🌎 Weekly Global Weather Watch

September 6–12, 2026

From a major hurricane threat in Hawaii to dangerous September heat in Europe and continuing monsoon hazards across Asia, the atmosphere remains unusually active as the Northern Hemisphere moves toward autumn.

Here are the biggest weather stories to watch around the world this week.

🌀 CENTRAL PACIFIC — HURRICANE LOWELL THREATENS HAWAII

The most immediate tropical threat is Hurricane Lowell, which remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane in the Central Pacific.

As of Sunday morning, Lowell had maximum sustained winds near 125 mph (200 km/h) while moving north-northwest. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Kauai and Niihau.

Even if Lowell’s center remains offshore, Hawaii could experience significant impacts.

🌧️ Heavy rainfall: Tropical moisture associated with Lowell could produce widespread heavy rain across the islands through the middle of the week.

🌊 Dangerous surf: Large swells will create hazardous surf and potentially life-threatening rip currents.

⛰️ Flash flooding & mudslides: The Weather Prediction Center says rainfall totals could reach 3–6 inches across Kauai and the Big Island, with isolated totals exceeding 10 inches. Maui could see localized totals above 8 inches.

⚠️ Risk Level: HIGH

🌀 EASTERN PACIFIC — HURRICANE MARIE

The Eastern Pacific remains unusually busy.

Hurricane Marie was producing maximum sustained winds around 80 mph (130 km/h) Sunday morning while tracking northwest over the open Pacific.

Marie is not expected to make a direct strike on California, but its large swell field continues to affect the coast.

🌊 Dangerous surf and rip currents remain possible along portions of Baja California and Southern California.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karina remains active farther west in the Central Pacific, adding to what has become an exceptionally active stretch of Pacific tropical weather.

⚠️ Risk Level: MODERATE

🌊 ATLANTIC — REMARKABLY QUIET

The Atlantic Basin is experiencing almost the opposite situation.

Following the dissipation of Edouard, there are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

Even more notable: the National Hurricane Center says tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

That is an unusually quiet signal for early September, when Atlantic hurricane activity is normally approaching its climatological peak.

🟢 Risk Level: LOW

🇨🇳 CHINA — DEADLY FLOODING & LANDSLIDES AFTER SAUDEL

Southern and eastern China continue dealing with the aftermath of Typhoon Saudel.

Days of torrential rainfall triggered destructive landslides and flooding. In Jiangxi province, a mudslide in Suichuan County destroyed or damaged homes and forced thousands of residents to relocate.

At least three people were confirmed dead in that landslide, while others remained missing as of Sunday. Additional deaths have been reported elsewhere in storm-affected areas.

The biggest continuing concerns are:

🌧️ Saturated ground
⛰️ Additional landslides
🌊 River flooding
🏚️ Infrastructure damage

⚠️ Risk Level: HIGH

🇵🇭 PHILIPPINES — MONSOON RAINS CONTINUE

The southwest monsoon — locally known as the habagat — remains an important weather driver across the Philippines.

Heavy rain has already prompted school suspensions in several areas for Monday, September 7.

Across Southeast Asia more broadly, the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre expects the southern ASEAN region and parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia to generally run warmer and drier than normal through September 13, although localized monsoon downpours remain possible.

⚠️ Risk Level: MODERATE

🔥 EUROPE — SEPTEMBER HEAT REFUSES TO QUIT

Europe’s extraordinary summer heat is extending into September.

Spain recently matched a national September temperature record when temperatures reached an astonishing 45.7°C (114.3°F).

Spain’s meteorological agency AEMET expects temperatures to remain clearly above seasonal averages across much of the country during September 7–13.

Temperatures above 36°C (97°F) are expected repeatedly across portions of eastern, central and southern Spain.

Southern Spain could approach 40°C (104°F) again.

🔥 Wildfire danger will remain elevated where vegetation is exceptionally dry.

⚠️ Risk Level: HIGH

⛈️ CENTRAL EUROPE — BIG WEATHER CHANGE COMING

While southern Europe remains hot, a major pattern change is expected farther north.

Atlantic air will push eastward through France and Central Europe, producing a dramatic temperature drop.

Parts of France, Austria and Hungary could experience temperature declines of roughly 10–15°C (18–27°F) over only a few days.

As the cooler air collides with hot, humid Mediterranean air, thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall could develop across:

🇫🇷 France
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇮🇹 Northern Italy
🇦🇹 Austria
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇵🇱 Poland

Northern Italy and the Alpine region appear particularly worth watching for heavy rainfall around midweek.

⚠️ Risk Level: MODERATE–HIGH

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — HEAT, HEAVY RAIN & FIRE WEATHER

The Lower 48 will see several competing weather patterns this week.

🔥 Heat: Above-normal temperatures remain favored across large portions of the central and southern United States.

🌧️ Southwest moisture: Increasing moisture from the Gulf of California could eventually raise the risk of heavy rainfall across portions of the Desert Southwest and Great Basin.

🌵 Drought: Dry conditions could worsen across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.

🔥 Western wildfire conditions: Dry vegetation combined with gusty winds continues to create periods of critical fire weather in parts of the West. A Red Flag Warning was in effect Sunday for portions of western Nevada and the eastern Sierra.

⚠️ Risk Level: MODERATE–HIGH

🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA — WARM EAST, WETTER WEST

Australia enters the week with a noticeable east-west weather split.

Eastern portions of the country are experiencing warmer conditions, while fronts moving across southern and western Australia are producing cooler, wetter and occasionally windy weather.

Rainfall remains especially important across areas where winter precipitation has been limited.

⚠️ Risk Level: LOW–MODERATE

🌡️ THE BIG GLOBAL STORY — EL NIÑO IS STRENGTHENING

Behind many of the evolving global weather patterns is an increasingly powerful El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organization announced this week that El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen significantly during the coming months.

Forecast centers now indicate an exceptionally high likelihood — nearly 100% — that El Niño will persist through February 2027.

A very strong El Niño can dramatically rearrange global atmospheric circulation, shifting storm tracks and changing rainfall and temperature patterns.

Possible impacts heading into late 2026 include:

🌧️ Increased flooding in some regions
🏜️ Intensifying drought elsewhere
🔥 Greater extreme-heat risk
🌊 Changes in tropical cyclone activity
❄️ Major shifts in winter storm tracks

This developing El Niño may become one of the defining global weather stories of late 2026 and early 2027.

🌍 GLOBAL WEATHER RISK MAP

👀 What We’re Watching This Week

1. 🌀 Hurricane Lowell: The biggest immediate concern. Hawaii faces heavy rain, flash flooding, mudslides and dangerous surf.

2. 🔥 European heat: Exceptional September temperatures continue across southern Europe while a sharp cooldown and storm threat develops farther north.

3. 🌧️ Asian flooding: Saturated terrain across parts of China remains vulnerable following Typhoon Saudel.

4. 🔥 Western U.S. fire weather: Heat, drought and periods of strong wind could maintain elevated wildfire conditions.

5. 🌡️ Strengthening El Niño: The Pacific climate pattern continues intensifying and could increasingly influence global weather through the remainder of 2026.

🌎 Orbis Weather Weekly Outlook

The week of September 6–12, 2026 features a striking contrast: the Atlantic is unusually quiet while the Pacific remains highly active.

At the same time, extreme September heat continues across Europe, parts of Asia remain vulnerable to flooding and landslides, and strengthening El Niño conditions are beginning to reshape weather patterns around the planet.

Overall Global Weather Threat: 🟠 ELEVATED

Orbis Weather will continue monitoring tropical cyclones, flooding, extreme heat, wildfires and other significant weather events worldwide.