Southeast Asia Weather & Natural Hazards Today: Sunday, November 15, 2026

Nov 15, 2026 · @Paul

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Northeast monsoon rain is the main hazard across Southeast Asia on Sunday, November 15. Indonesia’s weather agency BMKG has heavy-rain warnings out for nine provinces from Aceh to North Maluku, Malaysia’s MetMalaysia expects thunderstorms over most peninsular states from November 15 to 17, and southern Thailand and central Vietnam had flooding earlier this week. In the Philippines, Mayon Volcano stays at Alert Level 3 after a new lava dome was seen in its crater on November 13.

No tropical cyclone threatens the region. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) listed no storms or disturbances in the western North Pacific or South China Sea, and the Japan Meteorological Agency had no active tropical cyclones. Two weak low-pressure areas in the Indian Ocean are being watched. This report is current to 07:00 Sunday in Bangkok, Hanoi and Jakarta (UTC+7), 08:00 Sunday in Manila, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur (UTC+8), and 7 p.m. Saturday, November 14, US Eastern time.

Key facts

Tropical cyclones

No named storm or tropical depression is active in the western Pacific, South China Sea, Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea. An “invest” is an area of disturbed weather that forecasters are investigating for possible development.

BMKG says 96S is helping to draw a long band of converging winds along Sumatra’s west coast from Aceh to West Sumatra.

Floods and heavy rain

Vietnam

Central Vietnam had more than 500 mm of rain at several places from November 9 to 11, including over 630 mm at Tra Thanh in Quang Ngai and nearly 553 mm at Tra Giap in Da Nang, VnExpress reported. As of 5 p.m. on November 12, local authorities counted 2,734 houses inundated in Gia Lai and Dak Lak, 1,887 households moved out of high-risk areas, two people injured in Hue and no deaths, according to the Vietnam News Agency. The Ve River in Quang Ngai stood 0.4 m above alarm level 2 that afternoon. The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) forecast the rain to ease from the afternoon of November 13.

Thailand

The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) sent mobile-phone flood alerts on November 12 to Koh Samui in Surat Thani and Tha Sala in Nakhon Si Thammarat, warning of flash floods, run-off from forests and overflowing canals. On Koh Samui, police reported water over the road outside the municipal offices that morning, and the town closed a canal sluice gate and ran large pumps. The Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) forecast heavy to very heavy rain in 13 provinces on November 14, mostly in the south, and expects further heavy rain across the south from November 18 to 22.

Malaysia

MetMalaysia Director-General Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said a convergence of winds “could bring thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds over a longer duration in most states” of the peninsula from November 15 to 17.

Indonesia

BMKG’s forecast for November 15 puts Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Riau Islands, Bangka Belitung, West Java, West Kalimantan and North Maluku on alert for heavy to very heavy rain. It also warns of waves of 2–4 m in the Indian Ocean west of Lampung and south of Banten to East Java. Earlier this month, floods in Deli Serdang and Serdang Bedagai in North Sumatra on November 5 and 7 affected about 9,600 people, the ASEAN AHA Centre reported, citing Indonesia’s disaster agency BNPB.

Country-by-country weather today

Earthquakes

The five strongest earthquakes in the region in the 48 hours to Sunday morning, from the US Geological Survey (USGS). Depth is measured below the surface.

Tsunami status: USGS flagged no tsunami potential for any of these events.

Volcanoes

Alert levels run from 0 to 5 in the Philippines (PHIVOLCS) and from I to IV in Indonesia (PVMBG); higher means greater danger.

Haze, fires and air quality

There is no regional haze episode. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has lowered the southern ASEAN haze alert to Alert Level 0, which marks the end of the dry season there, and reports only few to isolated fire hotspots in Kalimantan and Myanmar with no significant smoke plumes. Its November 2026 to January 2027 seasonal outlook rates the risk of transboundary haze (smoke crossing borders) in the southern region as low.

What to watch over the next few days

• Peninsular Malaysia, through Nov 17: longer-lasting thunderstorms under MetMalaysia’s wind-convergence forecast.
• Southern Thailand, Nov 18–22: TMD expects continuous rain with heavy to very heavy falls; the Office of the National Water Resources has eight southern provinces under watch for that period.
• Mayon: PHIVOLCS Director Teresito Bacolcol said on Nov 2 that continued activity could lead to Alert Level 4; residents of Guinobatan, Daraga and Camalig have been warned of pyroclastic flows, rockfalls, lava and ashfall.
• Indian Ocean lows: Invest 92B is moving northwest in the Bay of Bengal and 96S east toward the waters west of Sumatra; both have a low chance of strengthening in the next day.
• Chao Phraya basin, Thailand: the Royal Irrigation Department planned to raise discharge from the Chao Phraya Dam to 1,000–1,200 cubic metres per second, with 11 basin provinces notified.

About this article

This report summarises official bulletins from regional weather, disaster and volcano agencies and news reports that cite them. It is not an official warning: for decisions about safety, follow your national weather service and local authorities. Figures are given as each agency or outlet reported them, with dates, and some date from earlier in the week; wind speeds were converted from knots (1 knot = 1.852 km/h) and distances from nautical miles (1 nautical mile = 1.852 km). Earthquake magnitudes are preliminary USGS values and may be revised.

Frequently asked questions

Is a typhoon heading for the Philippines or Vietnam? No. JTWC listed no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the western North Pacific or South China Sea, and JMA had none active. The only systems being watched are two weak lows in the Indian Ocean.

Why is it raining so much in southern Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia? Thai forecasters link the rain in the south to the northeast monsoon, boosted this week by a high-pressure system (a mass of cold air) from China, and MetMalaysia points to converging winds over the peninsula. In Indonesia, BMKG links part of the heavy rain on Sumatra’s west coast to a band of converging winds drawn in by the Indian Ocean low 96S.

What does the new lava dome at Mayon mean? A lava dome is a mound of thick lava that piles up over a volcano’s vent. Satellite images first showed the crater floor bulging on November 2–4, and the dome was seen on camera from the Ligñon Hill Observatory on November 13. PHIVOLCS keeps Mayon at Alert Level 3 and warns people to stay out of the permanent danger zone.

Is haze affecting Singapore or Malaysia? No haze episode is under way. ASMC reports few fire hotspots and rates the risk of transboundary haze in the southern region as low through January.

Sources

• JTWC Western and South Pacific advisory (Nov 14, 06:00 UTC)
• JTWC Indian Ocean advisory (Nov 13, 18:00 UTC)
• JMA active tropical cyclone list
• USGS earthquake catalogue query
• ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
• GMA News: PAGASA forecast for Sunday (Nov 14)
• GMA News: Kanlaon 600-metre ash plume (Nov 15)
• Philstar: New lava dome at Mayon (Nov 14)
• Manila Times: Mayon heightened activity (Nov 2)
• VietnamPlus: Central floods inundate over 2,700 houses (Nov 13)
• VnExpress: Floods sever roads in central Vietnam (Nov 12)
• The Thaiger: Thailand weather, Nov 14
• The Nation: DDPM flood alerts for Surat Thani and Nakhon Si Thammarat (Nov 12)
• The Star: Koh Samui flooding (Nov 12)
• The Nation: Southern flood preparations and Chao Phraya (Nov 12)
• Malay Mail: MetMalaysia wind convergence warning (Nov 14)
• Disway: BMKG forecast for Nov 15
• Tribunnews: Anak Krakatau, Merapi and Semeru at Siaga (Nov 11)
• Antara Ambon: Dukono eruption (Nov 14)
• AHA Centre: Weekly Disaster Update, Nov 2–8