Weekly Earth Watch: Volcanoes, Earthquakes & Natural Hazards – Week ending October 18, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather · Oct 18, 2026

At a glance

The week’s largest earthquake, a deep magnitude 6.9 under Kamchatka on October 16, caused no reported damage, while a magnitude 5.7 in Pakistan killed one person. Panama recorded the first death from its October 9 earthquake, and Super Typhoon Champi passed about 10 miles south of Guam without making landfall. This edition covers Monday, October 12 to Sunday, October 18, 2026, with data to about 11:30 UTC on October 18.

• Earthquakes: 9 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater and 100 of magnitude 4.5 or greater. Largest: M6.9 at 135 km depth, 76 km NE of Ozernovskiy, Kamchatka (USGS). Deadliest: M5.7 near Khuzdar, Pakistan (1 killed by a falling rock, Dawn). Panama: 1 official death, 1,952 homes with total damage, more than 800 aftershocks reported.
• Tsunami: no warnings, advisories or watches. Tsunami information statements only, for the Kamchatka and Mid-Atlantic Ridge earthquakes; no threat.
• Volcanoes: the Smithsonian/USGS report for October 8–14 lists 27 volcanoes (4 new, 23 continuing). Krakatau stays at Level III after its October 9 raise. Kilauea’s episode 55 lasted about 6 hours on October 17, after which the alert was lowered to ADVISORY/YELLOW. Japan lowered Tokachidake from Level 3 to Level 2.
• Storms: Super Typhoon Champi near 150 mph, heading west into the Philippine Sea after passing Guam. Hurricane Trudy at 105 mph off southwest Mexico. Cyclone Wati near the southern Cook Islands.
• Other hazards: Istanbul’s worst floods since records began in 1942 (5 dead reported); deadly floods in Tripoli, Libya, and Rhodes, Greece; 4 killed fighting a wildfire in East Java. Space weather: no geomagnetic storms expected.

Products used: USGS earthquake catalogue queried 11:28 UTC October 18; Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for October 8–14; USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory notices of October 17; tsunami.gov status read October 18; NHC Trudy Advisory 20 (09:00 UTC October 18); JTWC Champi Warning 15 (03:00 UTC October 18); GDACS feed of 05:45 UTC October 18; NOAA SWPC 3-day forecast of 12:30 UTC October 17.

Volcanoes

No major new eruption began this week, but several volcanoes changed status. The Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for October 8–14 lists 27 volcanoes: 4 with new eruptive activity and 23 with continuing activity. Since that report, Kilauea’s alert has been lowered, Japan has lowered Tokachidake, and Anak Krakatau and Semeru have kept erupting.

New activity and unrest

Volcanoes to watch

Kilauea, Hawaii. Kilauea’s lava fountaining has paused after a short, strong episode. Episode 55 began at 3:19 a.m. HST on October 17 and “ended abruptly at 9:03 a.m. HST”, according to the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. The north vent fountain reached 720 ft (220 m) and the plume about 25,000 ft above sea level. At 9:59 a.m. HST, HVO lowered the alert level from WATCH to ADVISORY and the aviation colour code from ORANGE to YELLOW. Its aviation notice said “FOUNTAIN ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.” All activity was confined to Halemaʻumaʻu crater inside Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.

Taal, Philippines. Taal has stayed at Alert Level 1 with no new eruption since its minor phreatomagmatic eruption at 18:06 on October 8. That event sent an ash plume 4 km above the crater rim, and at least 120 people (32 families) moved to evacuation centres, per the Smithsonian report. Sulfur dioxide output dropped to 223 tonnes on October 15, then 407 tonnes by October 17, with 22 volcanic earthquakes in 24 hours (Inquirer). PHIVOLCS said Level 1 “does not mean the volcano has returned to normal.” Taal Volcano Island remains a Permanent Danger Zone.

Anak Krakatau, Indonesia. Anak Krakatau remains at Level III (Alert), raised on October 9 after at least 13 eruptions in a day (Bernama via Malay Mail). Another eruption followed at 01:35 WIB on October 17 (Katadata). People must stay outside 5 km of the crater and 1 km from two newly formed islands.

Other notes: Kanlaon (Philippines) remains at Alert Level 2 after a moderately explosive eruption on October 10 that sent ash 5–6 km above the summit; on October 17 it emitted 1,605 tonnes of sulfur dioxide (Philstar, October 18). Ambrym (Vanuatu) remains at Volcanic Alert Level 3 under VMGD’s October 8 bulletin, with no newer bulletin found. In every case, national volcano agencies and local authorities are the authority on exclusion zones; evacuation orders should be followed immediately.

