz, the minister 10.7 inches [272 mm], and Al Jazeera “nearly 194mm” (7.6 inches) at Ömerli.

Rhodes and Tripoli

A National Observatory of Athens station on Rhodes logged 8.0 inches [202 mm] in about six and a half hours on October 14. A 62-year-old man died when his car was swept toward the sea at Stegna, and the mayor requested a state of emergency (The Watchers).

In Tripoli, the National Center of Meteorology recorded 6.0 inches [152.5 mm] at Souq al-Jumaa on October 13. Two deaths were confirmed: one by electrocution and one by drowning. Reports of three or four deaths had not been confirmed by any local authority (The Watchers).

Spain

A cut-off low, named DANA “Adam”, brought AEMET’s red warning to the southern Valencia coast and northern Alicante from October 18 to the morning of October 19 (Infobae). By Sunday morning, El Real de Gandia had 6.4 inches [162.6 mm] (Valencia Extra). Near Barcelona, a woman who fell into a stream on Saturday was found dead in the sea, the Catalan fire service said (AFP via Asharq Al-Awsat, October 18).

Mexico, the US Plains and the Outer Banks

In Baja California, at least five people died in Ensenada and five were missing after flooding from Rachel’s remnants. The army rescued 32 people (AP via Fire Engineering, October 14).

In Oklahoma, radar estimated 4 to 11 inches [102 to 279 mm] in four counties west of Oklahoma City. The Norman weather balloon measured 2.23 inches [56.6 mm] of precipitable water, “the highest October value in its period of record” (The Watchers). WPC raised a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for West Texas on October 15 (The Watchers).

On North Carolina’s Outer Banks, Dare County ordered visitors off Hatteras Island from the evening of October 16. Forecasts called for 2 to 4 feet [0.6 to 1.2 m] of inundation and surf of 8 to 14 feet [2.4 to 4.3 m] (The Watchers).

Thailand, the Americas and Africa

Thailand’s flood toll since September 16 rose to 71, with 908,000 households affected in 51 provinces (Reuters via The Star, October 12). The disaster agency’s figure was 76 dead and about 2.43 million people affected (UA.News citing Bangkok Post, October 15).

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reported 4 to 12 inches [100 to 300 mm] of rain over parts of Central America and northern South America in the past week, with flooding and damage (CPC Global Weather Hazards, October 15 to 21). It also noted recent flooding in southern Ethiopia and Somalia. In Somalia, the disaster agency put 29 districts on high alert, and the UN projects up to 3.4 million people could be affected through December (FTL Somalia, October 13).

Heat, cold, drought and wildfire

Late-season heat set October records in the central United States and South Korea early in the week. Drought covered more than half of the Lower 48 states, while the US fire season stayed at its lowest preparedness level.

Temperature records

Korea Times reported October records in Cheongju, Gumi, Andong, Wonju and Chuncheon as well. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center noted maximum temperatures up to 8°C [14°F] above average in western Kazakhstan. In South Africa, the weather service warned of a heatwave in Mpumalanga lasting until Monday, October 19, and of extremely high fire danger in parts of seven provinces (TimesLIVE, October 16). No national cold or snow records were found for the week.

Drought

The US Drought Monitor valid October 13 put 45.05% of the United States and Puerto Rico, and 53.73% of the Lower 48 states, in drought. About 97.0 million people were affected (drought.gov). The authors said “unusually warm and dry weather continued to worsen drought across portions of the Midwest and South.” Exceptional drought (D4) was introduced in southwestern Missouri and expanded in Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Rain from Hurricane Isaias improved the Southeast and removed D4 from western North Carolina (US Drought Monitor).

Wildfire

The US National Preparedness Level was 1, the lowest, on October 18. The year had 64,919 fires and 9,037,447 acres [3.66 million ha] burned, 132% and 143% of the 10-year averages (NIFC situation report, October 18, 07:30 MDT).

