WESTERN PACIFIC Tropical Weather Update – November 10, 2026

Typhoon Cempaka Remains Powerful Near Japan’s Ogasawara Islands as Heavy Rain and Rough Seas Affect Parts of the Philippines

By Paul Harrison | Orbis Weather

Published: Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Region: Western North Pacific, Philippine Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan, Japan and surrounding waters

🌏 Western Pacific Tropical Weather Overview

The Western Pacific remains active on Tuesday, November 10, with Typhoon Cempaka (31W) continuing to generate dangerous winds and rough seas south of Japan.

The powerful typhoon is moving east-northeastward across the Philippine Sea toward the waters surrounding Japan’s remote Ogasawara Islands.

Meanwhile, the Philippines is experiencing a combination of northeast monsoon conditions, easterly winds and a shear line, bringing rain, thunderstorms and potentially hazardous marine conditions to several regions.

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Cempaka was the only active tropical cyclone identified across the Western North Pacific in its November 10 basin-wide advisory. No additional tropical disturbances were listed.

🌀 1. Typhoon Cempaka (31W): Latest Position and Intensity

Official observations and advisories – November 10, 2026

Typhoon Cempaka remains a significant tropical cyclone over the open waters south of Japan.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported the following conditions at 9:00 a.m. Japan Standard Time on November 10:

The JTWC estimated maximum sustained winds of approximately 176 km/h (109 mph) at 00:00 UTC, using its one-minute averaging standard. JMA uses a ten-minute averaging standard, explaining part of the difference between the agencies’ intensity estimates.

Where is Cempaka heading?

JMA forecasts indicate that Cempaka will accelerate east-northeastward, passing near the Ogasawara Islands before moving farther into the open Pacific.

The forecast positions are:

These positions are forecasts rather than confirmed future locations. The storm could weaken or change speed more quickly than anticipated.

🇯🇵 2. Japan: Ogasawara Islands Face the Greatest Immediate Tropical Threat

The most immediate concern from Cempaka is for Japan’s remote Ogasawara Islands, including Chichijima and Hahajima.

Although the storm is forecast to move away from Japan’s main islands, its powerful circulation may produce hazardous conditions across nearby waters.

Main hazards

• 🌬️ Strong winds: Potentially damaging gusts, particularly over exposed coastal locations.

• 🌊 Dangerous seas: Large waves and rough offshore conditions near the typhoon.

• 🌧️ Heavy rainfall: Periods of intense rainfall may accompany outer rainbands.

• ⛴️ Marine disruption: Ferry operations and other maritime activities could be affected.

Residents, visitors and vessel operators should follow the latest JMA warnings and local government instructions.

There is no basis in the advisories reviewed to suggest that Cempaka will make landfall on mainland Japan.

🇵🇭 3. Philippines: Monsoon Rains and Thunderstorms Continue

While Cempaka is moving away from the Philippines and remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, unsettled weather continues across parts of the country.

PAGASA’s November 10 weather outlook identifies three major weather influences: the northeast monsoon over Luzon, easterlies across other regions and a shear line affecting parts of southeastern Luzon.

Areas facing rainfall

PAGASA warns that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding or landslides in susceptible areas.

🌊 Philippine marine conditions

Northern Luzon is forecast to experience moderate to strong northeasterly winds, with coastal waters reaching approximately 2.1–4.5 metres (7–15 feet).

Elsewhere around Luzon, seas may reach 2.1–3.8 metres (7–12 feet).

Smaller fishing vessels should pay particular attention to official gale warnings and local maritime guidance.

These marine hazards are associated principally with monsoon conditions, rather than a direct strike from Cempaka.

🇹🇼 4. Taiwan and the Northern Philippine Sea

Cempaka’s east-northeastward track is carrying the storm farther into the open Pacific rather than toward Taiwan.

Based on the available forecast, Taiwan is not positioned along the typhoon’s expected central track.

However, offshore weather conditions can remain hazardous well beyond a tropical cyclone’s immediate circulation.

Mariners operating east and southeast of Taiwan should monitor updated wave forecasts, wind advisories and shipping bulletins.

The Central Weather Administration of Taiwan remains the appropriate authority for local marine and weather warnings.

🇨🇳 5. South China Sea and Coastal China

The November 10 JTWC basin-wide advisory did not identify another active tropical cyclone or developing tropical disturbance in the South China Sea.

This does not mean the region is free from hazardous weather.

Northeasterly monsoon winds, seasonal rain bands and local thunderstorms can still create challenging conditions for fishing fleets and commercial shipping.

Coastal communities should monitor local forecasts for:

• Strong northeast winds and rough coastal waters.

• Locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.

• Reduced visibility during rain or squalls.

• Changes in sea conditions around exposed islands and straits.

Development outlook: No additional organized tropical disturbance was identified in the JTWC advisory issued at 06:00 UTC on November 10.

