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🇺🇸 U.S. Weather Outlook: What to Expect This Week

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Saturday, November 14, 2026

U.S. Weather Outlook (Next 7 Days): Nov. 14–20, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

At a glance

A stormy West and a chilly East define the week of Saturday, Nov. 14, through Friday, Nov. 20, 2026. This outlook was written Saturday at 9:30 a.m. EST.

  • West: Back-to-back Pacific storms bring rain to California and the Northwest and heavy mountain snow from the Sierra Nevada to the Rockies, with another system due midweek.
  • South-central states: Heavy rain moves from the Southern Plains on Saturday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday, with isolated flash flooding possible.
  • East: Below-normal temperatures and frost or freeze into early next week, then a gradual warm-up late in the week.
  • Coasts: High surf and coastal flooding along the California coast this weekend.
  • Tropics: No tropical cyclones are active, and none are expected to form in the next seven days.

Local National Weather Service offices issue the official watches and warnings for each area.

The big picture

An amplified jet stream sets the pattern: a trough of cold air aloft over the East early in the week and repeated troughs pushing into the West. Two atmospheric rivers, long plumes of Pacific moisture, reach the West Coast on Saturday and Sunday. Weather Prediction Center forecasters expect an upper ridge over the north-central states to spread east late in the week, ending the eastern chill. Rain and mountain snow from the West could spread into the central states by mid to late week, though forecasters say the timing of an upper low entering the West is still unsettled.

Day by day

The West stays active all week, while the East turns from cold and breezy to dry and milder.

Day

East

Central states

West

Sat., Nov. 14

Cold and breezy; lake-effect snow showers in the Great Lakes and northern New England

Heavy rain on the Southern Plains; small hail possible in Texas

Heavy snow in the Utah and Colorado mountains; Northwest front arrives in the evening

Sun., Nov. 15

Dry, cold morning; first freeze for much of eastern North Carolina

Rain shifts to the Lower Mississippi Valley; isolated strong storms on the Texas Coastal Plain

Second atmospheric river reaches California; Sierra snow begins late

Mon., Nov. 16

Cold mornings continue

Cooler air spreads into Texas

Heavy Sierra and Cascade snow; snow levels falling behind a cold front

Tue., Nov. 17

Frost or freeze possible in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

Rain along the Gulf Coast and Florida, heaviest offshore

Strong front: rain in valleys, snow in the Great Basin and Rockies

Wed., Nov. 18

Gradual warming

Rain and snow may reach the northern Plains

Heavy rain possible in California; strong Sierra ridge winds

Thu., Nov. 19

Milder; rain lingers on Florida’s east coast

Rain and snow may spread into the central U.S.

Upper low moves into the West; snow levels drop near Reno

Fri., Nov. 20

Dry and milder

Snow possible on the north side of a low; warm north-central states

Coldest morning of the week in western Nevada; dry in western Washington

Region by region

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: New York City highs reach only the upper 40s Saturday, climbing to the lower 60s by Thursday and Friday with an extended dry spell. Boston-area lows stay in the 20s and low 30s through the week.

Southeast: Inland eastern North Carolina expects lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Sunday morning under a Freeze Warning, amid ongoing drought. Rain spreads along the Gulf Coast and Florida early next week, lingering on Florida’s east coast into midweek.

Midwest and Great Lakes: Much of the region could see its first freeze of the season this weekend, and lake-effect showers end after Saturday. Widespread highs in the 50s are forecast for the north-central U.S. next week.

Plains: Rain spreads across south-central Texas Saturday and Sunday, and Monday highs there stay below 60 except in the southern Rio Grande Plains. Forecasters note that highs in the 50s in parts of Texas “are more typical of January.”

Rockies and Great Basin: Heavy snow falls Saturday in the Wasatch, Uintas, San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, with up to 12 inches locally in the San Juans. Around Reno, lows drop into the teens and 20s Saturday, and the coldest air of the week arrives Thursday night into Friday.

Southwest and California: Rain ends in Southern California Saturday afternoon. The Sacramento Valley expects 0.25 to 1 inch Sunday into Monday, with 0.75 to 1.75 inches in higher terrain.

Pacific Northwest: Western Washington gets another 1 to 3 inches of rain on the coast and 0.50 to 1 inch inland through the weekend, most of it Saturday night. Highs reach the lower 50s Sunday and Monday, then a blocking pattern keeps the area dry through Friday.

Alaska: A rapidly deepening North Pacific low brings high winds to the Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday, with north to northeast winds of 50 to 55 knots (about 58 to 63 mph) behind it.

Hawaii: Gustier trade winds arrive late this weekend, and the best chance of statewide rain comes Tuesday and Wednesday, with the heaviest windward and mountain showers on the Big Island.

Hazards this week

Mountain snow and coastal surf are the week’s main hazards; severe weather is limited.