The first Santa Ana wind event of the season brought gusts of 60 to 80 mph [97 to 129 km/h] to Southern California on October 15. Several fires prompted evacuations (The Watchers, October 16). The Henderson Fire at Camp Pendleton closed Interstate 5 and reached 3,160 acres [1,279 ha], 50% contained, by October 18 (NIFC). No structures were reported destroyed.

In Indonesia, four people were killed and two badly burned fighting a fire in Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park, East Java, on October 15 (The Watchers). Bolivia’s civil defense agency put 2026’s burned area at about 1.25 million hectares [3.1 million acres], about 80% below the two-decade average (El Diario, October 13). In Canada, CIFFC’s latest situation report, dated September 29, showed preparedness level 1 and minimal activity.

Earthquakes and volcanoes

Five earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater struck during the week, all with a green PAGER alert, the lowest level. The only one near a populated area was a magnitude 6.1 aftershock in Panama. Philippine and Mexican volcanoes produced the highest ash plumes.

Earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above, October 12 to 18

Source: USGS earthquake catalog, queried October 19. Magnitudes are moment magnitudes (Mww).

Panama

The October 12 shock was an aftershock of a larger earthquake on October 9 in Los Santos province. As of October 13, 1,744 houses had been assessed, 6,174 people were affected and 598 were in 14 shelters. Damage was reported at 656 schools, and “No deaths or missing persons were reported” (PAHO, October 13). Panamanian outlets TVN and La Estrella de Panamá later reported one death, a woman struck by a collapsing wall in Macaracas (as compiled on Wikipedia, citing reports of October 14). The same compilation cites civil protection figures of 4,045 homes damaged and 879 destroyed (October 15).

Volcanoes

The Smithsonian and USGS weekly report covering October 8 to 14 listed four volcanoes with new activity and 23 with ongoing activity (Weekly Volcanic Activity Report).

The Kīlauea episode comes from a USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory notice of October 17. The October 18 Taal eruptions sent a plume 980 feet [300 m] above the crater (GMA News). No new major eruption was reported after the report period.

Climate signals

El Niño is still strengthening, and NOAA gives better-than-even odds that it becomes the strongest on record since 1950. September 2026 was the second-warmest September globally, with record sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions.

El Niño

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in its discussion of October 8. It said “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027,” with the chance “remaining greater than an 83%” (CPC ENSO discussion). Sea surface anomalies reached +2.1°C [+3.8°F] in the Niño-3.4 region and +3.9°C [+7.0°F] in Niño-1+2.

CPC defines a historic event as a three-month index of +2.5°C [+4.5°F] or more. It puts the chance at 54% for September to November, 83% for October to December and 70% for November to January. On impacts, CPC said “the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” and refers readers to its seasonal outlooks. The next discussion is due November 12.

The World Meteorological Organization reported a “near-100 per cent likelihood” that El Niño persists through February 2027 and said it could be “one of the strongest since at least 1950” (WMO, October 8).

Global temperature, September 2026

Copernicus also reported that western Europe had its joint-warmest September, tied with 2023.

Sea ice

The Antarctic winter maximum was the third-lowest on record. NASA, using NSIDC data, put it at 6.79 million square miles [17.59 million km²] on September 14 (NASA, October 12). NSIDC reported record-low daily Antarctic extents since October 2 (NSIDC, October 7). The Arctic minimum of 1.78 million square miles [4.6 million km²] on September 12 tied for tenth-lowest (NASA, September 23). Copernicus, using a different dataset, ranked the Arctic minimum 14th-lowest.

Week ahead

Typhoon Champi is the main hazard of the week, with JTWC forecasting further strengthening before it nears the waters south of Okinawa and east of Taiwan from Thursday. Northern Italy faces red rain and thunderstorm warnings on Tuesday, and a nor’easter will keep coastal flooding going on the US Mid-Atlantic coast.

Champi

At 00 UTC on October 19, Champi was at 14.0°N 139.2°E with winds of 155 mph [250 km/h] and a pressure of 926 mb, moving west (JTWC warning 19). JTWC forecasts it at 22.3°N 124.7°E by 00 UTC October 23. JMA forecasts 10-minute winds of 55 m/s, about 123 mph [198 km/h], from October 20 to 22. Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration said on October 16 that “its movement around next Thursday will need to be monitored closely” (Focus Taiwan). Neither JTWC nor JMA forecasts a landfall in the products checked.

