Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: Tuesday, October 27, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Super Typhoon Champi was the week’s deadliest storm. It brushed northeastern Taiwan on Friday, Oct. 23, leaving one dead and more than 500 injured, then forced tens of thousands of evacuations around Shanghai. Two storms now threaten land. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab is forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday morning. Typhoon In-fa is forecast to strengthen and reach the Mariana Islands area by Friday.

The review covers Tuesday, Oct. 20, through Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. The outlook covers Tuesday, Oct. 27, through Monday, Nov. 2. This report is current to 7:25 a.m. EDT (1125 UTC) on Tuesday, Oct. 27.

National weather services and local authorities issue the official warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active systems now

Three tropical cyclones are active, and two of them threaten land this week. No invests or other disturbances are listed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

The week in review

Eight systems were active in six basins between Oct. 20 and Oct. 26. Only Champi caused deaths or significant injuries; no storm made a confirmed landfall during the week.

The biggest stories

Champi: one dead and hundreds injured in Taiwan

Champi peaked over the Philippine Sea and then raked Taiwan without making landfall. At 11 a.m. PHT on Oct. 21, PAGASA put its winds at 215 km/h [134 mph] (10-min) and its pressure at 900 hPa, with Signal No. 2 over Batanes. Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration had it at 155 km/h [96 mph], 320 km [199 mi] ESE of Eluanbi, at 9 a.m. local time on Oct. 23. Al Jazeera, citing JTWC, gave 185 km/h [115 mph] (1-min) that day. Champi swept past northeastern Taiwan on Friday. One person died, more than 500 were injured and more than 5,000 were evacuated, Al Jazeera and AFP reported on Oct. 24. About 56,000 households lost power, and Yilan County recorded 650 mm [25.6 in] of rain from Thursday to Saturday.

The storm then turned north over the East China Sea. Shanghai evacuated 62,400 people, Bastille Post reported on Oct. 24, and more than 100 flights were grounded (South China Morning Post, Oct. 24). In Okinawa Prefecture, two people were injured (Al Jazeera/AFP, Oct. 24). JTWC issued its final warning at 2100 UTC Oct. 25, with Champi extratropical southwest of Kyushu. PAGASA reported no casualties in the Philippines (GMA News, Oct. 24).

Arnab: landfall expected in Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday

Arnab is the main landfall threat in the next 24 hours. IMD expects it to “cross Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam” close to Yanam during the “forenoon of 28 October”. IMD forecasts landfall winds of 115 to 125 km/h [71 to 78 mph] (3-min), gusting to 140 km/h [87 mph]. It warns of a storm surge of 1.0 to 1.5 m [3.3 to 4.9 ft] above the tide near Kakinada and Yanam (ETV Bharat and Pragativadi, Oct. 27).

Arnab became a cyclonic storm at 5:30 a.m. IST on Oct. 26 and a very severe cyclonic storm at 2:30 a.m. IST on Oct. 27 (KalingaTV, Oct. 27). JTWC’s 0300 UTC Oct. 27 warning forecasts a peak of 100 kt [115 mph] (1-min) before landfall and weakening inland. Red alerts cover 12 Andhra Pradesh districts and six districts of southern Odisha for Oct. 28. Odisha has begun evacuations, schools in six southern districts are closed Oct. 28 and 29, and 15 National Disaster Response Force teams are deployed (ETV Bharat and Pragativadi, Oct. 27). No deaths had been reported as of Oct. 27.

In-fa: a strengthening typhoon heading for the Marianas

In-fa is forecast to become a powerful typhoon before passing near the Mariana Islands. JTWC’s 0900 UTC Oct. 27 warning gives 105 kt [121 mph] (1-min). It forecasts a peak of 125 kt [144 mph] from 1800 UTC Oct. 28 to 1800 UTC Oct. 29. JMA’s 12:45 JST bulletin rates In-fa a “very strong” typhoon at 45 m/s [90 kt, 104 mph] (10-min) and 960 hPa. JMA forecasts 50 m/s [100 kt, 115 mph] (10-min) and 935 hPa within a day.

JMA’s track places In-fa in the “Mariana Islands” area at 9 a.m. JST on Oct. 30, then near the Ogasawara Islands Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. JTWC’s 0600 UTC Oct. 30 point, 18.2N 146.1E, lies near the northern islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, read from the forecast coordinates. JTWC forecasts 120 kt [138 mph] (1-min) there.

Vance: a brief major hurricane, now a rain threat for Mexico

Vance stayed offshore all week but brings heavy rain to western Mexico. It formed south of Acapulco on Oct. 21 and strengthened from 60 to 100 kt [115 mph] (1-min) in 24 hours, NHC said. NHC’s discussion said it “briefly reached major hurricane intensity” on the evening of Oct. 23.

At 2:00 a.m. MST on Oct. 27, NHC had Vance at 45 mph [75 km/h] and 1002 mb, with no watches or warnings. NHC forecasts 2 to 4 inches [50 to 100 mm] of rain over parts of Sinaloa, Durango and coastal Nayarit and Jalisco through Thursday, isolated near 7 inches [180 mm] in Sinaloa. Flooding and mudslides are possible. NHC expects Vance to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 60 hours, “possibly sooner”. No deaths or damage had been reported (Expansión Política, Oct. 24).

Quieter basins

The Atlantic had only Subtropical Storm Josephine, which peaked at 65 mph [100 km/h] (1-min) at 5:00 p.m. AST on Oct. 21. It stayed offshore and became extratropical on Oct. 22, with only minor to moderate coastal flooding and rip currents from the Mid-Atlantic to Atlantic Canada. The Central Pacific’s Olana was a short-lived tropical storm over open water, ending as a remnant low on Oct. 26. In the Southwest Indian Ocean, Agueda stayed at sea near the Seychelles. The Australian and South Pacific basins have had no systems.

