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Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: 7-Day Major Cyclone Outlook

By Paul Harrison | Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: Tuesday, November 10, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Cyclone Murasu was the week’s only tropical cyclone landfall. India’s IMD said the severe cyclonic storm crossed the south Andhra Pradesh coast near Ongole between 3:30 and 5:30 a.m. IST on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Officials reported at least two deaths (Anadolu Agency, Nov. 4).

No active storm is forecast to make landfall. Typhoon Cempaka is passing south of Japan’s remote Ogasawara Islands and weakening. Tropical Storm Pena is far south of Hawaii, and the Atlantic is quiet. This report reviews Tuesday, Nov. 3 to Monday, Nov. 9, 2026, and looks ahead from Tuesday, Nov. 10 to Monday, Nov. 16. It is current to 7:21 a.m. EST (12:21 UTC) on Tuesday, Nov. 10.

National weather services and local authorities issue the official warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active systems now

Two tropical cyclones are active worldwide, and neither is forecast to make landfall. JTWC and NHC list no invests or disturbances in any basin.

System

Basin

Latest position

Winds (agency, averaging)

Movement

Issued

Threat to land

Typhoon Cempaka (JMA No. 2632; JTWC 31W; PAGASA “Samuel”)

Western Pacific

24.9N 136.5E (JMA, 3 a.m. JST Nov. 10)

86 mph [75 kt] (JMA, 10-min); 109 mph [95 kt] (JTWC, 1-min)

ENE at 13 mph [11 kt] (JMA)

JMA 3:45 a.m. JST Nov. 10; JTWC 0600 UTC Nov. 10

Passing south of the Ogasawara Islands Nov. 10–11; no landfall forecast

Tropical Storm Pena (CP04)

Central Pacific

11.7N 163.9W, about 770 miles SSW of Honolulu

40 mph (CPHC/NHC, 1-min)

W at 14 mph

11 p.m. HST Mon., Nov. 9 (Advisory 15)

None; no watches or warnings

The week in review

Four tropical cyclones were active between Nov. 3 and Nov. 9, and only Murasu reached land. The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific produced no storms.

Storm

Basin

Dates (2026)

Peak intensity (agency, averaging)

Landfall

Reported toll

Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu

North Indian Ocean

Depression Oct. 31; low again Nov. 4

63 mph [55 kt, 100–110 km/h], 994 hPa (IMD, 3-min)

South Andhra Pradesh near Ongole, India, 3:30–5:30 a.m. IST Nov. 3 (IMD)

At least 2 deaths (APSDMA via Anadolu, Nov. 4); about 30,000 people to be evacuated (Al Jazeera/Reuters, Nov. 3)

Typhoon In-Fa

Western Pacific

Named Oct. 23; extratropical by 9 a.m. JST Nov. 6 (JMA)

104 mph [90 kt], 940 hPa (JMA, 10-min) on Oct. 29; super typhoon at 150 mph (JTWC, 1-min, per FOX Weather) on Oct. 28

None

None reported

Typhoon Cempaka

Western Pacific

Named Nov. 7; active

So far 86 mph [75 kt], 970 hPa (JMA, 10-min); 109 mph [95 kt], 963 mb (JTWC, 1-min)

None

None reported

Tropical Storm Pena

Central Pacific

Named Nov. 6; active

60 mph, 993 mb (CPHC Advisory 6, 5 p.m. HST Nov. 7, 1-min)

None

None

The biggest stories

Cyclone Murasu, North Indian Ocean

Murasu was India’s second landfalling cyclone in a week, after Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab struck near Kakinada on Oct. 28. IMD’s Advisory 12, based on 1800 UTC Nov. 2, placed Murasu about 50 km [31 miles] southeast of Ongole with 55 kt gusting to 65 kt. It said the “landfall process began at 1930 UTC,” which was 1 a.m. IST Nov. 3. Murasu weakened over land to a deep depression by 11:30 p.m. IST Nov. 3 and to a well-marked low by 11:30 a.m. IST Nov. 4.

