Weekly Earth Watch: Volcanoes, Earthquakes & Natural Hazards – Week ending November 8, 2026

Nov 8, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

At a glance

A moderate earthquake under western Shizuoka brought upper-5 shaking to Aichi Prefecture and injured more than 20 people, while Mayon in the Philippines stayed at Alert Level 3. This edition covers Monday 2 November to Sunday 8 November 2026, with data to about 12:30 UTC on 8 November.

• Earthquakes: a quiet week for large events. No quake reached magnitude 7; the largest were two M6.1 events, off Japan and deep under Fiji. USGS counted 78 quakes of M4.5 or greater.
• Tsunami: no warnings anywhere. Japan issued only a minor sea-level-change forecast after the 6 November quake.
• Volcanoes: Mayon (Philippines) remains at Alert Level 3 and Semeru (Indonesia) at Level III. Bromo (Indonesia) was raised to Level II. Kilauea fountained once and returned to Advisory.
• Storms: Typhoon Cempaka is over the Philippine Sea and is not forecast to hit land. Tropical Storm Pena is weakening south of Hawaii.
• Other hazards: flash floods killed two people in Florida on 2 November; flooding emergencies continued in the US Southwest; a G1 geomagnetic storm is likely through 9 November.
• Products used: USGS catalogue (generated 12:29 UTC, 8 Nov), HVO update (18:24 UTC, 7 Nov), NHC/CPHC advisory 7 for Pena (09:00 UTC, 8 Nov), JTWC advisory (06:00 UTC, 8 Nov), PAGASA (11 a.m. PHT, 8 Nov), GDACS feed (07:05 UTC, 8 Nov), SWPC forecast (12:30 UTC, 7 Nov).

Volcanoes

Mayon is the volcano that matters most this week: it has been at Alert Level 3 since 30 October and erupted ash again on 3 November. The latest Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report in the programme’s feed covers 8–14 October and lists 27 volcanoes, so this section draws on national agencies for the week itself.

Mayon. PHIVOLCS raised Mayon from Alert Level 2 to 3 around noon on 30 October, after a moderately explosive eruption sent ash about 3,000 m high. Local governments ordered evacuation of the 6 km (3.7 mi) Permanent Danger Zone, citing pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and rockfalls (Daily Tribune, 30 Oct; GMA, 3 Nov).

Semeru and Bromo. Semeru’s pyroclastic flows on 6–7 November stayed inside the southeast exclusion sector, and Lumajang’s disaster agency reported normal daily life (Viva, 7 Nov). Nearby Bromo’s rise to Level II is its first increase since 2019, according to IDN Times; PVMBG warned of sudden phreatic eruptions (IDN Times, 6 Nov).

Kilauea. Lava overflowed the north vent at 11:43 a.m. HST on 2 November, and episode 56 fountained from 12:10 to 6:01 p.m. HST on 5 November. HVO estimates about 6 million m3 erupted. The summit is reinflating, and HVO says the next episode is “likely several weeks away” (HVO, 7 Nov).

Residents near active volcanoes should follow PHIVOLCS, PVMBG and local authorities, and leave immediately if told to evacuate.

Continuing eruptions

Earthquakes

The week’s most damaging earthquake was a magnitude 5.5 (USGS) under western Shizuoka early on 8 November local time, which injured more than 20 people in central Japan.

Impacts. Kyodo reported at least 20 people injured in Aichi (The Edge/Kyodo, 8 Nov). NHK reported three minor injuries from falls in Shizuoka and partial damage to some buildings as of 11:00 JST (NHK, 8 Nov). Tokaido Shinkansen trains ran at reduced speed between Shizuoka and Gifu-Hashima, and Chubu Electric found no abnormalities at the Hamaoka nuclear plant (DotDot News, 8 Nov). These figures are preliminary. The green PAGER alert is a model estimate of losses, not a count.

Context. The Nation, citing JMA, reported that a link to a major Nankai Trough earthquake was considered unlikely (The Nation, 8 Nov). Authorities warned that aftershocks could follow in the coming days. Residents should follow JMA and local authorities on safety.

The two largest quakes, both M6.1, caused no reported harm. The 6 November event off the Kanto coast was shallow; JMA put it at M6.1 and 10 km deep, with shindo 3 at most (Weathernews, 6 Nov). The Fiji event was 535 km (332 mi) deep. No quake this week reached magnitude 7. USGS lists 12 events of M7 or greater in 2026 so far.

In Panama, the Instituto de Geociencias had counted 1,056 aftershocks of the 9 October quake by 26 October, with daily numbers falling (La Estrella, 26 Oct). It rates that quake M7.5; USGS gives M7.7.

Magnitude 5.5 and greater, 2–8 November (USGS catalogue, queried 12:29 UTC, 8 Nov)

USGS counted 78 earthquakes of M4.5 or greater from 2 November to the time of the query.

Tsunami

No tsunami warning, advisory or watch was reported this week, and none is in effect.

No tsunami effects were reported. Tsunami.gov showed “No Tsunami Warning, Advisory, Watch, or Threat in effect” on 8 November.

