South America Weather & Natural Hazards Today – November 15, 2026

By Paul Harrison | Orbis Weather

Sunday, November 15, 2026

Heavy Rain Threatens Ecuador and Colombia as Thunderstorms Spread Across Brazil and Heat Intensifies in Peru

South America faces another unsettled day on Sunday, November 15, with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, localized flooding, landslide risks and unusually warm conditions affecting several countries.

The most significant weather concerns are concentrated across western Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil and Peru, while changing atmospheric conditions could bring additional rainfall and thunderstorms to parts of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Brazil is preparing for an expansion of thunderstorms across its central and southeastern regions, with unsettled conditions potentially intensifying into Monday.

Meanwhile, Ecuador faces the possibility of additional heavy rainfall around the Gulf of Guayaquil, Colombia continues monitoring rain-related hazards, and Peru is experiencing elevated daytime temperatures along its coast and across portions of the Andes.

Today’s main concern: Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms could create dangerous conditions in flood-prone communities, particularly where drainage systems, rivers and steep terrain increase vulnerability.

This report combines the latest available official forecasts with regional natural hazard monitoring. Forecast threats are distinguished from confirmed incidents.

1. Brazil – Widespread Thunderstorms and Increasing Flood Risks

Brazil is experiencing an increasingly active weather pattern as warm, moisture-rich air combines with atmospheric disturbances.

According to Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), thunderstorms are expected across substantial portions of the country from November 14 through November 16.

Central and Southeastern Brazil

Rainfall and thunderstorm activity are forecast to expand across:

• São Paulo

• Rio de Janeiro

• Minas Gerais

• Goiás

• Mato Grosso do Sul

• Parts of Mato Grosso

Strong thunderstorms may produce intense rainfall, lightning, gusty winds and isolated hail.

Urban areas could experience localized flooding where heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage systems.

Southern Brazil

Paraná, Santa Catarina and parts of Rio Grande do Sul remain vulnerable to additional rainfall and thunderstorms.

INMET’s weekly outlook identified the potential for substantial rainfall accumulations in parts of southern Brazil during November 9–16, with some locations receiving more than 60 mm (2.4 inches).

These totals represent multiday forecast accumulations, not necessarily rainfall expected on Sunday alone.

Outlook for Monday, November 16

INMET expects instability to intensify across several regions.

A possible area of low pressure developing offshore from southeastern Brazil could help organize a broader moisture corridor extending between northern, central, southeastern and northeastern parts of the country.

This could sustain heavy rainfall and thunderstorms into the beginning of the working week.

Main hazards: Lightning, localized flash flooding, strong wind gusts and potentially damaging thunderstorms.

Source: INMET – Official November 9–16 Weather Outlook.

2. Ecuador – Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Concerns Around Guayaquil

Western Ecuador remains one of South America’s most important rainfall monitoring areas today.

The U.S. National Weather Service’s South American Forecast Discussion, issued November 12, identified significant rainfall potential across western and southwestern Ecuador through the weekend.

Gulf of Guayaquil

The forecast indicated that heavy rainfall could continue into Sunday as Pacific moisture converges around the Gulf of Guayaquil.

The atmospheric pattern includes low-level circulation capable of concentrating moisture and encouraging repeated showers and thunderstorms.

Areas requiring particular attention include Guayaquil and surrounding low-lying communities.

Potential hazards

Heavy rainfall could lead to:

• Rapid flooding of streets and underpasses.

• Rising water levels in urban drainage channels.

• Difficult driving conditions and transport disruptions.

• Landslides in vulnerable hillside communities.

• Lightning and locally strong thunderstorms.

Recent flooding has already been reported in northern Guayaquil, making additional rainfall particularly concerning where drainage remains restricted.

However, the regional forecast does not establish that widespread new flooding has occurred on November 15.

Outlook: Residents should monitor updated rainfall observations and official warnings, particularly around Guayaquil and southwestern Ecuador.

Source: NOAA/NWS South American Forecast Discussion.

