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Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: 7-Day Major Cyclone Outlook

By Paul Harrison | Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Weekly Tropical Storm Tracker: Tuesday, November 3, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Two cyclones crossed India’s Andhra Pradesh coast in one week. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Arnab came ashore near Yanam on October 28, and Severe Cyclonic Storm Murasu crossed near Ongole early on November 3. In the Western Pacific, Typhoon In-fa’s eye passed over the remote island of Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands on October 30. The Atlantic had no storms all week.

Murasu is weakening inland over Andhra Pradesh, with heavy rain forecast there and in Telangana through November 4. In-fa is forecast to pass near Japan’s Ogasawara Islands on November 5. This report reviews Tuesday, October 27, to Monday, November 2, 2026, and looks ahead to Tuesday, November 3, to Monday, November 9. It is current to 7:20 a.m. EST (12:20 UTC) on Tuesday, November 3.

National weather services and local authorities issue the official warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active systems now

Two tropical cyclones are active, both weakening, and two disturbances are being watched. No tropical cyclone is active in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific or Southern Hemisphere.

System

Basin

Latest position

Winds (agency, averaging)

Movement

Issue time

Threat to land

Murasu (JTWC 04B)

North Indian Ocean

15.7N 80.2E, about 30 km (19 miles) NNE of Ongole

Severe Cyclonic Storm (IMD); JTWC 65 kt (75 mph), 1-min, final warning

NNW at 8 km/h (5 mph) (IMD)

IMD 8:30 a.m. IST Nov 3; JTWC 0900 UTC Nov 3 (final warning)

Over land in Andhra Pradesh; heavy rain

In-fa (JMA 2631, JTWC 30W)

Western Pacific

23.1N 138.9E, south of the Ogasawara Islands (JMA)

JMA 60 kt (69 mph), 10-min, 975 hPa; JTWC 65 kt (75 mph), 1-min

West, slowly (JMA)

JMA 3 p.m. JST Nov 3; JTWC 1500 UTC Nov 2

Near the Ogasawara Islands Nov 5 (JMA forecast)

Low east-southeast of Hawaii

Eastern/Central Pacific

Near 9N 131W (NHC, 2205 UTC Nov 2)

Disturbance

W to WNW at 10 to 15 mph

NHC 4 p.m. PST Nov 2

None stated by NHC

Low northeast of the Bahamas

Atlantic

Expected to form a few hundred miles NE of the Bahamas

Disturbance

Drifting, then E or NE

NHC 1 a.m. EST Nov 3

Gales over open water north of 29N

The week in review

Four tropical cyclones were active between October 27 and November 2, and three of them brought wind, rain or surf to land. Arnab is the only one with reported deaths.

Storm

Basin

Dates (2026)

Peak intensity (agency, averaging)

Landfall

Reported toll (source, date)

Arnab

North Indian Ocean

Oct 24–30

IMD 155 km/h (96 mph), 3-min, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm; JTWC 220 km/h (137 mph), 1-min

Andhra Pradesh, near Yanam, night of Oct 27–28

7 dead in Andhra Pradesh (Kathmandu Post, Oct 29); at least 15 dead and about 12 missing in a later compilation (Wikipedia, about Nov 2), preliminary

Murasu

North Indian Ocean

Oct 31–active

Severe Cyclonic Storm (IMD); JTWC 65 kt (75 mph), 1-min

Andhra Pradesh, near Ongole, early Nov 3 IST

No deaths reported (ETV Bharat, Nov 3)

In-fa

Western Pacific

Oct 23–active

JMA 90 to 100 kt (104 to 115 mph), 10-min, 940 to 945 hPa (via Weathernews); JTWC 140 mph, 1-min, Category 4 equivalent

Eye over Agrihan, Northern Mariana Islands, evening of Oct 30 ChST

No casualties or damage reported

Vance

Eastern Pacific

Oct 21–30

NHC 115 mph (100 kt), 1-min, Category 3, on Oct 23

None; remnants off Sinaloa, Mexico

No deaths; two people rescued in Mazatlán (UnoTV, Oct 30)

