Eastern & Central Pacific Tropical Weather Update: Thursday, October 29, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

At a glance

A weakening Tropical Storm Vance is bringing a flood and mudslide threat to western Mexico, while a low could form well southeast of Hawaii this weekend or early next week.

This report is current to 6:55 AM EDT (12:55 AM HST, 10:55 UTC) on Thursday, October 29, 2026. It uses NHC Advisory 32 on Vance (2:00 AM MST, 09:00 UTC), the NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook of 11:00 PM PDT Wednesday (06:00 UTC Thursday), the CPHC Central Pacific Outlook of 8:00 PM HST Wednesday (06:00 UTC Thursday) and the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion of 10:05 UTC Thursday.

• Vance: a 40 mph [65 km/h] tropical storm about 180 miles [290 km] west-northwest of Cabo Corrientes. NHC expects it to become a post-tropical remnant low late today and dissipate Friday.
• Threat to land: no coastal watches or warnings are in effect, but NHC warns of rain that “may produce flooding and mudslides” in Sinaloa, southwestern Durango and northwestern Nayarit.
• Disturbance: one area, well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, has a near 0 percent chance of formation in 48 hours and 30 percent in 7 days.
• Central Pacific: no active tropical cyclones.
• Season: the eastern Pacific is well above the 1991-2020 average to date for named storms and major hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and national weather services, including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

One tropical cyclone is active across the two basins: Tropical Storm Vance off western Mexico. The central Pacific has no active cyclones.

Source: NHC Public Advisory 32 and Forecast Advisory 32. NHC says tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 80 miles [130 km] from the center.

Storms threatening land

Tropical Storm Vance: heavy rain for western Mexico

Rain, not wind, is the main hazard from Vance. NHC’s 2:00 AM MST discussion says “the main threat with Vance is the very heavy rainfall and high rain rates” near the Islas Marías and southwestern Mexico.

Forecast track and strength (NHC, 2:00 AM MST). Vance is moving north-northeast and should turn north and slow over the next 24 hours. NHC says “extremely strong vertical shear” should strip away its thunderstorms later today “and cause weakening before the winds could impact Mexico.” The system may stay “just offshore of Mexico” before it degenerates into a trough on Friday. NHC’s forecast point for 11:00 PM MST tonight (06:00 UTC Friday), 23.4°N 108.2°W, lies at the entrance to the Gulf of California, read from the coordinates.

Rain (NHC). Through Thursday, 2 to 4 inches [51 to 102 mm] across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated totals of 7 inches [178 mm] possible over central and southern Sinaloa. NHC says this rain “may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.”

SMN forecast (as reported October 28). El Financiero and El Imparcial reported SMN forecasts of 75 to 150 mm [3 to 6 in] for southern Sinaloa, northern Nayarit and southern Durango. They also reported waves of 1 to 2 m [3 to 7 ft] along the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit and Colima, and gusts of 30 to 50 km/h [19 to 31 mph] on the Sinaloa and Nayarit coasts.

Surf (NHC). Swells will affect southwestern and west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula over the next couple of days. They “are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

Recent impacts. Reports through October 28 described rain but no deaths, injuries or evacuations. Los Noticieristas reported on October 28 that Mazatlán had recorded rain, citing Roy Navarrete Cuevas, director of Sinaloa’s state civil protection institute. He said up to 150 mm [6 in] was expected in the state. Rain also fell in Culiacán and Navolato, the outlet said. Sinaloa’s civil protection agency said the chance of rain stays high until Friday, October 30.

Background. NHC’s season list shows Vance reached major hurricane strength, with peak winds of 100 knots [115 mph, 185 km/h]. The Associated Press reported on October 25 that it had weakened to a tropical storm off Mexico’s Pacific coast.

The next NHC advisory, at 8:00 AM MST (15:00 UTC), replaces these figures.

Disturbances to watch

One area is being monitored, and both hurricane centers give it a low chance of development within seven days.

Both outlooks say the low “could develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this weekend or early next week.” Conditions then appear “generally favorable for some slow development” as it moves west to west-northwest into the central Pacific.

