Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Weather Update: Tuesday, November 3, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

At a glance

No tropical cyclones are active in the eastern or central North Pacific, but a broad low well east-southeast of Hawaii has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week.

Current to 6:47 a.m. EST (1:47 a.m. HST, 11:47 UTC) Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Uses the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook issued 10:00 p.m. PST Monday, November 2, and the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion issued early Tuesday, November 3 (UTC). The newest CPHC outlook text available was issued 2:00 a.m. HST Monday, November 2.

• Active storms: none in either basin, according to the National Hurricane Center.
• Threat to land: no tropical cyclone watches or warnings are in effect for Mexico, Central America, Baja California or Hawaii.
• Disturbance: the low well southeast of Hawaii has a 30% chance of forming in 48 hours and 70% in 7 days. NHC says it is moving “westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph” [16 to 24 km/h] over the Central Pacific basin.
• Season: the eastern Pacific has had 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 8 major hurricanes, well above the average to this date. The season ends November 30.

The National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and national weather services, including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

There are no active tropical or subtropical cyclones or potential tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific (east of 140°W) or the central North Pacific (140°W to 180°), according to the NHC home page updated 08:20 UTC Tuesday, November 3. No storm is threatening land today, so this report has no storm-threat section.

Disturbances to watch

One area is being monitored, and NHC expects it to become a tropical depression “during the middle to latter portions of this week.”

NHC says the low is producing “disorganized showers and thunderstorms” and that environmental conditions “appear generally favorable for gradual development.” The earlier CPHC outlook (2:00 a.m. HST Monday) gave 20% and 70%.

The Tropical Weather Discussion places a 1010 mb low on the monsoon trough near 9°N 134°W, with fresh east winds and scattered thunderstorms north of its center. It says the monsoon trough runs from 9°N 84°W to beyond 9°N 140°W, and lists no tropical waves. Large northwest swell is producing seas near 13 ft [4 m] near 30°N 140°W, and fresh northwest winds cover the Gulf of California, with seas of 3 to 6 ft [0.9 to 1.8 m].

Season so far

Both basins are running well above normal in 2026, with the central Pacific especially busy.

Counts come from NHC’s 2026 season summaries; the to-date average is read from NHC’s table of when each storm normally forms. NHC’s central Pacific table includes storms that crossed from east of 140°W; three formed there (Lala, Moke and Olana). The most recent named storms were Vance in the eastern Pacific (Oct. 21-29) and Olana in the central Pacific (Oct. 25-26). NHC lists no direct deaths in either basin’s summary.

ENSO: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect. Its October 8 discussion says “a strong-to-very strong El Niño” is likely through January-March 2027. NHC’s climatology page notes that moderate to strong El Niño years are linked to more central Pacific activity and late-season storms.

What to watch next

• The low southeast of Hawaii: whether its formation odds rise in the next NHC and CPHC Tropical Weather Outlooks, and whether advisories begin midweek or later.
• Who issues advisories: NHC would handle a depression east of 140°W; CPHC in Honolulu takes over once a system is west of 140°W.
• Hawaii: NWS Honolulu would issue any local watches, warnings or surf advisories if the system heads toward the islands.
• Baja California swell: the NHC discussion expects large northwest swell north of Cabo San Lázaro through Thursday, with new swell from Thursday night.
• ENSO update: the Climate Prediction Center’s next ENSO discussion is scheduled for November 12.

About this report

This daily update covers two basins: the eastern North Pacific east of 140°W, monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, and the central North Pacific from 140°W to the International Date Line, monitored by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu. It draws on NHC and CPHC outlooks and discussions, NHC season summaries and climatology, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Product times are given in the zone each agency uses: PST for NHC Pacific outlooks, HST for CPHC, and UTC for the Tropical Weather Discussion. It is a summary, not a warning service; the newest official products replace any figure here.

Glossary

• Tropical depression: an organized tropical cyclone with sustained winds below 39 mph [63 km/h]; it is named once winds reach that speed.
• Formation chance: NHC’s probability that a disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone within 48 hours or 7 days.
• Monsoon trough: a band of low pressure and thunderstorms in the tropics where many eastern Pacific storms form.
• Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): a measure of a season’s combined storm strength and duration.
• El Niño: a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns worldwide.

Frequently asked questions

Is any storm threatening Mexico or Hawaii today? No. There are no active tropical cyclones in either basin and no tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Could the low southeast of Hawaii become a storm? NHC gives it a 70% chance of forming within 7 days and says a depression is likely this week. It is forecast to move west to west-northwest over the Central Pacific basin. The official outlooks do not yet give a track toward any island.

Is the Pacific hurricane season over? No. Both the eastern and central Pacific seasons officially run through November 30. NHC’s climatology links strong El Niño years, like this one, to late-season central Pacific storms.

How busy has 2026 been? Very busy. The eastern Pacific has six more named storms and four more major hurricanes than average to this date, and NHC puts central Pacific storm energy at more than four times normal.

Sources

• NHC home page, updated 08:20 UTC Nov. 3, 2026
• NHC Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, issued 10:00 p.m. PST Nov. 2, 2026
• NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, eastern Pacific, 4:00 p.m. PST Nov. 2, 2026
• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion, issued Nov. 3, 2026 (printed 1005 UTC)
• CPHC Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, issued 2:00 a.m. HST Nov. 2, 2026
• NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, central Pacific, 2:00 p.m. HST Nov. 2, 2026
• NWS Honolulu, map updated 3:08 p.m. HST Nov. 2, 2026
• NHC 2026 eastern Pacific season summary, as of 09 UTC Nov. 2, 2026
• NHC 2026 central Pacific season summary, as of 09 UTC Nov. 2, 2026
• NHC tropical cyclone climatology, 1991-2020 eastern Pacific averages
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued Oct. 8, 2026