The biggest stories

Murasu: second Andhra Pradesh landfall in a week

Murasu crossed the south Andhra Pradesh coast close to Ongole between 3:30 and 5:30 a.m. IST on November 3, according to IMD as reported by DownToEarth (Nov 3). JTWC put landfall at about 0200 UTC (7:30 a.m. IST), just northeast of Ongole, in its final warning at 0900 UTC. IMD gave landfall winds of 95 to 105 km/h (59 to 65 mph), gusting to 115 km/h (71 mph), per ETV Bharat (Nov 3). JTWC’s 1-minute estimate was 65 kt (75 mph).

IMD’s November 2 press release (1 p.m. IST) warned of a 1.5 to 2.0 m (5 to 6.5 ft) storm surge in Bapatla, Krishna and Prakasam districts. It forecast isolated extremely heavy rain in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema, and in Telangana on November 3. IMD expects Murasu to weaken to a Deep Depression by midnight November 3–4. DownToEarth reported uprooted trees, damage to houses and crops in Bapatla and Prakasam, and disrupted flights and trains. No deaths had been reported by the morning of November 3.

Arnab: the deadliest storm of the week

Arnab intensified rapidly on October 26 and peaked on October 27. It crossed the coast southwest of Yanam on the night of October 27–28. Al Jazeera (Oct 28, updated Oct 29) reported at least 3 deaths, citing the NDRF, and at least 180 houses destroyed, citing the state chief minister. By October 29 the Kathmandu Post reported 7 deaths in Andhra Pradesh. A Wikipedia compilation of local reports, current to about November 2, lists at least 15 deaths, including landslide victims in Odisha’s Kandhamal and Ganjam districts, with about 12 people missing. These totals are preliminary.

In-fa: eye over Agrihan, now near the Ogasawara Islands

In-fa’s eye passed over Agrihan in the northern Mariana Islands on the evening of October 30 (ChST) as a Category 4 typhoon, according to an NWS Guam statement cited by EM Network (Oct 30). A typhoon warning covered Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan, with high-surf warnings for Saipan and Tinian (RNZ via Scoop, Oct 29). AccuWeather (updated Oct 30) called it the fifth typhoon to affect the Marianas this year. No casualties or damage have been reported from the sparsely populated islands.

The agencies now differ on its strength. At 3 p.m. JST on November 3, JMA classed it a severe tropical storm with 10-minute winds of 60 kt (69 mph) and 975 hPa. JTWC’s last available warning, issued at 1500 UTC November 2, had a typhoon with 1-minute winds of 65 kt (75 mph). JMA’s forecast position for 3 p.m. JST November 5 (29.6N 140.8E) lies near the Ogasawara Islands. JMA then forecasts a fast turn northeast and an extratropical low by November 7. JTWC expects extratropical transition by 1200 UTC November 5.

Vance: remnants soak Sinaloa

Vance stayed offshore and dissipated on October 29–30. NHC’s final advisory (8 p.m. MST October 29) placed the remnants about 190 miles south-southwest of Mazatlán with 30 mph winds. Its moisture still caused flooding. UnoTV(Oct 30) reported flooded Mazatlán neighborhoods, waves over 3 m (10 ft), two people rescued by the Army and six families sheltered. Sinaloa suspended afternoon classes on October 29 (El Congresista, Oct 29).

Quiet basins. The Atlantic had no storm all week; its last, Subtropical Storm Josephine, ended October 22. The Central Pacific’s Tropical Storm Olana ended October 26. The Southern Hemisphere had no systems: the Australian season began November 1, and the South-West Indian Ocean season starts November 15.

Season to date

The Eastern and Western Pacific seasons have already passed a full average year, while the Atlantic is well short of one.

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The Eastern Pacific has produced 10 major hurricanes, more than double the 1991–2020 average of 4; counting Central Pacific storms, the total reaches 24 named storms, 13 hurricanes and 11 majors. NHC lists the Atlantic at 3 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes below normal for the date. North Indian Ocean counts are not yet confirmed by IMD; Wikipedia’s season page listed eight depressions but no cyclonic storms before Arnab, which would make Arnab and Murasu the season’s first two.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s October 8 discussion keeps an El Niño Advisory in effect and expects a strong to very strong El Niño through January–March 2027. The next update is due November 12.

