Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Update: Saturday, November 14, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 15:46 Réunion and Mauritius time (UTC+4), 14:46 Madagascar time (UTC+3), 13:46 Mozambique time (UTC+2), 06:46 US Eastern (EST) and 11:46 UTC on Saturday, November 14, 2026. Main product used: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean issued at 18:00 UTC on November 13 (22:00 Réunion time).

At a glance

The Southwest Indian Ocean is quiet on the eve of the official cyclone season, with no active storm and no threat to land.

• No active systems. JTWC’s latest Indian Ocean advisory lists no tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean.
• One weak disturbance far from land. JTWC tracks Invest 96S near the equator, northeast of Diego Garcia, and rates its development chance low within 24 hours.
• Season starts tomorrow. The basin’s official season opens on Sunday, November 15, according to Wikipedia’s season page. Mauritius Meteorological Services counts its cyclone season from November 1.
• One named storm so far. Severe Tropical Storm Agueda formed in October, before the official start.

Météo-France La Réunion and national weather services and disaster agencies issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active systems

No tropical cyclone is active in the basin. JTWC’s advisory of 18:00 UTC on November 13 gives “TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE” for the South Indian Ocean, and no national cyclone alerts were found in force. With no system threatening land, this report has no land-threat section today.

Disturbances to watch

JTWC tracks one weak disturbance, Invest 96S, in the far northeast of the basin with a low chance of development.

JTWC describes a “marginally favorable environment” with “moderate to high (20-25 kts) northeasterly shear” and sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30°C (84 to 86°F). It notes “a strong westerly wind burst along the equator” to the north. Global models “agree on 96S tracking generally eastward” but “disagree on the amount of development.” The coordinates place it about 3 degrees of longitude west of 90°E, the boundary with the Australian region.

Season so far

The 2026–27 season has one named storm before its official start, against a Météo-France outlook for a below-normal season.

Agueda formed on October 19 and dissipated on October 23. It peaked as a severe tropical storm with Météo-France 10-minute winds of 95 km/h (59 mph) and 995 hPa. Wikipedia reports flooding and landslides in the Seychelles. Météo-France gives a 70% probability of below-normal activity. Mauritius Meteorological Services (Oct 27) expects five to seven named storms basin-wide.

CPC’s ENSO discussion of November 12 keeps an “El Niño Advisory” in force. Météo-France says this El Niño is potentially stronger than those of 2015–16, 1997–98 or 1982–83, and expects an intertropical convergence zone “globalement moins active que la normale” (generally less active than normal).

What to watch next

• Invest 96S: JTWC reissues its Indian Ocean advisory daily, next due by 18:00 UTC on November 14 (22:00 Réunion time); its models favour an eastward track.
• Season opening: the official season begins Sunday, November 15. Météo-France La Réunion, as RSMC, issues any tropical weather outlook and warnings.
• Mauritius and Rodrigues: Mauritius Meteorological Services issues any cyclone warning classes on its Current Storm/Cyclone page.
• ENSO: CPC’s next monthly discussion is expected in December.

About this report

This daily update covers the Southern Hemisphere from the east coast of Africa to 90°E, where Météo-France La Réunion is the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. It draws on JTWC, Météo-France, Mauritius Meteorological Services, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the sources below. Météo-France winds are 10-minute averages; JTWC winds are 1-minute averages, so the two are not directly comparable. Times are given in each product’s own zone. Figures change with every new bulletin, so official warnings always take precedence.

Glossary

• Invest: a label JTWC gives an area of disturbed weather it is investigating for possible development.
• Moderate tropical storm: the Météo-France class at which a system receives its name, as Agueda did.
• Severe tropical storm: the next class up, below tropical cyclone strength.
• Intertropical convergence zone: the band near the equator where trade winds meet and many storms form.
• Wind shear: a change in wind with height that can tear a developing storm apart.

Frequently asked questions

Is any storm threatening Madagascar, Mauritius or Réunion today? No. JTWC’s latest advisory lists no tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean. The only disturbance, Invest 96S, lies near the equator far to the northeast.

Could Invest 96S become a cyclone? JTWC rates the chance of a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours as low. Its models agree on an eastward track but disagree on how much it develops.

When does the cyclone season start? The official season runs from November 15, 2026, to April 30, 2027, according to Wikipedia’s season page. Mauritius Meteorological Services counts its cyclone season from November 1 to May 15.

Will this be a busy season? Météo-France expects below-normal activity, basin-wide, with a 70% probability, as a strong El Niño peaks. It expects activity near the Mascarene Islands to be “proche de la normale” (close to normal).

Sources

• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean — issued 18:00 UTC, November 13, 2026
• Météo-France La Réunion: Tendance saisonnière d’activité cyclonique, saison 2026 — October 28, 2026
• Imaz Press: Saison cyclonique, entre 6 et 10 tempêtes attendues sur le bassin — November 3, 2026
• Mauritius Meteorological Services: Summer 2026/2027 outlook — October 27, 2026
• Mauritius Meteorological Services: Current Storm/Cyclone — checked November 14, 2026
• Wikipedia: 2026–27 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season — latest event described October 23, 2026
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — November 12, 2026