The toll figures conflict and are preliminary. On Nov. 3, the state disaster agency (APSDMA) told Reuters there were no deaths or injuries. On Nov. 4, Anadolu Agency reported at least two deaths, citing APSDMA officials. An official release quoted by The Tribune (Nov. 3) put crop damage at 30,661 acres across 15 districts. IMD reported isolated extremely heavy rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Nov. 3–4, and over Telangana on Nov. 4.

Typhoon Cempaka, Western Pacific

Cempaka is the season’s 32nd named storm and is now weakening south of Japan. JMA named it at noon JST Nov. 7 over the Mariana Islands and upgraded it to a typhoon by 3 p.m. JST Nov. 8. It briefly entered the Philippine area of responsibility as “Samuel” on Nov. 9. PAGASA’s final bulletin (5 p.m. PHT Nov. 9) said it had left, with no wind signals raised.

JTWC’s 1-minute estimate (95 kt) runs well above JMA’s 10-minute figure (75 kt), partly because of the different averaging periods. Weathernews (Nov. 9) expected Cempaka to pass just south of the Ogasawara Islands from the afternoon of Nov. 10 to the morning of Nov. 11. It gave an 88% chance that the islands fall inside the storm-force wind area. JTWC forecasts the storm to become extratropical by 0600 UTC Nov. 11. JMA expects a tropical depression near Wake Island by 1800 UTC Nov. 12. No damage had been reported as of Nov. 10.

Typhoon In-Fa, Western Pacific

In-Fa ended its long life near the Ogasawara Islands early in the week. Chichijima recorded a peak gust of 25.4 m/s [57 mph] at 12:45 p.m. JST Nov. 5, with swells of about 4 m [13 ft] (Weathernews, Nov. 5). Its moisture fed a front that brought heavy rain to southern Kanto and the Izu Islands on Nov. 4–5 (Kyodo, Nov. 6). No deaths or injuries were reported in those accounts. JMA declared In-Fa extratropical by 9 a.m. JST Nov. 6.

Tropical Storm Pena, Central Pacific

Pena is a weak storm with no threat to Hawaii. Advisories began at 11 a.m. HST Friday, Nov. 6, with 45 mph winds. Early forecasts called for a hurricane, but wind shear stopped it (Honolulu Star-Advertiser, Nov. 8). Advisory 15 said “little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days.” An earlier CPHC discussion (11 a.m. HST Nov. 9) said the 40 mph estimate “could be generous” and that “dissipation within a couple of days is possible.” CPHC’s latest track reaches 179.4W at 0600 UTC Nov. 13 and 175.2E a day later, so Pena would cross the Date Line into JMA’s area in between.

Quiet basins

Two lows failed to develop. In the Atlantic, NHC gave a non-tropical low south of Bermuda a 30% chance in 48 hours and 50% in seven days of becoming Subtropical Storm Kyle (as reported by theweather.com, Nov. 4). By Nov. 6 its odds were “low and decreasing” (FOX Weather), and it never formed. In the Eastern Pacific, a low off El Salvador and Nicaragua had 40% and 60% odds (Diario El Mundo, Nov. 6, citing NHC), but NHC’s 10 a.m. PST Nov. 9 outlook put both at near 0%. JTWC listed no systems in the Southern Hemisphere.

Season to date

The Eastern and Western Pacific have already passed a full season’s average, while the Atlantic sits well below normal.

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By Nov. 10, an average Atlantic season has produced about 13 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on NHC’s average formation dates. The Eastern Pacific has had 10 major hurricanes, two and a half times its full-season average. Four named storms have formed in the Central Pacific, the latest being Pena. In the North Indian Ocean, Arnab and Murasu are the year’s two cyclonic storms on IMD’s record.

NOAA’s CPC kept an El Niño Advisory in effect on Oct. 8: “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027.” Its next update is due Nov. 12.

What to watch this week

The main item ahead is a low IMD expects in the Bay of Bengal late in the week. NHC lists no Atlantic or Eastern Pacific disturbances, so it gives no 48-hour or 7-day odds this week.