What to watch this week

The main risks this week are Murasu’s rain in southern India and In-fa’s pass near the Ogasawara Islands. NHC gives a Central Pacific disturbance a high chance of becoming a depression.

When

What

Issued by

Tue Nov 3 to Wed Nov 4

Murasu weakens to a Deep Depression by midnight Nov 3–4; heavy rain in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Telangana

IMD

Wed Nov 4 to Thu Nov 5

Low northeast of the Bahamas: 10% in 48 hours, 30% in 7 days; gales likely north of 29N Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening

NHC (1 a.m. EST Nov 3)

Thu Nov 5

In-fa near the Ogasawara Islands, then turning northeast; extratropical by Nov 7 (JMA) or Nov 5 (JTWC)

JMA, JTWC

Mid to late week

Low east-southeast of Hawaii: 30% in 48 hours, 70% in 7 days; a depression is likely as it moves west to west-northwest

NHC/CPHC (4 p.m. PST / 2 p.m. HST Nov 2)

About this report

This weekly overview draws on the official agencies for each basin: NHC and CPHC (US), JMA (Japan), JTWC (US Navy and Air Force), IMD (India) and PAGASA (Philippines), plus news reports for impacts. Wind figures differ partly because agencies average over different periods: NHC and JTWC use 1-minute winds, JMA uses 10-minute winds and IMD uses 3-minute winds, so a 1-minute figure reads higher for the same storm. Times are given in each agency’s own zone. Advisories are updated every few hours, and casualty figures often change as assessments continue.

Term

Meaning

Saffir-Simpson Category 3

Major hurricane: 1-minute winds of 111 to 129 mph

Severe Tropical Storm (JMA)

10-minute winds of 48 to 63 kt (55 to 72 mph)

Severe Cyclonic Storm (IMD)

3-minute winds of 48 to 63 kt, or 89 to 117 km/h (55 to 73 mph)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (IMD)

3-minute winds of 64 to 89 kt, or 119 to 165 km/h (74 to 103 mph)

Extratropical

A storm that has lost its tropical structure and is driven by temperature contrasts, as many recurving typhoons do

Frequently asked questions

Is the Atlantic hurricane season over? Not officially; it runs through November 30. NHC is watching a low northeast of the Bahamas, but gives it only a low chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Its chances end by the weekend as it moves into unfavorable conditions.

Will In-fa hit mainland Japan? Neither JMA nor JTWC forecasts a track over mainland Japan. Both take it near the Ogasawara Islands around November 5, then northeast over the open Pacific, where it becomes an extratropical low.

Why did two cyclones hit the same Indian coast in one week? The Bay of Bengal’s post-monsoon season is one of the basin’s two peak periods, with activity peaking in May and November. Arnab and Murasu both formed in the Bay and tracked northwest into Andhra Pradesh within six days of each other.

Is Hawaii at risk from the Central Pacific disturbance? NHC has not said the system threatens Hawaii. It is far east-southeast of the islands and moving west to west-northwest. Residents should follow CPHC and the National Weather Service in Honolulu as the week goes on.

Why do JTWC and JMA give different winds for In-fa? JTWC reports 1-minute sustained winds and JMA reports 10-minute averages, which are lower for the same storm. The two agencies also analyze at different times and can judge intensity differently.

Sources

Atlantic

Eastern and Central Pacific

Western Pacific

North Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere, ENSO and reference

Sources & Methodology
Weekly Global Weather Watch is compiled by Orbis Weather using information from official national and international meteorological agencies, including NOAA, the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization and relevant national weather agencies worldwide.

Orbis Weather reviews these official observations, forecasts, warnings and outlooks to identify the most significant global weather patterns and hazards for the week ahead. Forecast conditions can change as new observations and model guidance become available.

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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