Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Update – Wednesday, November 11, 2026

By Paul Harrison | Orbis Weather

Published: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 (Southwest Indian Ocean local date)

Coverage: Madagascar, Mozambique Channel, Mauritius, Réunion, Mayotte, Comoros, Seychelles, Mozambique, Rodrigues and the surrounding Southwest Indian Ocean.

Forecast period: November 11–16, 2026

Latest verified official information: Météo-France La Réunion tropical cyclone outlook issued November 9, 2026, together with its November 10 local forecast covering November 11.

Editorial verification note: The November 11 basin-wide cyclone bulletin was not yet available for verification when this report was prepared. The tropical development assessment below is based on the November 9 official outlook and must not be interpreted as a newly issued November 11 forecast.

🌍 Tropical Depression 02 Dissipating as Southwest Indian Ocean Enters a Quieter Period

The Southwest Indian Ocean enters Wednesday, November 11, with no active tropical depression or named tropical cyclone identified in the latest verified regional cyclone outlook.

The remnants of Tropical Depression 02-20262027, which developed near northern Madagascar, have been weakening as they move west-northwestward across the northern Mozambique Channel region.

Météo-France La Réunion reported on November 9 that the system was no longer being monitored as an organized tropical depression. Its remaining circulation was expected to pass southwest of the Seychelles on Tuesday before dissipating by Wednesday evening.

Although the depression has lost its organization, moisture associated with its southern circulation has contributed to unsettled conditions around Mayotte.

The official outlook also indicated no risk of tropical storm formation during its five-day assessment period, despite the possibility of a new area of disturbed weather developing farther east later in the week.

For residents across Madagascar, Mayotte, Comoros, Mauritius and Réunion, the immediate priority is monitoring localized rainfall and marine conditions rather than preparing for a confirmed approaching tropical cyclone.

🌀 1. Current Tropical Cyclone Activity

What happened to Tropical Depression 02?

The system weakened considerably after approaching the northern tip of Madagascar.

By Monday afternoon, November 9, its residual center was approximately 200 kilometers (124 miles) north-northwest of Madagascar’s northernmost point.

Forecasters expected the remnants to continue west-northwestward, moving southwest of the Seychelles before dissipating.

This represents a substantial reduction in the system’s organized wind threat.

However, the disappearance of a tropical depression does not automatically eliminate the possibility of heavy rainfall.

Moisture left behind can continue producing thunderstorms, particularly where humid air interacts with local terrain or converging winds.

Assessment: Depression 02 was forecast to dissipate by Wednesday evening. Its final dissipation had not yet been independently confirmed at publication.

🌧️ 2. Madagascar: Residual Moisture and Localized Rainfall

Northern Madagascar has been the principal land area closest to the former depression.

The system’s weakening circulation passed near the northern end of the island before continuing west-northwestward.

Northern Madagascar

The main weather concerns are now associated with residual moisture rather than a strengthening cyclone.

Potential localized hazards include:

• 🌧️ Heavy showers where thunderstorms develop.

• ⛈️ Isolated thunderstorms with brief intense rainfall.

• 🌊 Locally rough coastal waters during unsettled weather.

• ⚠️ Flash flooding in vulnerable low-lying areas if repeated downpours occur.

These are potential hazards, not confirmation of active flood warnings.

Communities around Antsiranana and the northern coastal districts should continue checking Madagascar’s national meteorological guidance.

Eastern Madagascar

The latest verified cyclone outlook does not identify an organized tropical cyclone approaching the eastern coast.

Nevertheless, Madagascar’s eastern coastal areas remain exposed to trade-wind showers and locally rough seas throughout the tropical season.

Outlook: The former depression’s organized circulation is expected to disappear, with any remaining rainfall risk depending on local atmospheric conditions.

⛈️ 3. Mayotte and Comoros: Thunderstorm Monitoring Continues

Mayotte remains an important area to monitor following the passage of moisture associated with Depression 02.

Météo-France reported that humid air carried along the southern side of the weakening system was producing stormy weather over Mayotte early in the week.

Mayotte

Possible impacts from lingering tropical moisture include localized downpours, thunderstorms, temporary reductions in visibility and rapid runoff in poorly drained areas.

The presence of tropical moisture does not necessarily mean widespread flooding will occur.

The distribution and intensity of thunderstorms can vary considerably over short distances.

Comoros

The Comoros archipelago lies within the broader northern Mozambique Channel region.

Moisture associated with the former depression may contribute to unsettled weather, although the verified basin outlook does not establish a specific island-by-island rainfall forecast for Wednesday.

Residents should monitor national forecasts, particularly before coastal travel or journeys through flood-prone terrain.

Outlook: The primary concern is localized rainfall, not a confirmed direct cyclone strike.

🇷🇪 4. Réunion: Showers Developing Across the Highlands

Réunion is not expected to experience a direct impact from the former Tropical Depression 02.

