Australian Region Tropical Weather Update: Saturday, November 14, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 10:11 p.m. AWST and 11:41 p.m. ACST on Saturday, November 14, 2026; 12:11 a.m. AEST and 1:11 a.m. AEDT on Sunday, November 15; 9:11 a.m. US Eastern (EST) and 14:11 UTC on Saturday, November 14. Main products: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Indian Ocean advisory valid from 18:00 UTC November 13 and Western and South Pacific advisory valid from 06:00 UTC November 14; Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Tropical Climate Update and Climate Driver Update, both issued November 10.

At a glance

The Australian region is quiet tonight: no tropical cyclone or tropical low between 90°E and 160°E appears in JTWC’s latest advisories, and no land is under threat.

• No active systems. JTWC’s Indian Ocean and South Pacific advisories list no tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere and no suspect area inside the region.
• Nearest disturbance is outside the region. Invest 96S sits just west of 90°E, near the equator, and JTWC rates its 24-hour development potential as low.
• Season to date. The 2026–27 season opened on November 1. No tropical cyclone has been recorded in the region so far, according to the season’s Wikipedia page.
• Climate backdrop. BoM says a strong to very strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are underway.

The Bureau of Meteorology, Indonesia’s BMKG and Papua New Guinea’s National Weather Service issue the official forecasts and warnings for the region. Follow emergency service directions and evacuation orders immediately.

Active systems

There are no active tropical cyclones or tropical lows in the Australian region in JTWC’s Indian Ocean advisory (valid from 18:00 UTC November 13) or its Western and South Pacific advisory (valid from 06:00 UTC November 14). Both list “NONE” under the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone summary.

One line beyond the boundary: JTWC places Invest 96S at 2.1°S, 86.7°E, west of 90°E in the area covered by Orbis Weather’s Southwest Indian Ocean report. JTWC estimates its winds at 23 to 28 knots, or 43 to 52 km/h (26 to 32 mph), 1-minute average, with pressure near 1009 hPa, and rates development potential within 24 hours as low.

Tropical lows to watch

No tropical low or suspect area inside 90°E to 160°E is listed in JTWC’s latest advisories. JTWC notes 20 to 25 knot shear over Invest 96S, which lies outside the region.

BoM’s Tropical Climate Update of November 10 says a “moderate to strong Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is currently in the Indian Ocean.” Most models move it east across the Indian Ocean over the following week, and most weaken it before it reaches the Maritime Continent. BoM adds that the MJO has little influence on Australian-region rainfall at this time of year. For November 14 to 27, BoM’s outlook favours above-average rainfall for much of the Northern Territory and Queensland, and below-average rainfall for much of northern Western Australia.

Season so far

The 2026–27 season, which runs from November 1 to April 30, has produced no tropical cyclones in its first two weeks. BoM notes that, on average, the first cyclone landfall comes in late December.

BoM’s Climate Driver Update of November 10 says “a strong to very strong El Niño is underway” and “a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway.” A November 2 Weatherzone analysis says these conditions “normally mean below-average cyclone numbers,” but expects a higher share of cyclones that do form to reach severe intensity.

What to watch next

With no system in the region, the next checks are the routine outlooks and advisories.

• JTWC Indian Ocean advisory, reissued around 18:00 UTC November 14 (2:00 a.m. AWST Sunday): whether Invest 96S develops or drifts toward 90°E.
• JTWC Western and South Pacific advisory, valid until 06:00 UTC November 15: any new suspect area in the Arafura or Coral Seas.
• BoM tropical cyclone outlooks for the Western, Northern and Eastern regions: the first sign of any tropical low forming in Australian waters.
• BoM Tropical Climate Update, issued weekly during the wet season: the next read on the MJO pulse and northern rainfall.
• BMKG (TCWC Jakarta): any “bibit siklon tropis” (tropical cyclone seed) south of Indonesia.

About this report

This report covers the Southern Hemisphere between 90°E and 160°E, where BoM is the main warning centre and BMKG (TCWC Jakarta) and TCWC Port Moresby cover waters near Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. It draws on JTWC advisories, BoM climate products and season pages, each with the issue time given. Times are labelled by zone: AWST (UTC+8), ACST (UTC+9:30), AEST (UTC+10), AEDT (UTC+11), WIB (UTC+7) and US Eastern. BoM and BMKG use 10-minute average winds; JTWC uses 1-minute averages, which run higher for the same storm. Official warnings always take precedence over this summary.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a cyclone threatening Australia tonight? No. JTWC’s latest advisories list no tropical cyclone or suspect area in the Australian region. BoM remains the official source for any new tropical low or warning.

Has the 2026–27 cyclone season had any cyclones yet? Not so far, according to the season’s Wikipedia page. The season runs to April 30, and the table under “Season so far” compares the count with BoM’s long-term average.

How might El Niño affect this season? BoM reports a strong to very strong El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. A Weatherzone analysis says these normally mean below-average cyclone numbers, while warm seas could let more storms reach severe strength.

What is Invest 96S? It is a weak disturbance JTWC is tracking near the equator, west of 90°E. It lies outside the Australian region, and JTWC rates its chance of development within 24 hours as low.

Sources

• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean, valid 18:00 UTC November 13 to 18:00 UTC November 14, 2026
• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans, valid 06:00 UTC November 14 to 06:00 UTC November 15, 2026
• BoM Tropical Climate Update, issued November 10, 2026
• BoM Climate Driver Update, issued November 10, 2026
• BoM Australian tropical cyclone season page, read November 14, 2026
• BoM: Helping Australia prepare for severe weather season, issued October 8, 2026
• Wikipedia: 2026–27 Australian region cyclone season, read November 14, 2026
• DTN/Weatherzone: Australia’s 2026-27 Tropical Cyclone Season: Late Start, Real Risk, November 2, 2026