🌴 6. Guam, Palau and Micronesia

Across the tropical western Pacific, including Guam, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, the primary tropical-cyclone monitoring concern is whether new disturbances develop within the broader monsoon and trade-wind environment.

The reviewed JTWC advisory did not identify a separate tropical disturbance requiring classification in this region.

Nevertheless, localized showers, thunderstorms and changing marine conditions remain possible even without a named storm.

For island communities, it is important to distinguish between an organized tropical cyclone threat and routine tropical convection.

Local forecasts from the National Weather Service offices serving Guam and Micronesia should be consulted for island-specific conditions.

📊 7. Western Pacific Tropical Activity Summary

Based on JTWC’s November 10, 06:00 UTC advisory

This summary is a snapshot of the official advisory and is not a guarantee that additional tropical development cannot occur.

🔭 8. Western Pacific Tropical Outlook: November 10–15

November 10–11: Cempaka approaches the Ogasawara region

The typhoon is expected to remain intense while moving east-northeastward.

The greatest concern is for offshore waters and the Ogasawara Islands, where strong winds and dangerous seas may occur.

November 12: Weakening over the open Pacific

JMA forecasts indicate that Cempaka will weaken as it accelerates away from Japan.

The storm is expected to remain over the ocean, with its centre moving progressively farther east.

November 13: Tropical cyclone weakens further

The JMA forecast shows Cempaka weakening to a tropical depression south of the Aleutian Islands.

Changes in atmospheric circulation and ocean temperatures may influence the weakening process.

November 14–15: Continued monitoring

Beyond the published forecast positions reviewed for November 13, confidence in the storm’s precise evolution is lower.

The broader Western Pacific should continue to be monitored for new tropical disturbances, but the November 10 JTWC advisory does not establish a new storm formation forecast for November 14–15.

🌡️ 9. El Niño and the Western Pacific Tropical Environment

The Japan Meteorological Agency’s November 10 climate outlook reports an exceptionally strong El Niño event across the equatorial Pacific.

JMA states that the October 2026 sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3 region reached approximately +4.4°C, the highest October anomaly in its record beginning in 1949.

The agency expects El Niño conditions to persist into boreal spring 2027.

El Niño can influence tropical cyclone development across the Western Pacific by altering atmospheric circulation, wind patterns and the geographical distribution of convection.

However, El Niño does not determine the precise formation, intensity or track of an individual typhoon.

Storm-specific forecasts must continue to rely on current observations, atmospheric analysis and numerical weather prediction.

⚠️ 10. Safety and Preparedness

For communities and marine operators across the Western Pacific, the following precautions remain important.

Residents of the Ogasawara Islands: Monitor official typhoon warnings, avoid exposed coastlines during hazardous conditions and follow local emergency instructions.

Philippine communities experiencing heavy rainfall: Stay alert for flooding, particularly near rivers, low-lying roads and landslide-prone slopes.

Fishing vessels and commercial shipping: Review current marine warnings before departure. Offshore hazards can extend far beyond the centre of a tropical cyclone.

Travellers: Check ferry and airline operators for confirmed schedule changes rather than assuming disruption.

🛰️ 11. Official Tropical Weather Sources and Data Methodology

Orbis Weather uses information from recognized national meteorological agencies and tropical cyclone forecasting centres to explain regional weather hazards.

The principal sources for this report are:

How this report is prepared

Orbis Weather reviews available meteorological advisories, forecast information and observational data to provide an accessible summary of significant tropical weather developments.

Wind speeds may differ between forecasting agencies because of different averaging periods and analysis methods.

Forecast tracks and intensity estimates can change as new satellite observations and meteorological data become available.

Regional hazards described in this report should not be interpreted as confirmed local warnings unless supported by the responsible meteorological authority.

Data verification: The Cempaka analysis uses the JMA November 10, 09:00 JST observation and the JTWC November 10, 06:00 UTC basin advisory. Philippine conditions are based on PAGASA’s November 10 daily weather outlook. This report is not a continuously updated live advisory.

📰 12. Final Outlook: Powerful Typhoon Moving Away From Mainland Asia

The Western Pacific’s main tropical weather story on November 10 is Typhoon Cempaka, which remains a powerful storm over the waters south of Japan.

Its forecast east-northeastward movement is expected to take it near the Ogasawara Islands before it weakens over the open Pacific.

For the Philippines, significant rainfall and rough seas remain possible in several regions due to the northeast monsoon, easterlies and a shear line, even though Cempaka is not forecast to approach the country.

With no additional tropical disturbances identified in the latest reviewed JTWC basin advisory, attention remains focused on Cempaka and the possibility of changing conditions across the wider Western Pacific.

Orbis Weather will continue monitoring the basin for significant tropical cyclone developments and changes in official forecasts.