NHC’s 10:05 UTC Tropical Weather Discussion lists no tropical waves. It places the monsoon trough from 6°N 77°W to 3°N 94°W to 6°N 120°W and beyond 6°N 140°W. Fresh to near-gale northerly winds blow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and are forecast to pulse to fresh to strong over the next several days, mainly overnight and early morning.

Season so far

The 2026 eastern Pacific season is running well ahead of normal, with twice the usual number of major hurricanes for late October.

The 2026 counts come from NHC’s eastern Pacific and central Pacific season summaries. The averages come from NHC climatology: on average the 14th named storm forms by October 15, the 8th hurricane by October 23 and the 4th major hurricane by October 22. NHC lists accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 245.3 east of 140°W (shown as +131 percent against normal) and 108.3 in the central Pacific. Its season summaries list no deaths or US damage in either basin. NHC’s climatology page gives no 1991-2020 central Pacific average.

ENSO: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its October 8 discussion, kept an El Niño Advisory in place and said “a strong-to-very strong El Niño” is likely through January-March 2027. NHC climatology notes that moderate to strong El Niño years are correlated with more central Pacific tropical cyclones and late-season storms.

What to watch next

• Vance’s next advisory: NHC issues Advisory 33 at 8:00 AM MST (15:00 UTC) today. NHC expects Vance to become a remnant low late today; check whether advisories end.
• Rain in Sinaloa, Durango and Nayarit: SMN and state civil protection agencies issue local alerts; Sinaloa expects a high chance of rain until Friday, October 30.
• The low southeast of Hawaii: NHC’s Eastern Pacific Outlook and CPHC’s Central Pacific Outlook will update its formation chances; the low would move into CPHC’s area.
• Large northwest swell: NHC’s discussion says rough to very rough northwest swell may reach the far northwest waters early next week, highest near 30°N 140°W.
• ENSO update: the Climate Prediction Center’s next ENSO discussion is scheduled for November 12, 2026.

About this report

This daily update summarizes official products for two basins. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami covers the eastern North Pacific east of 140°W. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu covers 140°W to the International Date Line. Storm times follow each advisory’s zone: Vance’s advisories use Mountain Standard Time (MST, UTC-7), NHC’s outlook uses Pacific Daylight Time (PDT, UTC-7) and CPHC uses Hawaii Standard Time (HST, UTC-10). Figures are as of the issue times stated above and change with each new product. The report does not replace official forecasts or local warnings.

Frequently asked questions

Will Vance make landfall in Mexico? NHC does not forecast a landfall. It expects strong shear to weaken Vance before its winds could reach Mexico, and the system may stay just offshore before dissipating Friday. Heavy rain over land remains the main risk.

Which areas could flood? NHC names central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango and far northwestern Nayarit, especially steep terrain where mudslides are possible. Local alerts come from SMN and state civil protection agencies.

Is Hawaii under any tropical threat? CPHC reports no active tropical cyclones in the central Pacific. A low could form well southeast of the islands this weekend or early next week, with a 30 percent chance of development in seven days.

When does the season end? NHC climatology says the eastern Pacific season runs from May 15 to November 30. It also says moderate to strong El Niño years are correlated with late-season storms in the central Pacific.

Sources

• NHC home page, updated 10:30 UTC Thu Oct 29, 2026
• NHC Tropical Storm Vance Public Advisory 32, 2:00 AM MST Thu Oct 29, 2026
• NHC Tropical Storm Vance Forecast Advisory 32, 09:00 UTC Thu Oct 29, 2026
• NHC Tropical Storm Vance Discussion 32, 2:00 AM MST Thu Oct 29, 2026
• NHC Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 11:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 28, 2026
• CPHC Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, 8:00 PM HST Wed Oct 28, 2026
• NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion, 10:05 UTC Thu Oct 29, 2026
• NHC 2026 eastern Pacific season summary, as of 03 UTC Oct 26, 2026
• NHC 2026 central Pacific season summary, as of 21 UTC Oct 25, 2026
• NHC climatology, 1991-2020 averages
• NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion, October 8, 2026
• Los Noticieristas: Vance se degrada a depresión tropical, October 28, 2026
• El Financiero: Tormenta tropical Vance se acerca a México, October 28, 2026
• El Imparcial: SMN alerta por lluvias intensas, October 28, 2026
• Associated Press via ClickOrlando: Vance no longer a hurricane, October 25, 2026