Continuing eruptions (Smithsonian report, October 8–14)

Earthquakes

The week was moderately active, with no earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater. The largest, a magnitude 6.9 deep beneath southern Kamchatka, was widely felt but caused no reported damage. The only reported death came from a smaller magnitude 5.7 earthquake in Balochistan, Pakistan. In Panama, recovery from the October 9 magnitude 7.7 earthquake continued amid hundreds of aftershocks.

Largest: M6.9 Kamchatka, Russia, October 16

Cause. The earthquake struck at about 135 km (84 mi) depth, well below the surface. USGS had not published a tectonic summary for the event at the time of writing.

Confirmed impacts. No damage or casualties were reported. Russia’s regional emergencies ministry (MChS) said no calls came in from citizens and that “Угроза цунами не объявлялась” (no tsunami threat was declared), per Interfax and Pogoda Mail on October 16. Shaking of up to 4 points was felt in Ust-Kamchatsky district, about 590 km away.

Japan false alarm. The earthquake triggered a false magnitude 9.9 earthquake early warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency at 12:40 JST, covering Hokkaido to Chubu including Tokyo. It was withdrawn at 12:48 JST. It briefly halted Tokaido Shinkansen trains between Shin-Yokohama and Toyohashi, and JMA apologised (The Watchers, October 16).

Model versus reports. PAGER gave a 90% chance of 0–1 deaths. The reported outcome, no casualties, is consistent with that estimate.

Ranking. By Orbis Weather’s count from the USGS catalogue, 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater have struck worldwide in 2026 so far. This M6.9 is smaller than all of them, and it is the largest of this week.

Deadliest: M5.7 Khuzdar, Pakistan, October 17

One person died after a magnitude 5.7 (USGS) struck 48 km (30 mi) WNW of Khuzdar, Balochistan, at 05:06 UTC Saturday, October 17 (about 10:07 local time). The Pakistan Meteorological Department measured M5.9 at 25 km depth; USGS gave a depth of 10 km. Dawn reported on October 18 that Abdul Rahim of Wadh was killed when a large rock fell from a mountain in the Naal area, and that several mud houses were damaged. These figures are preliminary.

USGS PAGER issued a Yellow alert. It estimated a 50% chance of 0–1 deaths and a 32% chance of 1–10, with about 3,600 people exposed to intensity VII shaking and 35,100 to intensity VI. No statement from Pakistan’s disaster management authorities was found by the time of writing.

Panama: aftershocks and first death

Panama’s October 9 earthquake has now been linked to one death, and aftershocks continue. USGS rates it M7.7 (Mww) at 12.6 km depth; Panama’s Instituto de Geociencias (IGC) gives M7.5. On Monday, October 12 at 23:20 UTC (18:20 local), an M6.1 (USGS; IGC M6.4) struck 17 km W of Río Grande. IGC classed it as an aftershock, and initial reports showed no new victims or damage.

The national emergency declared on October 10 allows up to US$100 million in spending. IGC director Néstor Luque said aftershock activity could last one to two months. Figures differ between sources and remain preliminary. USGS PAGER for the main shock is Orange for economic losses and Yellow for fatalities; the single reported death is at the low end of that model’s range. Residents should follow SINAPROC and local authority guidance, including any evacuation orders.

All earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater, October 12–18

*Listed as 6.8 in the catalogue query; the USGS event page gives 6.9. Source: USGS catalogue query, queried 11:28 UTC October 18. The catalogue holds 100 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater for the same period.

Other notable earthquakes

Two strong, shallow earthquakes struck the remote central Mid-Atlantic Ridge on October 13, about 6 hours 40 minutes apart. Neither posed a tsunami threat to Caribbean coasts (The Watchers). The M5.6 in central Alaska on October 15 drew 106 “felt” reports to USGS; no damage reports were found.

Tsunami

No tsunami warnings, advisories or watches were issued this week, and no tsunami effects or evacuations were reported. Warning centres issued information statements only, which confirm an earthquake was assessed and found not to pose a threat.

Current status. At the time of writing, tsunami.gov showed “No Tsunami Warning, Advisory, Watch, or Threat in effect.” The Pacific and National Tsunami Warning Centers and national agencies are the authority for any future alert; evacuation orders should be followed immediately.

Other natural hazards

Super Typhoon Champi was the week’s most serious weather threat, but it passed just south of Guam without landfall and early reports found no widespread significant damage. Floods killed people in Istanbul, Tripoli and Rhodes, and a wildfire killed four in East Java. Orbis Weather’s daily tropical reports and Friday “Global Natural Disasters This Week” cover these hazards in more depth.

