By Paul Harrison | Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather
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Tropical Atlantic Daily Report: Tuesday, October 27, 2026
By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather
At a glance
The Atlantic basin is quiet: there are no tropical cyclones, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not expect any to form in the next 7 days.
This report is current to 6:47 a.m. EDT (10:47 UTC) on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. It uses the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2:00 a.m. EDT (0600 UTC) and the Tropical Weather Discussion transmitted at 0914 UTC (5:14 a.m. EDT).
- Active storms: none in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.
- Threats to land: no tropical threat. A non-tropical gale north of a stalled front may bring heavy rain to eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.
- Disturbances: none. NHC’s outlook says formation “is not expected during the next 7 days.”
- Season to date: 10 named storms, 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane, below the 1991-2020 average for late October.
The National Hurricane Center and national weather services issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.
Active storms
There are no active tropical or subtropical cyclones or potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The NHC home page, updated at 10:10 UTC, states: “There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.” No storm threatens land, so this report has no storm-threat section today.
The main weather hazard is non-tropical. A stationary front runs from about 31N 62W to a 1009-millibar low over the northwest Bahamas. NHC has a Gale Warning in effect for strong to gale-force northeast winds and rough to very rough seas north of the front and west of the low. The discussion says heavy rain may affect eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. Gale-force winds are forecast to ease by tonight, while fresh to strong winds and rough seas persist north of the front through the workweek and into the weekend.
Outside the basin, Tropical Storm Vance is active in the eastern North Pacific; Orbis Weather’s Pacific report covers it.
Disturbances to watch
NHC is monitoring no disturbances. Its outlook issued at 2:00 a.m. EDT lists no areas of interest and states: “Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.”
Area | Location | 48-hour chance | 7-day chance | NHC outlook issued |
|---|---|---|---|---|
None | None | Not applicable | Not applicable | 2:00 a.m. EDT, Oct 27 |
The Tropical Weather Discussion lists no tropical waves in this issue. It does not mention Saharan dust or wind shear. Elsewhere it describes fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 8 feet [1.5 to 2.4 m] over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel, easing late this week. A surface trough crosses eastern Cuba and the central Caribbean, drifting west, with winds and seas easing in the western Caribbean on Wednesday.
Season so far
The 2026 season is running well below average, with only one hurricane by late October. NHC’s season summary, current as of 21 UTC on October 25, lists 10 named storms.
Measure | 2026 to date (NHC, as of Oct 25) | 1991-2020 average by this date | 1991-2020 full-season average |
|---|---|---|---|
Named storms | 10 | 13 (13th forms by Oct 25) | 14 |
Hurricanes | 1 | 6 (6th forms by Oct 15) | 7 |
Major hurricanes | 1 | 2 (2nd forms by Sep 19) | 3 |
Averages to date come from NHC’s table of the dates on which each storm normally forms. The only hurricane was Isaias, active October 6-10 with peak winds of 105 knots [120 mph, 195 km/h]. The most recent storm was Subtropical Storm Josephine on October 21-22. NHC puts accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure of total storm activity, at 19.5, or 83% below the 1991-2020 average.
ENSO: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its October 8 discussion, has an El Niño Advisory in effect. It says El Niño “continues to strengthen,” with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January-March 2027.
What to watch next
- Gale north of the Bahamas: NHC forecasts gale-force winds to ease by tonight, with rough seas lasting into the weekend. NHC’s next Tropical Weather Discussion and high seas forecasts will update this.
- Heavy rain risk: eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas; national weather services in each country issue local warnings.
- Formation outlook: NHC’s next Tropical Weather Outlook will show whether any area of interest appears. None is expected for 7 days.
- Late-season climatology: on average, the 14th named storm forms by November 19 (NHC). The official season ends November 30.
- ENSO update: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues its next ENSO discussion on November 12.
About this report
This report summarizes NHC products and NOAA climate data available at 10:47 UTC on October 27, 2026. NHC writes outlooks in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT, UTC-4) and discussions in UTC. Season counts come from NHC’s season page as of October 25 and may lag recent activity. Conditions can change quickly; the newest NHC product always replaces the figures here.
Glossary
- Tropical Weather Outlook: NHC’s routine product giving the chance that a tropical cyclone forms within 48 hours and 7 days.
- Tropical wave: a trough of low pressure moving westward across the tropics, a common seed for storms.
- Stationary front: a boundary between air masses that is barely moving.
- Gale Warning: a marine warning that gale-force winds are occurring or expected over open waters.
- Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE): a season-wide measure combining the strength and lifespan of storms.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a hurricane in the Atlantic today? No. NHC reports no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, and expects none to form in the next 7 days.
Why is there a Gale Warning if there is no storm? The gale comes from a non-tropical setup. A strong ridge over the eastern United States is pressing against a stalled front and a low near the northwest Bahamas, creating a tight pressure gradient and strong northeast winds.
Is the hurricane season over? No. The official season runs through November 30, and NHC climatology shows a 14th named storm forming on average by November 19. Today’s outlook shows no activity expected for the next week.
How does 2026 compare with a normal season? It is behind on every count. The season has produced 10 named storms and 1 hurricane, against 1991-2020 averages of 13 and 6 by this point.
Sources
- National Hurricane Center home page – last updated 10:10 UTC, Oct 27, 2026
- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook – issued 2:00 a.m. EDT, Oct 27, 2026
- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion – transmitted 0914 UTC, Oct 27, 2026
- NHC 2026 Atlantic season summary – as of 21 UTC, Oct 25, 2026
- NHC tropical cyclone climatology – 1991-2020 averages, accessed Oct 27, 2026
- NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion – issued Oct 8, 2026
About the Author
Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather
Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.
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