Météo-France’s November 10 forecast provides a more detailed picture of conditions expected on Wednesday, November 11.

Wednesday weather forecast

The day is expected to begin with cloudier conditions across eastern parts of the island, particularly between Beau Pays and Sainte-Rose.

A few early showers are possible in the east.

Western areas should enjoy clearer skies during the morning before cloud development increases over the slopes and interior.

During the afternoon, showers are expected across the highlands and cirques, with some extending toward northern and western coastal districts.

Rainfall could be more persistent along the slopes of the volcano.

🌡️ Temperatures

Temperatures are expected to remain broadly similar to Tuesday:

These are indicative temperatures from the official forecast, not observations from individual weather stations.

🌊 Marine conditions

A southerly swell is expected along exposed western and southern coastlines.

Wave heights associated with the swell should remain below approximately 2 meters (6.6 feet), gradually easing later in the day.

Eastern winds will remain noticeable along the southern coast, while local breezes dominate western areas.

Outlook: No special weather vigilance was indicated in the reviewed forecast. Mountain showers and exposed coastal swell remain worth monitoring.

🇲🇺 5. Mauritius and Rodrigues: No Confirmed Direct Cyclone Threat

Mauritius and Rodrigues are not identified as direct impact areas from the remnants of Depression 02.

The system has been located considerably farther northwest, near Madagascar and the northern Mozambique Channel.

For the Mascarene Islands, attention remains focused on routine early-season tropical monitoring.

Mauritius

The main considerations are changes in trade winds, local showers, thunderstorms and marine conditions.

No Mauritius-specific cyclone warning for November 11 has been independently verified for this article.

Rodrigues

Rodrigues lies farther east and remains an important location for monitoring tropical disturbances developing over the central Indian Ocean.

There is no verified evidence in the reviewed basin outlook of an organized cyclone approaching Rodrigues.

Outlook: No direct threat from Depression 02 was identified. Residents and maritime operators should continue following the Mauritius Meteorological Services.

🇸🇨 6. Seychelles: Remnants Expected to Pass Southwest of the Islands

The former Depression 02 was forecast to move southwest of the Seychelles on Tuesday, November 10, before dissipating on Wednesday.

Météo-France did not identify a particular cyclone threat to the Seychelles from the weakening circulation.

However, scattered thunderstorms and tropical rainfall can occur independently of an organized cyclone.

Areas to monitor

The main considerations are local thunderstorm development, visibility during heavy showers and marine conditions along exposed routes.

A disturbance passing nearby does not automatically mean every island will experience severe weather.

Outlook: No direct organized cyclone impact was forecast in the latest verified regional bulletin.

🌊 7. Mozambique Channel and Mozambique Coast

The northern Mozambique Channel has been the main area affected by the remnants of Depression 02.

As the residual circulation weakens, the potential for organized tropical winds should diminish.

Nevertheless, localized showers and thunderstorms can persist in a moist tropical environment.

Northern Mozambique

Coastal communities should monitor local forecasts for heavy rainfall, thunderstorm activity and changing marine conditions.

There is no verified forecast in the reviewed information indicating a tropical cyclone landfall in Mozambique during this period.

Central and southern Mozambique

The latest verified basin outlook does not identify an organized tropical cyclone threatening these coastal districts.

Normal seasonal monitoring remains important as the Southern Hemisphere summer approaches.

Outlook: No confirmed tropical cyclone landfall threat, but local rainfall and marine forecasts remain relevant.

🔎 8. Central Indian Ocean: Could Another Disturbance Develop?

Météo-France’s November 9 bulletin suggested that a new area of disturbed weather could begin forming later in the week between the central and northeastern portions of the basin.

However, the same bulletin indicated no risk of tropical storm formation during its five-day outlook period.

This distinction matters.

A tropical disturbance can produce cloud clusters, thunderstorms and a broad area of low pressure without developing into a tropical depression or named storm.

For tropical cyclone development, meteorologists look for several conditions:

• Persistent organized thunderstorms.

• A sufficiently defined low-level circulation.

• Favorable upper-level winds.

• Adequate ocean heat and atmospheric moisture.

• Sustained strengthening of the circulation.

At present, the verified outlook does not support assigning a storm name, projected landfall or specific cyclone intensity to the possible development area.

Development assessment: No tropical storm formation risk was indicated through the official five-day outlook issued November 9. Conditions beyond that period require updated guidance.

📅 9. Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook: November 11–16, 2026

The following table separates the verified official outlook from monitoring priorities for later dates. It is not a day-by-day numerical forecast.

Forecast confidence

Higher confidence: Depression 02 has been weakening and was expected to dissipate.

Moderate confidence: Residual moisture could contribute to unsettled conditions around Mayotte and neighboring areas early in the week.

Lower confidence: Exact thunderstorm locations, local rainfall totals and the evolution of any new disturbance later in the week.