On Guam, a flood advisory remained in effect on October 19, and marine conditions were described as life-threatening (Guam Homeland Security).

Europe

Italy’s red warnings cover rain in Liguria from 00 UTC Tuesday, and rain plus snow and ice in five northern regions from 12 to 22 UTC. The Met Office expects gales and heavy rain to be possible on Thursday and Friday, with “Changeable and at times unsettled” weather into early November (Met Office). Spain’s red warning for Valencia and Alicante expired at 08 UTC on October 19.

What could change the picture

Champi’s track after about midweek is the main uncertainty. JTWC reasoning, as relayed by zoom.earth, said “Forecast models diverge,” with some taking the storm north-northeast and others northwest toward southern Taiwan. WPC said the strength of a western Atlantic trough is “the most uncertain aspect” of the late-week US forecast. The Met Office rates its Friday wind warning low likelihood, 10 to 25%, with the location of the strongest winds uncertain. CPC said its 6-10 day confidence was “Very high, 5 out 5”.

About this analysis

This analysis summarizes significant weather and natural hazards worldwide for Monday, October 12 to Sunday, October 18, 2026, and the agencies’ outlook for Monday, October 19 to Sunday, October 25. It draws on national weather services, warning centers, disaster agencies, scientific bulletins and news reports, all linked below with their dates. Forecasts are the issuing agencies’ own, as published at the time stated.

Temperatures are in Fahrenheit with Celsius in brackets, rainfall in inches with millimeters, and winds in mph with km/h. Climate anomalies are given in Celsius first, as the agencies publish them. Times are UTC unless a local zone is named. Storm intensities are one-minute sustained winds from US centers unless JMA’s 10-minute winds are stated.

Limits: tolls change quickly and early figures often differ between agencies and media. Coverage is thinner for parts of Africa, South Asia and Oceania, where official updates are less frequent. The volcano report covers October 8 to 14 only, and the September global temperature figures are the latest available. Readers should rely on their national weather service for warnings.

Frequently asked questions

Did Typhoon Champi make landfall on Guam? No. Its center passed about 10 miles (16 km) south of Merizo early on October 18, local time. The island still lost about half its power, and three people were treated and discharged. No deaths were reported.

Where is Champi heading this week? JTWC and JMA both forecast a track toward the waters south of Okinawa and near Taiwan by October 22 to 24. JMA expects it to weaken to a severe tropical storm near Taiwan by October 24. Models diverge after midweek, so residents of Taiwan and the Ryukyus should follow their national agencies.

Did Hurricanes Simon or Trudy hit Mexico directly? Neither made landfall, according to NHC advisories. Simon and the remnants of Rachel were still linked to six deaths, mainly from flooding in Baja California (AP, October 13 and 14). Colima reported no casualties from Trudy.

What was the deadliest flood of the week? Outside Thailand’s long-running floods, Istanbul had the highest reported toll: at least three dead and three missing (The Watchers, October 15). Al Jazeera reported one death the same day. Thailand’s toll since September 16 reached 71 to 76, depending on the agency.

Why is northern Italy under red warnings? Meteoalarm shows red rain warnings for Liguria and five northern regions on Tuesday, October 20. Toscana and Lazio have red thunderstorm warnings. Residents should follow Italy’s civil protection guidance.

Is El Niño going to become a record event? NOAA puts the chance of an event stronger than any since 1950 at 83% for October to December. The WMO says it could be “one of the strongest since at least 1950.” The next NOAA update is due November 12.

Was September 2026 the warmest on record? No. Copernicus ranked it second-warmest, 0.11°C [0.20°F] cooler than September 2023. Sea surface temperatures between 60°S and 60°N set a September record.

Were there any damaging earthquakes this week? All five magnitude 6 and greater quakes had green PAGER alerts. The October 12 magnitude 6.1 aftershock in Panama followed a larger October 9 earthquake that damaged thousands of homes.