Season to date

The Eastern and Western Pacific have already passed their full-season averages, while the Atlantic is well short on hurricanes.

In NHC’s 1991-2020 climatology, the sixth Atlantic hurricane forms by Oct. 15 on average; 2026 has had one, Isaias. The Central Pacific adds three more named storms, Lala, Moke and Olana, to the Eastern Pacific’s count. The North Indian Ocean season list, last updated in late September, shows six depressions and no named storms before Arnab. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory on Oct. 8 and says a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027; its next update is due Nov. 12.

What to watch this week

Arnab’s landfall on Wednesday and In-fa’s approach to the Marianas late in the week are the key events. NHC does not expect any new tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific over the next 7 days, so it lists no 48-hour or 7-day formation odds.

About this report

This weekly roundup draws on NHC and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for the Americas, JTWC and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the Western Pacific, IMD for the North Indian Ocean, and PAGASA for the Philippines. Agencies average winds over different periods: NHC and JTWC use 1 minute, JMA and PAGASA 10 minutes, and IMD 3 minutes. The same storm can therefore carry different wind figures, and the 1-minute figure is usually the highest. Times are given in each agency’s own zone, and figures change with every new advisory.

• Saffir-Simpson category: NHC’s 1 to 5 hurricane wind scale; Category 3 and above is a major hurricane.
• Very severe cyclonic storm: IMD’s class above a severe cyclonic storm, used for Arnab.
• Very strong typhoon: JMA’s grade above a plain typhoon, used for In-fa.
• Extratropical or post-tropical: a storm that has lost its tropical structure; it can still bring strong winds and rain.
• Invest: a disturbance that forecasters are monitoring for possible development.

Frequently asked questions

Where and when will Cyclone Arnab make landfall? IMD expects Arnab to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam near Kakinada, on Wednesday morning, Oct. 28. It is forecast to weaken steadily over land on Oct. 29 and 30.

Will Typhoon In-fa hit Guam or Saipan? The JMA and JTWC forecast tracks pass north of Saipan around Oct. 30, near the northern Mariana Islands, as read from their forecast coordinates. Track forecasts four days out can shift, so residents should follow National Weather Service Guam and local authorities.

Is any storm threatening the United States or the Gulf of Mexico? No. NHC reported no Atlantic tropical cyclones at 2:00 a.m. EDT on Oct. 27 and expects no formation over the next 7 days.

Why do Champi’s wind speeds differ between reports? Agencies use different averaging periods and measure at different times. JTWC’s 1-minute winds run higher than the 10-minute winds used by JMA and PAGASA, and Taiwan’s figures described the storm as it weakened near the island.

Will Vance reach Mexico? NHC does not forecast a landfall, and no watches or warnings are in effect. Its moisture is still forecast to bring heavy rain, with possible flooding and mudslides, to parts of western Mexico through Thursday.

Sources

Atlantic

• NHC home page, updated 1050 UTC Oct. 27
• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, 2:00 a.m. EDT Oct. 27
• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion, 1215 UTC Oct. 27
• Josephine Public Advisory 1, 5:00 p.m. AST Oct. 21; Advisory 5, 5:00 p.m. AST Oct. 22; Discussion 5, Oct. 22
• NHC 2026 Atlantic storm list, accessed Oct. 27
• NHC climatology, 1991–2020 averages
• AP via AJC on Josephine, Oct. 22
• AccuWeather on Josephine, updated Oct. 23

• Wikipedia: 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, current to Oct. 22
• Wikipedia: 2026 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, current to late September

Eastern and Central Pacific

• Vance Public Advisory 24, Forecast Advisory 24 and Discussion 24, 2:00 a.m. MST Oct. 27
• Vance Advisory 1, Oct. 21; Advisory 10 and Discussion 11, Oct. 23
• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 p.m. PDT Oct. 26
• CPHC Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 p.m. HST Oct. 26
• Olana Public Advisory 7, 5:00 p.m. HST Oct. 26
• Trudy Public Advisory 27, 8:00 p.m. MST Oct. 19
• NHC 2026 Eastern Pacific storm list, as of 0300 UTC Oct. 26; Central Pacific list
• Expansión Política on Vance, Oct. 24

Western Pacific

• JTWC Typhoon 30W (In-fa) Warning 16, 0900 UTC Oct. 27
• JTWC 29W (Champi) final warning, 2100 UTC Oct. 25
• JTWC Western Pacific outlook, 0600 UTC Oct. 26
• JMA In-fa specifications, 12:45 JST Oct. 27
• JMA typhoon normals, 1991–2020
• PAGASA severe weather bulletin page, 10:00 p.m. PHT Oct. 26
• Digital Typhoon 2026 list, accessed Oct. 27
• GMA News on Rosal, Oct. 21 and Oct. 24
• Focus Taiwan, Oct. 23
• Al Jazeera, Oct. 23, updated Oct. 24
• EWN/AFP, Oct. 24
• South China Morning Post, Oct. 24
• Bastille Post, Oct. 24

North Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere

• JTWC TC 02B (Arnab) Warning 5, 0300 UTC Oct. 27
• JTWC Indian Ocean outlook, 0300 UTC Oct. 26
• KalingaTV on Arnab, Oct. 27
• AP7AM on Arnab, Oct. 27
• ETV Bharat live updates, Oct. 27
• Pragativadi on Arnab, Oct. 27
• Wikipedia: 2026–27 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, accessed Oct. 27
• Weathernews on Agueda, Oct. 22

Climate and outlooks

• NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion, Oct. 8
• Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Oct. 14