No specific rainfall accumulations or cyclone tracks are being presented without verified supporting forecasts.

🌡️ 10. Why November Matters for the Southwest Indian Ocean Cyclone Season

November marks the transition toward the more active months of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season.

As the Southern Hemisphere warms, ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions can become increasingly favorable for tropical disturbances.

The basin generally experiences its most active period during the austral summer, with activity commonly peaking around January through March.

Factors influencing cyclone formation

Ocean temperatures: Warm ocean water provides energy for developing tropical systems.

Vertical wind shear: Strong changes in wind speed or direction with altitude can disrupt developing cyclones.

Atmospheric moisture: Moist middle-level air supports sustained thunderstorm development.

Tropical convergence: Areas where winds meet can encourage rising air and low-pressure formation.

Large-scale climate patterns: El Niño and other climate influences can change atmospheric circulation and regional cyclone activity.

Even during a quieter-than-average season, individual tropical cyclones can still produce severe impacts.

Seasonal forecasts should never be interpreted as guarantees that a particular island or coastline will remain safe.

⚠️ 11. Understanding the Main Tropical Hazards

Heavy rainfall and flooding

Tropical systems can generate significant rainfall even when their winds are relatively weak.

Flash flooding may occur when intense thunderstorms repeatedly affect the same drainage basin.

Coastal waves and dangerous seas

Long-period swells can travel considerable distances from their originating weather systems.

A coastline can experience hazardous surf even when the associated storm is far away.

Landslides

Mountainous areas of Madagascar, Réunion and other islands can be vulnerable to slope instability following prolonged heavy rainfall.

Strong winds

Tropical disturbances can produce squalls well away from their centers.

However, the latest verified outlook does not identify an active organized tropical cyclone producing a widespread basin-wide wind threat.

📡 12. What Orbis Weather Is Monitoring Over the Next 72 Hours

The next three days will be important for establishing whether the basin remains quiet or begins showing signs of renewed tropical organization.

1. Final dissipation of Depression 02: Confirmation that its remaining circulation has disappeared.

2. Mayotte and Comoros rainfall: Whether lingering moisture continues to support thunderstorms or localized heavy rain.

3. Central and northeastern Indian Ocean: Whether a new area of disturbed weather becomes more organized later in the week.

4. Mascarene Islands: Changes in local rainfall, trade winds and coastal sea conditions.

5. Northern Mozambique Channel: Any renewed concentration of convection or localized rainfall hazards.

Any new tropical depression or named cyclone should be confirmed against the latest official Météo-France La Réunion analysis before publication.

📚 13. Official Weather Sources and Forecast Verification

Orbis Weather uses official meteorological agencies and recognized scientific organizations as primary references.

The following resources provide cyclone monitoring, forecasts, warnings and supporting information.

Editorial methodology

This report combines official tropical cyclone outlooks, national meteorological forecasts and meteorological analysis.

Orbis Weather distinguishes between confirmed observations, official forecasts and general weather risks.

Where a current observation or warning cannot be independently verified, it is identified as unconfirmed rather than presented as live information.

Forecasts may change as new observations and numerical model guidance become available.

Corrections and updates

If an official meteorological agency revises a cyclone’s position, intensity, classification or development probability, the relevant information should be updated with the new bulletin’s issuance time.

Any substantive factual correction should be clearly identified and dated.

Orbis Weather does not issue official cyclone warnings. Readers should follow their national meteorological services and emergency management authorities for safety decisions.

🌍 14. Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Summary

As Wednesday, November 11, 2026, begins across the Southwest Indian Ocean, the principal tropical weather story is the expected final dissipation of Tropical Depression 02 near the northern Mozambique Channel.

The latest verified official outlook reported no active tropical depression or named tropical cyclone in the basin.

Moisture left behind by Depression 02 has contributed to unsettled conditions around Mayotte, while the remnants were forecast to move southwest of the Seychelles and disappear by Wednesday evening.

Réunion is expecting a mixture of cloud, highland showers and locally unsettled coastal seas, but no direct influence from the former depression.

Mauritius and Rodrigues remain outside its forecast influence.

Farther east, forecasters are monitoring the possibility of another disturbed area developing later in the week, although the verified five-day outlook did not identify a risk of tropical storm formation.

The bottom line: The Southwest Indian Ocean is entering a relatively quiet period for organized tropical cyclone activity, but localized rainfall, thunderstorms and marine hazards still deserve attention.

With the 2026–2027 cyclone season underway, continued monitoring remains essential.

Orbis Weather | Global Weather, Tropical Cyclones & Natural Hazards

Reported by Paul Harrison

Published: November 11, 2026

Official tropical cyclone information last verified from the November 9 Météo-France La Réunion bulletin. Réunion’s November 11 forecast was available in the November 10 local weather bulletin.

Disclaimer: This article provides independent weather reporting and analysis for general information. It is not an official meteorological warning, emergency alert or substitute for guidance from local authorities