Other natural hazards

Floods caused the week’s reported deaths; no tropical cyclone currently threatens land.

Florida. Palm Bay’s mayor confirmed two deaths after a flash flood emergency on 2 November. Melbourne had 13 in of rain by that afternoon; preliminary reports call it the city’s wettest day on record.

US Southwest. Floods that began in late October continued into this week. One flood death was reported in Santa Fe County, New Mexico, and “multiple” in Arizona, without a count; the source describes its figures as preliminary.

France. GDACS lists two deaths in a flood that began on 4 November; the location within France is not given in the feed.

What to watch next week

A new explosive eruption at Mayon or a stronger Japanese aftershock would change the picture most. HVO expects Kilauea’s next fountain episode to be weeks away.

About this report

Earthquake data come from the USGS catalogue, with Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) figures where they differ. Volcano alert levels are set by national agencies such as PHIVOLCS (Philippines), PVMBG (Indonesia) and the USGS observatories. Storm data come from NHC, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, JTWC and PAGASA; flood and fire alerts from GDACS; space weather from NOAA SWPC. Times are UTC unless marked. Early casualty figures are preliminary and often change. National agencies and local authorities are the authority on what to do; follow evacuation orders immediately.

• Magnitude: a measure of the size of an earthquake at its source. Agencies use different methods, so USGS and JMA figures can differ, as they did this week.
• Shindo: JMA’s seismic intensity scale for shaking at a given place, with 5 and 6 split into lower and upper.
• MMI: the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale used by USGS ShakeMap, from I to X+.
• PAGER: a USGS model estimate of likely deaths and losses, shown as green, yellow, orange or red. It is not a count.
• Volcano alert levels: national scales, such as the Philippines’ 0–5 and Indonesia’s I–IV. Higher numbers mean greater hazard.

Frequently asked questions

Why did a magnitude 5.5 cause injuries when the M6.1 quakes did not? The Shizuoka quake struck under populated land, while the M6.1 events were far offshore or very deep. JMA recorded upper-5 shaking in Aichi from the Shizuoka quake, against shindo 3 at most for the offshore M6.1.

Is the Shizuoka quake linked to the Nankai Trough? According to The Nation, citing JMA, a link to a major Nankai Trough earthquake was considered unlikely. Authorities warned that aftershocks could follow in the coming days.

Is Mayon dangerous right now? PHIVOLCS keeps Mayon at Alert Level 3 and the 6 km danger zone is under mandatory evacuation. People nearby should follow PHIVOLCS and Albay authorities.

Will Typhoon Cempaka hit the Philippines or Japan? PAGASA says Cempaka will not directly affect the Philippines and will turn north-northeast over the Philippine Sea. Its later track should be checked against JMA and PAGASA updates.

Can these earthquakes or eruptions be predicted? No agency predicts the time of a specific earthquake or eruption. Agencies issue alert levels, aftershock advisories and forecasts of likelihood, which can change quickly.

Sources

Earthquakes

• USGS catalogue, M5.5+, 2–8 Nov — generated 12:29 UTC, 8 Nov
• USGS count, M4.5+ — 8 Nov
• USGS M7+ list, 2026 — generated 18 Oct
• USGS event us7000twg9 and us7000tw8r — 8 Nov
• tenki.jp JMA entry, western Shizuoka — 01:06 JST, 8 Nov
• tenki.jp JMA entry, off Ibaraki — 20:12 JST, 7 Nov
• tenki.jp JMA entry, off Kanto — 19:56 JST, 6 Nov
• Weathernews, M6.1 off Kanto — 19:57 JST, 6 Nov
• The Edge Malaysia (Kyodo) — 8 Nov
• The Nation — 8 Nov
• DotDot News — 8 Nov
• NHK, Shizuoka damage — 12:06 JST, 8 Nov
• La Estrella, Panama aftershocks — 26 Oct

Volcanoes

• Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report feed — 8–14 Oct report
• USGS HVO Kilauea updates — 18:24 UTC, 7 Nov
• USGS Volcano Hazards Program updates — 2–7 Nov
• Big Island Video News, 2 Nov and 6 Nov
• Daily Tribune, Mayon — 30 Oct
• GMA, Mayon minor eruption — 2 Nov
• GMA, Mayon ash — 3 Nov
• Monitor Indonesia, Bromo — 5 Nov
• IDN Times, Bromo — 6 Nov
• Malang Times, Semeru — 6 Nov
• Viva, Semeru — 7 Nov
• Okezone, Semeru — 8 Nov

Tsunami

• Tsunami.gov — 8 Nov

Other hazards

• NHC home and outlooks — 7–8 Nov
• CPHC Tropical Storm Pena advisory 7 — 09:00 UTC, 8 Nov
• JTWC significant tropical weather advisory — 06:00 UTC, 8 Nov
• GMA/PAGASA, Cempaka — 11:37 PHT, 8 Nov
• GDACS feed — 07:05 UTC, 8 Nov
• weather.com, Florida floods — updated 4 Nov
• Western Water, Southwest floods — 6 Nov
• NOAA SWPC 3-day forecast — 12:30 UTC, 7 Nov