WESTERN PACIFIC Tropical Weather Update – November 14, 2026

Typhoons, Tropical Cyclones, Heavy Rainfall & Marine Weather Hazards

By Paul Harrison | Orbis Weather

Saturday, November 14, 2026

Western Pacific Remains Quiet After Typhoon Cempaka, but November Storm Threat Is Not Over

The Western Pacific is experiencing another day without an active tropical cyclone, according to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) advisory issued Saturday, November 14, 2026.

The basin-wide assessment, issued at 06:00 UTC, identifies no active tropical cyclones, monitored tropical disturbances or subtropical systems across the Western North Pacific.

The relatively quiet conditions follow the departure of Typhoon Cempaka, which became the region’s 32nd named tropical cyclone of 2026.

Although the immediate threat from organized tropical cyclones is low, the Western Pacific remains vulnerable to heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong seasonal winds and dangerous marine conditions.

Communities across the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, China, Guam and Micronesia should continue monitoring local weather forecasts, particularly as the region moves deeper into November.

Current Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Status

The advisory covers the Western North Pacific from the International Date Line westward toward the Malay Peninsula.

No organized tropical cyclone development area was identified in this assessment. However, the absence of a monitored disturbance does not rule out new development later in November.

Typhoon Cempaka: A Remarkable Milestone for the 2026 Season

Typhoon Cempaka has become one of the notable storms of an unusually active Western Pacific season.

The cyclone formed on November 7 and subsequently strengthened over the open western North Pacific.

According to reporting based on China Meteorological Administration records, Cempaka brought the 2026 count to 32 named tropical cyclones, surpassing the 31 recorded in 2013 and establishing the highest annual total of the 21st century to date.

Historical Japan Meteorological Agency records show that the basin has experienced even more active years, including 1967, when 39 named systems were recorded.

Cempaka’s departure from the active warning picture has brought a temporary break in tropical cyclone activity.

Nevertheless, its development illustrates an important characteristic of the Western Pacific: significant tropical cyclones can still form during November, even after the traditional peak of the typhoon season.

Philippines: Rainfall and Coastal Hazards Remain Important

With no tropical cyclone currently identified in the basin-wide JTWC advisory, the Philippines faces no confirmed active named-storm threat from that assessment.

However, ordinary weather systems can still produce dangerous conditions.

Northern Luzon

Northeasterly seasonal winds can bring cooler, cloudier and occasionally wet weather to northern and eastern Luzon.

Mountainous areas of the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley regions are particularly sensitive to persistent rainfall, which can increase the risk of landslides and slippery roads.

Bicol and Eastern Visayas

Eastern coastal areas remain exposed to moisture arriving from the Philippine Sea.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can produce localized heavy rainfall, particularly where moist onshore winds interact with mountainous terrain.

Mindanao and Southern Philippines

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain a recurring concern in parts of Mindanao.

Even without a tropical cyclone, intense localized rainfall can cause flash flooding in low-lying urban areas.

Important: These are regional weather vulnerabilities, not confirmation that flooding or severe thunderstorms are occurring at every location today. Residents should consult the latest PAGASA bulletins for active warnings.

Taiwan and the East China Sea

Taiwan and the surrounding coastal waters are entering a period when northeasterly seasonal winds become increasingly influential.

These winds can affect the Taiwan Strait, northern Taiwan and the East China Sea, potentially producing rougher seas and stronger coastal gusts.

Although the November 14 JTWC advisory identifies no tropical cyclone approaching Taiwan, marine conditions can deteriorate independently of tropical storm activity.

Fishing vessels, ferries and smaller recreational craft should check official wind and wave forecasts before departure.

Japan and the Ryukyu Islands

The Ryukyu Islands, including Okinawa, remain within the wider Western Pacific tropical cyclone monitoring region.

No active tropical cyclone is identified in the latest JTWC advisory.

However, Japan’s southern islands can still experience unsettled weather associated with seasonal pressure systems, frontal boundaries and changing wind patterns.

Travelers and maritime operators should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency advisories for localized rainfall, high waves and strong winds.

Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and Micronesia

Across Guam, Saipan, Rota, Tinian, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, tropical showers and thunderstorms remain possible despite the absence of an organized tropical cyclone.

Warm ocean waters and localized atmospheric instability can support rapidly developing thunderstorms.