When

What

Issued by

Tue., Nov. 10 to Wed., Nov. 11

Cempaka passes south of the Ogasawara Islands and weakens; JTWC forecasts it extratropical by 0600 UTC Nov. 11

JMA, JTWC

Thu., Nov. 12

CPC issues its monthly ENSO update

NOAA CPC

Thu., Nov. 12 to Fri., Nov. 13

Cold front reaches the northwest Gulf of Mexico Thursday and may enter the northwest Caribbean Friday; NHC expects no tropical formation in the Atlantic for seven days (7 p.m. EST Nov. 9 outlook)

NHC

Nov. 13 to 14 (UTC)

Pena, if it survives, crosses the Date Line between 0600 UTC Nov. 13 and 0600 UTC Nov. 14 on CPHC’s track

CPHC/NHC, then JMA

From about Nov. 13

Low pressure area likely over the southeast Bay of Bengal; IMD rates the chance of a depression low at 96–120 hours, moderate at 120–144 hours and high at 144–168 hours (outlook based on 0300 UTC Nov. 10)

IMD

About this report

This roundup draws on the official forecast agencies for each basin. NHC covers the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, with CPHC products for the Central Pacific. JMA and JTWC cover the Western Pacific, PAGASA the Philippine area, and IMD the North Indian Ocean. Wind speeds differ between agencies partly because of averaging: NHC and JTWC use 1-minute winds, JMA uses 10-minute winds and IMD uses 3-minute winds. A 1-minute figure is usually higher for the same storm. Times follow each agency’s own zone: EST and PST for NHC, HST for the Central Pacific, JST for JMA, PHT for PAGASA, IST for IMD, and UTC for JTWC. Figures come from the latest products available when the report was written and will change with later advisories.

Glossary

  • Tropical storm: a tropical cyclone strong enough to receive a name, but below hurricane or typhoon strength.
  • Typhoon: JMA’s name for a Western Pacific tropical cyclone of hurricane strength. JMA also grades typhoons as “strong” or “very strong.”
  • Super typhoon: JTWC’s label for its strongest Western Pacific typhoons, based on 1-minute winds.
  • Severe cyclonic storm: an IMD class in the North Indian Ocean, above cyclonic storm and below very severe cyclonic storm.
  • Extratropical: a storm that has lost its tropical structure and is driven by temperature contrasts, as In-Fa did on Nov. 6.

Frequently asked questions

Will Tropical Storm Pena affect Hawaii? No. Pena is about 770 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and moving west, away from the islands. No watches or warnings have been issued at any point.

Is anything brewing in the Atlantic? No. NHC’s outlook issued at 7 p.m. EST Nov. 9 said tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days. A low south of Bermuda that NHC watched last week as a possible Subtropical Storm Kyle never developed.

Why do JTWC and JMA give such different winds for Cempaka? JTWC estimates 1-minute winds and JMA 10-minute winds, so JTWC’s figure is normally higher. The two agencies also make separate estimates of the storm’s strength. Both show Cempaka weakening as it moves northeast.

Could another cyclone hit India soon? It is too early to say. IMD expects a low pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around Nov. 13. It rates the chance of that low becoming a depression as high only six to seven days out, and it has issued no track forecast.

Why has the Western Pacific been so busy? Cempaka is the 32nd named storm of 2026, well above JMA’s 1991–2020 normal of 25.1 a year. Weathernews says no year has had 32 since 1994. NOAA’s CPC has an El Niño Advisory in effect, and FOX Weather linked this year’s run of super typhoons to that El Niño.

Sources

Atlantic

Eastern and Central Pacific

Western Pacific

North Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere

Season and ENSO

Sources & Methodology
Weekly Global Weather Watch is compiled by Orbis Weather using information from official national and international meteorological agencies, including NOAA, the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization and relevant national weather agencies worldwide.

Orbis Weather reviews these official observations, forecasts, warnings and outlooks to identify the most significant global weather patterns and hazards for the week ahead. Forecast conditions can change as new observations and model guidance become available.

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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