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🌀 Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Update

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Sunday, November 15, 2026

Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Update: Sunday, November 15, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to Sunday, November 15, 2026: 15:46 Réunion and Mauritius time (UTC+4), 14:46 Madagascar time (UTC+3), 13:46 Mozambique time (UTC+2), 06:46 US Eastern (EST) and 11:46 UTC. Main products: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Indian Ocean advisory issued 18:00 UTC Friday, November 13 (22:00 Réunion time), and Météo-France La Réunion’s seasonal outlook of October 28.

At a glance

The Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season officially opens today with no named storm active and no threat to land in the latest products.

  • No active warnings. JTWC’s latest advisory lists no tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean.
  • One low-chance area. JTWC tracks Invest 96S near the equator, far east of the Mascarenes, with a “low” chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours.
  • Early start already logged. Moderate tropical storm Agueda formed near the Seychelles in October, and Tropical Depression 02 brushed far northern Madagascar on November 8–9 before dissipating.
  • Quieter season expected. Météo-France La Réunion gives a 70% chance of below-normal activity, with El Niño the main driver.

Météo-France La Réunion, as Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, and national weather services and disaster agencies issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow any evacuation order immediately.

Active systems

No tropical cyclone is active in the basin. JTWC’s advisory of 18:00 UTC, November 13, gives its South Indian Ocean tropical cyclone summary as “NONE”. Météo-France La Réunion’s most recent available forecast warning, number 5 on Zone of Disturbed Weather 2, was issued at 01:40 UTC on November 7; that system has since dissipated. No national cyclone alert has been reported for Réunion or Madagascar since then. Météo Madagascar’s homepage, updated November 14, carried only a fire-weather vigilance.

Disturbances to watch

One area, Invest 96S, is being monitored, and JTWC rates its near-term chances as low. It lies near the equator, about 1,678 km (1,043 miles) northeast of Diego Garcia.

Area

Location

Agency

Winds and pressure

Development chance

Issued

Invest 96S

2.1°S, 86.7°E; 906 nautical miles northeast of Diego Garcia

JTWC

23–28 knots, 1-minute average: 43–52 km/h (26–32 mph); near 1009 hPa

“LOW” for a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours

18:00 UTC Nov 13 (22:00 Réunion time)

JTWC describes moderate to high northeasterly wind shear of 20–25 knots over the area and sea surface temperatures of 29–30°C (84–86°F). It notes that the ECMWF model shows “QUICK CONSOLIDATION” while GFS “TAKES MUCH LONGER”, and that only “A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS” of the ensembles reach tropical cyclone strength. Météo-France La Réunion’s outlook of 12:00 UTC November 5 expected the Madden–Julian Oscillation to regenerate over the basin, followed by Kelvin and equatorial Rossby waves, and said a new tropical low could form in the centre or east of the basin by mid-November, “which will need to be confirmed”. Newer Météo-France outlooks will supersede it.

Season so far

The 2026–27 season has produced one named storm and no tropical cyclones before its official start. The official season runs from November 15, 2026, to April 30, 2027, extended to May 15, 2027, for Mauritius and the Seychelles, according to Wikipedia’s season page.

Measure

So far

Météo-France outlook (Oct 28)

Normal (Météo-France)

Named storms

1 (Agueda)

6–10, including Agueda

10

Tropical cyclones

0

3–5

5

Intense tropical cyclones

0

not stated

not stated

Agueda formed near the Seychelles around October 19–20, which Mayotte Hebdo reported was “more than three weeks” before the usual median date for the first named storm. Wikipedia lists its peak as a severe tropical storm with Météo-France 10-minute winds of 95 km/h (59 mph) and 995 hPa, though its own text describes a moderate tropical storm. Tropical Depression 02 (November 5–9) did not reach storm strength and was not named. Wikipedia’s season page does not yet list Depression 02. Mauritius Meteorological Services forecasts 5–7 storms, as cited by Wikipedia.

Climate drivers: Météo-France gives a 70% chance of below-normal activity, linked to a very strong El Niño and a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center discussion of October 8 kept an “El Niño Advisory” in force and said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027.

What to watch next

  • Invest 96S: JTWC’s November 13 advisory was valid for 24 hours to 18:00 UTC November 14, so a newer advisory replaces its figures.
  • Météo-France La Réunion bulletin: the “bulletin for cyclonic activity and significant tropical weather”, dated 12:00 UTC, rates the chance of a moderate tropical storm forming.
  • New tropical low in the centre or east of the basin: Météo-France flagged this possibility for mid-November; watch its bulletins for a numbered zone of disturbed weather.
  • Seasonal outlook update: the WMO-backed regional climate forum (SWIOCOF-15) said activity after February “is still uncertain”.
  • ENSO update: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center scheduled a new ENSO discussion for November 12, which updates the October 8 status.

About this report

This daily update covers the Southern Hemisphere from the east coast of Africa to 90°E, where Météo-France La Réunion is the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. It draws on JTWC, Météo-France La Réunion, Météo Madagascar, NOAA and regional news outlets, with each product’s issue time given in the text. Times are in UTC unless a local zone is named: Réunion and Mauritius UTC+4, Madagascar UTC+3, Mozambique UTC+2. Météo-France uses 10-minute average winds; JTWC uses 1-minute averages, so their figures are not directly comparable. Official warnings always take precedence over this summary.

Term

Meaning

Zone of disturbed weather

Météo-France’s first class for an organised area of low pressure and showers, below tropical depression

Moderate tropical storm

Météo-France’s class at which a system receives a name

Intense tropical cyclone

Météo-France’s class above tropical cyclone and below very intense tropical cyclone

Invest

A JTWC label for an area under investigation for possible development

Madden–Julian Oscillation

An eastward-moving pulse of tropical cloud and rain that can favour storm formation where it passes

Frequently asked questions

Is any storm threatening Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius or Réunion today? No. JTWC’s latest advisory lists no tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean, and the only area it is watching, Invest 96S, lies near the equator at 86.7°E.

When does the cyclone season start? The official season starts today, November 15, and runs to April 30, 2027, with Mauritius and the Seychelles extending it to May 15. Storms can form outside these dates, as Agueda did in October.

Will this season be quieter than usual? Météo-France La Réunion gives a 70% chance of below-normal activity, with 6–10 named storms against a normal of 10. The regional climate forum expects mainly southward tracks, which it says lowers the landfall risk for Madagascar and Mozambique, while the risk for the Mascarene islands “should be near normal”.

What happened with Tropical Depression 02? It passed near Cap d’Ambre in far northern Madagascar on the night of November 8–9 and dissipated without becoming a storm. L’Express de Madagascar reported on November 9 that the national weather service had a red heavy-rain vigilance for the Vohémar and Sambava districts, with 40–70 mm (1.6–2.8 inches) forecast in 24 hours. Those reports gave no casualty or damage figures.

Sources

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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