These may produce brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds and reduced visibility.

For maritime communities, changing sea conditions can be particularly important, even when no named storm is present.

The National Weather Service in Guam remains a primary source of regional forecasts and marine warnings.

Philippines: Latest November 14 Rainfall Forecast

PAGASA’s official 4:00 a.m. forecast provides a clearer picture of the immediate weather risks.

Cloudy skies with scattered rain and thunderstorms are forecast across the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, the Davao Region and Marinduque.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding or landslides, especially in vulnerable communities.

Metro Manila and much of the remaining country are expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions, with isolated showers or thunderstorms.

PAGASA forecasts light to moderate winds and coastal waves generally between 0.6 and 2.5 metres (approximately 2–8 feet).

Outlook Through November 20

PAGASA’s weekly forecast highlights several developments:

• November 14–15: Scattered rain and thunderstorms across Caraga and Davao, with lighter rainfall around Batanes and the Babuyan Islands.

• November 16–18: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially across eastern sections of the Philippines.

• November 19–20: Northeast monsoon rainfall affecting parts of northern Luzon, while the Intertropical Convergence Zone could bring scattered thunderstorms to Mindanao.

These forecasts suggest that rainfall, rather than tropical cyclone winds, will remain the principal weather concern in several Philippine regions.

Western Pacific Tropical Development Outlook: Next 24–72 Hours

The immediate tropical cyclone outlook remains relatively quiet.

The JTWC’s November 14 assessment identifies no organized tropical disturbances requiring monitoring across the Western North Pacific.

However, November remains an active part of the region’s extended typhoon season.

Several factors will determine whether new systems develop:

• Sea-surface temperatures and available ocean heat.

• Vertical wind shear, which can either support or disrupt storm organization.

• Atmospheric moisture and thunderstorm development.

• Low-pressure circulation over the Philippine Sea and surrounding tropical waters.

• Larger-scale atmospheric patterns, including the influence of El Niño.

The current JTWC advisory does not provide a numerical 72-hour formation probability, so no specific percentage is being assigned in this report.

El Niño and the Western Pacific

The ongoing El Niño event remains an important background influence on regional weather patterns.

El Niño can alter tropical convection, atmospheric circulation and the distribution of tropical cyclone activity across the Pacific.

However, its effects vary by region and season. A strong El Niño does not automatically mean a tropical cyclone will form or that a particular country will experience a typhoon.

For November, short-term observations, satellite imagery and official tropical cyclone advisories remain essential for determining immediate storm threats.

Marine and Coastal Safety Outlook

Even without an active typhoon, dangerous marine weather can develop across the Western Pacific.

Fishing crews, commercial vessels and recreational boaters should remain alert for changing conditions associated with thunderstorms, seasonal winds and localized pressure systems.

The main hazards to monitor include sudden wind gusts, lightning, reduced visibility during heavy rain, rough coastal waters and dangerous conditions near exposed shorelines.

Marine warnings should always be checked with the appropriate national meteorological authority before departure.

Western Pacific Outlook: What Happens Next?

The Western Pacific has entered a temporary period of reduced tropical cyclone activity following Typhoon Cempaka.

For the immediate future, no organized tropical cyclone threat has been identified in the latest JTWC assessment.

Attention now turns to three developments: whether new disturbances emerge over the warm tropical waters of the Philippine Sea, whether seasonal wind patterns intensify, and whether localized heavy rainfall creates flooding problems across vulnerable communities.

The Philippines remains particularly important to monitor because its eastern and southern regions are forecast to experience scattered thunderstorms.

Elsewhere, local marine conditions and national weather advisories will determine the most immediate hazards.

Orbis Weather Summary – November 14, 2026

The Western Pacific remains free of active tropical cyclones and monitored tropical disturbances according to the JTWC’s 06:00 UTC advisory.

Typhoon Cempaka has departed the active warning picture after contributing to a notably busy 2026 season.

Across the Philippines, PAGASA forecasts scattered rainfall and thunderstorms in several eastern and southern regions, with localized flooding and landslides possible during heavier downpours.

For now, the principal message is that the immediate organized tropical cyclone threat is low, but the wider region is not free from weather-related hazards.

Orbis Weather will continue monitoring the Western Pacific for new tropical disturbances, typhoon development, heavy rainfall and changing marine conditions