Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Weather Update: Sunday, November 8, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 7:00 a.m. EST (2:00 a.m. HST; 12:00 UTC) on Sunday, November 8, 2026. Based on Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Tropical Storm Pena Advisory 7, issued at 11:00 p.m. HST Saturday, November 7 (09:00 UTC November 8); the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook of 10:00 p.m. PST Saturday (06:00 UTC); the CPHC Tropical Weather Outlook of 8:00 p.m. HST Saturday (06:00 UTC); and the NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion of 10:05 UTC Sunday.

At a glance

Tropical Storm Pena is the only active cyclone in the eastern and central Pacific, moving west far south of Hawaii with no threat to land.

• Pena: a weak tropical storm about 520 miles (835 km) south of South Point, Hawaii, with no coastal watches or warnings and no hazards affecting land.
• No land threats: no storm in either basin has watches, warnings or a forecast landfall, so this report has no land-threat section today.
• Off Central America: a weak low just off Costa Rica has a low (20 percent) chance of forming over 48 hours and 7 days.
• Central Pacific: CPHC expects no other tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days.
• Season: the eastern Pacific has had 20 named storms, already above the full-season average.

The National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and national weather services, including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

One tropical cyclone is active: Tropical Storm Pena in the central Pacific. There are no tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific.

The advisory headline reads: “Satellite wind data indicates that Pena is weaker.” Pena lies about 1,035 miles (1,665 km) east-southeast of Johnston Island. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

CPHC says a general westward motion is expected over the next few days and that “some additional weakening is possible today followed by gradual strengthening.” The forecast advisory takes Pena to 50 knots (about 58 mph, 93 km/h) by Tuesday night HST, and to 177.4°W by 06:00 UTC Friday, November 13, still east of the Date Line. The forecast discussion calls this “a low confidence intensity forecast” and adds: “It is also possible Pena dissipates as a tropical cyclone sometime during this forecast period.” The newest advisory replaces these figures.

Disturbances to watch

One disturbance is being watched, a weak low off Costa Rica, and its formation chances are low.

NHC says the low “continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity” while drifting slowly northwestward, after which conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for development. CPHC says: “Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days” in the central Pacific.

The Sunday Tropical Weather Discussion places the monsoon trough from 10°N 85°W through a 1008 mb low near 10°N 86°W to 7°N 99°W. It reports “fresh to near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,” and says another gap wind event may develop there by Thursday night, possibly reaching gale force into next weekend. Pulses of moderate to large northwest swell will keep reaching Baja California waters into early this week, NHC says.

Season so far

The 2026 season in both basins is running well above normal. The eastern Pacific had already passed the full-season average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes by early November.

NHC’s season summary puts accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at 247.8 in the eastern Pacific, 131 percent above normal to date, and 108.5 in the central Pacific, 362 percent above normal. On the 1991-2020 calendar, the 15th eastern Pacific named storm normally forms around November 5, so a typical season has about reached its full-season count by now. The most recent eastern Pacific storm, Major Hurricane Vance, lasted from October 21 to 29. The central Pacific totals count storms that crossed 140°W, and were compiled before Tropical Storm Pena formed. NHC’s storm tables list slightly more storms than its summary lines, so the summary totals are used here. NHC’s climatology page gives no 1991-2020 central Pacific average.

ENSO: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center discussion of October 8, 2026, keeps an El Niño Advisory in effect: “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027.” The next discussion is due November 12.

What to watch next

• Pena’s next advisory: CPHC’s next complete advisory is due at 5:00 a.m. HST Sunday (15:00 UTC), with updates every six hours after that.
• The Costa Rica low: NHC updates its Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook every six hours; the next routine issue follows the 10:00 p.m. PST Saturday outlook at 4:00 a.m. PST Sunday.
• Central Pacific outlook: CPHC’s next Tropical Weather Outlook is due at 2:00 a.m. HST Sunday.
• Gulf of Tehuantepec: NHC’s Tropical Weather Discussion flags a possible new gap wind event by Thursday night that could reach gale force.
• ENSO update: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues its next ENSO discussion on Thursday, November 12.

About this report

This daily report draws on official NHC and CPHC products and NOAA climate data. It covers the eastern North Pacific, east of 140°W, where NHC in Miami is responsible, and the central North Pacific, from 140°W to the International Date Line, where CPHC in Honolulu is responsible. The eastern Pacific season runs May 15 to November 30, and the central Pacific season June 1 to November 30. Storm times follow the zone each product uses, here HST for Pena and PST for the eastern Pacific outlook, with UTC alongside. Figures are a snapshot at each product’s issue time; newer advisories supersede them.

Glossary

• Tropical storm: a tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (63 to 118 km/h).
• Monsoon trough: a belt of low pressure and converging winds near 10°N where many eastern Pacific storms begin.
• Gap winds (Tehuantepecer): strong northerly winds funneled through a mountain gap in southern Mexico over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• Formation chance: NHC’s and CPHC’s estimate that a disturbance becomes a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours or 7 days.
• Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): a measure of a season’s combined storm strength and duration.

Frequently asked questions

Is Tropical Storm Pena a threat to Hawaii? No threat is forecast. CPHC lists no coastal watches or warnings and no hazards affecting land, and its forecast keeps Pena moving west well south of the islands.

Will Pena reach the western Pacific? The current forecast ends at 177.4°W on Friday, just east of the Date Line. CPHC rates its intensity forecast low confidence and says Pena could dissipate before then.

Could a storm form near Mexico or Central America this week? NHC gives the low off Costa Rica a 20 percent chance over both 48 hours and 7 days. It expects conditions to turn unfavorable after the next day or so.

Why has the 2026 Pacific season been so active? NHC’s figures show eastern Pacific activity far above normal, and NOAA reports a strengthening El Niño. The sources used here do not attribute the season’s activity to a specific cause.

Sources

• CPHC Tropical Storm Pena Public Advisory 7, 11:00 p.m. HST Sat Nov 7, 2026
• CPHC Tropical Storm Pena Forecast/Advisory 7, 09:00 UTC Sun Nov 8, 2026
• CPHC Tropical Storm Pena Forecast Discussion 7, 11:00 p.m. HST Sat Nov 7, 2026
• NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, eastern Pacific, text of 10:00 p.m. PST Sat Nov 7 (NHC) and 8:00 p.m. HST Sat Nov 7 (CPHC)
• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion, 10:05 UTC Sun Nov 8, 2026
• National Hurricane Center home page, cached copy updated 12:30 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2026
• NHC 2026 eastern Pacific season list, as of 21 UTC Nov 6, 2026
• NHC 2026 central Pacific season list, as of 09 UTC Nov 5, 2026
• NHC tropical cyclone climatology, 1991-2020 averages
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, October 8, 2026