Tropical Atlantic Daily Report: Thursday, October 29, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 6:47 AM EDT (10:47 UTC), Thursday, October 29, 2026. NHC products used: Tropical Weather Outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) and Tropical Weather Discussion transmitted 10:42 UTC (labeled 12:15 UTC), both October 29.

At a glance

The Atlantic basin is quiet: no tropical cyclones are active, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not expect any to form in the next seven days.

• Active storms: none in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico as of NHC’s 10:30 UTC update.
• Threats to land: no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings are in effect. Non-tropical gales north of the Bahamas were forecast to ease below gale force this morning.
• Disturbances: NHC is not tracking any area for possible development.
• Season to date: 10 named storms, 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane, below the 1991-2020 average for late October.

The National Hurricane Center and national weather services issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active storms

There are no active tropical or subtropical cyclones or potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, according to NHC’s home page updated at 10:30 UTC. The most recent Atlantic system, Subtropical Storm Josephine, existed on October 21-22 and has no current advisories. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Vance is active and is covered in Orbis Weather’s Pacific report.

Disturbances to watch

NHC is not monitoring any area for tropical development. Its outlook states: “Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.”

The Tropical Weather Discussion lists no tropical waves and does not mention Saharan dust or wind shear. Its main feature is non-tropical. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure off New England and a stationary front near the northern Bahamas is driving fresh to near-gale northeast winds, with minimal gale force in two offshore zones. NHC said these “will diminish below gale force later this morning.” In the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it forecasts fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds and rough seas into Monday night. A cold front is forecast to reach Bermuda and the central Bahamas by Friday morning.

Season so far

The 2026 Atlantic season is running below normal for late October, with hurricanes the furthest behind. Counts below compare NHC’s season list (updated October 28) with the 1991-2020 average number reached by October 29, derived from NHC’s climatology table.

The season’s only hurricane, Isaias (October 6-10), reached major hurricane strength with peak winds of 105 knots, about 120 mph [195 km/h], per NHC. NHC puts accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure of total storm activity, at 19.5, or 83% below normal. On ENSO, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept an El Niño Advisory in its October 8 discussion and said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027.

What to watch next

No tropical development is expected this week, so the items to follow are routine updates and marine conditions.

• Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC), next update later today: any new area of interest would first appear here with 48-hour and 7-day odds.
• Gales north of the Bahamas (NHC offshore forecasts), this morning: winds were forecast to drop below gale force.
• Cold front toward Bermuda and the central Bahamas (NHC Tropical Weather Discussion), by Friday morning: the front is forecast to move east of 55W by Sunday morning.
• Eastern Gulf of Mexico seas (NHC), through Monday night: fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds and rough seas are forecast.
• Next ENSO update (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), November 12: the monthly discussion will update El Niño’s status.

About this report

This report draws on National Hurricane Center products (the Tropical Weather Outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT and the Tropical Weather Discussion transmitted 10:42 UTC on October 29), NHC’s season list and climatology, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Times are given in US Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) and Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the zones NHC uses for these products. Conditions can change between updates, and NHC’s newest products replace the information here. The report does not replace official forecasts or local emergency guidance.

Glossary

• Tropical cyclone: a rotating, organized storm system that forms over warm tropical waters; tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes are all tropical cyclones.
• Subtropical storm: a cyclone with a mix of tropical and non-tropical traits, named from the same list as tropical storms.
• Major hurricane: a hurricane of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates hurricanes from 1 to 5 by sustained wind speed.
• Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): a combined measure of the strength and duration of a season’s storms.
• El Niño: a periodic warming of the eastern tropical Pacific that affects weather patterns worldwide.

Frequently asked questions

Are there any tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic today? No. NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, and no tropical watches or warnings are in effect.

Is anything expected to form this week? NHC’s 2:00 AM EDT outlook says formation is not expected during the next seven days. It is not tracking any disturbance.

Why are there gales near the Bahamas if nothing tropical is active? The winds come from a non-tropical setup: high pressure off New England pressing against a stationary front near the northern Bahamas. NHC forecast them to fall below gale force this morning.

Is the hurricane season over? Not officially. The Atlantic season runs through November 30, and NHC’s climatology shows an average season still produces its 14th named storm around November 19. So far 2026 is below average, with one hurricane against six normally seen by this date.

Sources

• National Hurricane Center home page, last update 10:30 UTC Oct 29, 2026
• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, issued 2:00 AM EDT Oct 29, 2026
• NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion, transmitted 10:42 UTC Oct 29, 2026 (labeled 12:15 UTC)
• NHC 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone list, last updated Oct 28, 2026
• NHC tropical cyclone climatology, 1991-2020, accessed Oct 29, 2026
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued Oct 8, 2026