Champi and Guam. Champi’s eye, about 5 miles wide, passed roughly 10 miles south of Guam’s southern tip at about 4:26 a.m. local time on October 18 (18:26 UTC October 17). Airport gusts reached 80–85 mph, and preliminary reports found “no widespread significant damage” (PostGuam). Power fell to about 50% of the island by 7:50 a.m., and the US President approved an emergency declaration (Guam Homeland Security, 10:00 a.m. October 18). Guam Memorial Hospital reported 3 storm-related visits, with no deaths reported. Southern Guam has not yet been fully assessed. JTWC forecasts Champi to track west-northwest across the Philippine Sea, reaching about 21.8N 124.1E by 00 UTC October 23.

Trudy and Mexico. Trudy is expected to stay offshore, but it can bring 4–8 inches of rain to Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, locally 12 inches, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible (NHC). No deaths had been reported from Trudy by the time of writing.

Wati and the Cook Islands. Wati formed before the official season start of November 1 (WeatherWatch). Aitutaki opened an emergency headquarters, and no damage or injuries had been reported by October 18 (PMN News).

Floods. Istanbul’s death toll has risen with each report, from 2 (Euronews, October 15) to 4 (AP, October 16) to 5 with 4 missing (TodayPress, October 17); these figures are preliminary. In Tripoli, authorities declared a disaster area in Souq al-Jumaa. On Rhodes, a 62-year-old man died when his car was swept toward the sea at Stegna.

Elsewhere. NHC gives a storm-force non-tropical low off the US Southeast coast a 30% chance of subtropical development within 7 days, and an area south of Mexico an 80% chance. JTWC rates Invest 96A in the Arabian Sea low for development within 24 hours. Wherever storms or floods threaten, national meteorological agencies and local authorities are the authority on what to do, and evacuation orders should be followed immediately.

What to watch next week

The main items to follow are Super Typhoon Champi’s path across the Philippine Sea, Panama’s aftershock sequence and recovery, and Indonesian and Philippine volcanoes at raised alert levels.

What could change the picture:

• A shift in Champi’s track toward the northern Philippines or Taiwan, which national weather agencies would address in their bulletins.
• A strong aftershock in Panama affecting already damaged homes.
• New explosive activity at Anak Krakatau or Taal, or a change in alert levels.
• A resumption of lava fountaining at Kilauea, which HVO currently considers unlikely for several weeks.
• Further rises in reported flood tolls in Istanbul as missing people are accounted for.

About this report

Weekly Earth Watch summarises official monitoring products and verified news reports for the past seven days. It does not replace warnings from national agencies, which remain the authority on what to do.

Who issues what

Scales used in this edition

Glossary

Times and limits

Earthquake and bulletin times are in UTC; local times are added where useful. Guam is UTC+10, Kamchatka UTC+12, Pakistan UTC+5 and Panama UTC−5. Casualty and damage figures are preliminary and often revised. The Smithsonian report covers October 8–14 only; later volcano news comes from national agencies and media. USGS magnitudes and locations can be revised after review.

Frequently asked questions

What was the biggest earthquake this week? A magnitude 6.9 beneath southern Kamchatka, Russia, at 03:35 UTC on October 16. It struck about 135 km (84 mi) deep, and shaking reached about 5 points in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. No damage or injuries were reported.

Did the Kamchatka earthquake cause a tsunami? No. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said there was no tsunami threat, and Russia’s emergencies ministry declared none.

Why did Japan issue an M9.9 earthquake warning? JMA’s early warning system wrongly estimated the Kamchatka earthquake as magnitude 9.9 and sent an alert at 12:40 JST on October 16. It was withdrawn eight minutes later, and JMA apologised.

Did anyone die in an earthquake this week? Yes. One person was killed by a falling rock after the magnitude 5.7 near Khuzdar, Pakistan, on October 17 (Dawn). In Panama, a 68-year-old woman injured in the October 9 earthquake died on October 14, the first official death from that event.

Are the Panama aftershocks dangerous? The Instituto de Geociencias had counted 746 aftershocks by October 16, including an M6.1 (USGS) on October 12. Its director expects activity for one to two months. Damaged buildings can be weakened further, so residents should follow SINAPROC guidance.

Is Kilauea still erupting? The eruption is paused. Episode 55 lasted about six hours on October 17, and USGS then lowered the alert to ADVISORY/YELLOW, saying fountaining was unlikely for several weeks.

Is Taal about to erupt again? PHIVOLCS keeps Taal at Alert Level 1 after a five-minute eruption on October 8. It reports continuing volcanic earthquakes and says Level 1 does not mean the volcano has returned to normal. No one can predict eruptions; follow PHIVOLCS and local officials.

How badly was Guam hit by Super Typhoon Champi? Champi passed about 10 miles south of Guam early on October 18 without landfall. Early reports found no widespread significant damage, but power was cut to about half the island and southern Guam was still being assessed.

Will there be auroras this week? Unlikely at low latitudes. NOAA expects a maximum Kp of 2.67 through October 19, below storm levels.