Hazard

Where

When

What forecasters say

Heavy snow

Wasatch, Uintas, San Juans, Sangre de Cristos

Saturday

50% to 80% chance of at least 6 inches above 7,000 to 9,000 feet

Heavy snow

Sierra Nevada, northern California ranges, parts of the Cascades

Late Sunday into Monday

Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or more; over 70% chance of at least 6 inches

Heavy snow

Sierra to central and northern Nevada, Idaho, western Montana

Monday into Tuesday

Difficult travel expected

Lake-effect snow

Adirondacks and Green Mountains

Saturday

Chance of 4 inches or more as high as 30% to 50%

Flooding rain

Southern Plains, then Lower Mississippi Valley

Saturday, then Sunday

Isolated flash flooding possible

Flooding rain

California

Wednesday

WPC Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall

Severe storms

Texas Coastal Plain

Sunday

SPC Marginal Risk; isolated strong to severe storms possible

Wind

Grays Harbor and northern Washington coast, San Juan County

4 p.m. Saturday to 4 a.m. Sunday PST

Wind Advisory

Wind

Sierra ridges in the Reno forecast area

Sunday night; Wednesday

Gusts of 50 to 65 mph Sunday night, about 70 mph or more Wednesday

Frost and freeze

Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

Early next week

Frost and freeze hazards expected

High surf and coastal flooding

Central and Southern California coast

Saturday into Sunday

Breakers up to 35 feet on the Bay Area coast; Coastal Flood Warning for Los Angeles-area coastal zones Saturday

Coastal flooding

Back bays of New Jersey and Delaware

Until 4 p.m. EST Saturday

Coastal Flood Advisory

Fire

Nationwide

This week

National Preparedness Level 1; 92 new fires on Friday

The National Interagency Fire Center’s Saturday report lists five uncontained large fires, including the 2,378-acre Range 47 fire near Hattiesburg, Miss.

Tropics

No tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific or central Pacific. The National Hurricane Center’s outlooks issued Saturday at 7 a.m. EST (Atlantic) and 4 a.m. PST (eastern Pacific) and the Central Pacific outlook at 2 a.m. HST all say formation is not expected in the next seven days. Newer outlooks replace these.

Beyond the week

The Climate Prediction Center favors a mild East and a cool, wet West heading into Thanksgiving week. Its outlooks were issued Friday, Nov. 13, at 3 p.m. EST, with confidence rated above normal, 4 out of 5, for both periods.

Period

Temperature

Precipitation

6 to 10 days (Nov. 19–23)

Above normal for most areas east of the Rockies, over 80% likely near the Great Lakes; below normal for most of the West

Above normal from California through the Rockies, Plains and Mississippi Valley; below normal in the Northeast and parts of the Northwest

8 to 14 days (Nov. 21–27)

Above normal for most of the East, over 60% likely in the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic; near to below normal in the Great Basin, Four Corners and Southern Plains

Above normal for much of California and the Plains and Mississippi Valley, over 50% likely from southern Texas into Florida; below normal in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies

Alaska leans warmer than normal in both periods. Hawaii leans drier than normal, which forecasters tie to the winter El Niño signal.

What could change

The biggest open question is the midweek storm in the West.

  • Western upper low, Wednesday to Friday: WPC says guidance “still struggles” with the placement and timing of an upper low entering the West, which affects California rain and Sierra snow totals.
  • Sierra cold front, Sunday into Monday: Forecasters note “a bit of uncertainty” in the front’s timing, which controls when snow levels fall.
  • Southern California rain, Sunday night to Monday: The Los Angeles office says the number of forecast solutions with no rain has increased.
  • Northern Plains rain and snow, midweek: WPC says the details are uncertain for rain and snow reaching the northern Plains.
  • Storm track, Nov. 21–27: The Climate Prediction Center cites elevated uncertainty in the path of any storm leading into Thanksgiving.

About this outlook

This outlook summarizes forecasts from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center, plus local National Weather Service forecast discussions and the National Interagency Fire Center. Day 1 is Saturday, Nov. 14, and day 7 is Friday, Nov. 20. Forecasts beyond three days carry more uncertainty, and local conditions can differ from regional summaries.

Glossary

  • Atmospheric river: A long, narrow band of moisture that can bring heavy rain and mountain snow.
  • Trough and ridge: A dip in the jet stream that brings cooler, unsettled weather, and a bulge that brings warmer, drier weather.
  • Snow level: The elevation above which precipitation falls mainly as snow.
  • Lake-effect snow: Snow that forms when cold air crosses warmer lake water.
  • Blocking pattern: A stalled high and low pressure arrangement that holds weather in place for days.

Frequently asked questions

Will there be travel trouble in the Sierra Nevada? Yes. The Weather Prediction Center expects difficult travel as heavy snow falls late Sunday into Tuesday, and Carson Pass has a 75% to 95% chance of up to 6 inches of new snow. More snow is expected Wednesday and Thursday.

When does the cold in the East end? Late in the week. Forecasters expect a ridge to spread east, bringing gradually warmer and dry weather to the Northeast.

Is severe weather expected? Very little. The only organized risk this week is an SPC Marginal Risk for the Texas Coastal Plain on Sunday.

Is any tropical storm threatening the U.S.? No. No tropical cyclones are active, and none are expected to form in the Atlantic or Pacific in the next seven days.

What does Thanksgiving week look like? Early signals favor above-normal temperatures in the East and wetter-than-normal weather from California through the Plains. The storm track that week is still uncertain.

Sources

National centers

Local National Weather Service forecast discussions

Sources & Methodology
Weekly Global Weather Watch is compiled by Orbis Weather using information from official national and international meteorological agencies, including NOAA, the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization and relevant national weather agencies worldwide.

Orbis Weather reviews these official observations, forecasts, warnings and outlooks to identify the most significant global weather patterns and hazards for the week ahead. Forecast conditions can change as new observations and model guidance become available.

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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