3. Colombia – Heavy Rainfall, Landslides and Localized Flooding

Colombia continues experiencing a combination of tropical rainfall, thunderstorms and elevated temperatures.

The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) forecasts significant precipitation across western and northwestern Colombia on Sunday.

Areas with rainfall potential

The November 15 forecast identifies rainfall across portions of:

• The Pacific coastal region.

• Western and northwestern Colombia.

• The Andean region.

• Parts of the Amazon.

• Scattered eastern and southeastern areas.

The strongest rainfall concentrations are forecast around portions of the Pacific coast and western Andean regions.

Landslide and river flooding risks

Heavy rainfall can increase the possibility of slope failures, particularly in mountainous departments such as Chocó, Antioquia, Cauca and Nariño.

Communities along rivers and steep terrain should monitor updated hydrological and landslide alerts.

IDEAM maintains separate monitoring systems for rainfall, river conditions, landslides and wildfire threats.

Heat concerns

Northern Colombia also continues to experience warm conditions.

High daytime temperatures can increase heat stress, particularly in urban areas and locations with limited shade.

Main hazards: Heavy rain, lightning, localized flooding, landslides and heat exposure.

Source: IDEAM – Colombia’s Official Weather and Hazard Service.

4. Peru – Rising Temperatures, Strong Sunshine and Mountain Weather

Peru faces a different combination of hazards today, with elevated daytime temperatures affecting coastal and mountainous regions.

The National Institute of Civil Defense (INDECI), using SENAMHI forecasts, issued Meteorological Bulletin No. 465-2026 covering November 13–16.

The bulletin warns of moderate to extreme increases in daytime temperatures along the coast and moderate to strong increases in the highlands.

Forecast temperatures

Elevated ultraviolet radiation

Reduced cloud cover around midday could contribute to stronger ultraviolet radiation.

People spending extended periods outdoors should take precautions against sunburn, dehydration and heat exhaustion.

Afternoon wind gusts approaching 30 km/h (19 mph) are also possible.

Rainfall cannot be ruled out along the northern coast.

Mountain and landslide hazards

Although elevated temperatures are the principal concern in the latest verified bulletin, Peru’s mountainous terrain remains vulnerable to localized rainfall, rockfalls and landslides.

Travelers should check current road conditions and local forecasts before crossing exposed mountain routes.

Main hazards: Elevated daytime temperatures, strong UV radiation, gusty winds and localized mountain weather.

Source: INDECI – Peru’s National Civil Defense Agency.

5. Argentina – Changing Spring Weather and Thunderstorm Potential

Argentina continues experiencing a variable spring weather pattern, with frontal systems interacting with warm air across the country.

The latest available NOAA regional discussion identified developing rainfall across portions of central and northern Argentina.

Central Argentina

Areas including Córdoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires Province should monitor updated forecasts for showers and thunderstorms.

Where atmospheric instability develops, thunderstorms may bring brief heavy rainfall, lightning and gusty winds.

Northern Argentina

Moisture transport across northern Argentina and the Gran Chaco region could support additional showers and thunderstorms.

This weather pattern may also affect neighboring Paraguay.

Patagonia

Southern Argentina remains exposed to changing frontal systems and strong winds.

Mountain travelers and motorists should remain alert to rapidly changing weather, particularly along exposed roads.

Main hazards: Thunderstorms, isolated hail, strong winds and localized flooding.

The available regional discussion is not sufficient to confirm specific province-level warnings for Sunday.

Source: Argentina National Meteorological Service and NOAA’s South American Forecast Discussion.

6. Paraguay and Uruguay – Rainfall and Frontal Weather

A developing atmospheric pattern across the Southern Cone may influence Paraguay and Uruguay.

Paraguay

Northern and western Paraguay could experience showers and thunderstorms associated with moisture convergence across the Gran Chaco.

Localized heavy rainfall is possible where thunderstorms develop repeatedly.

Uruguay

Uruguay should monitor the movement of frontal systems across Argentina and southern Brazil.

These systems can bring showers, thunderstorms and periods of gusty wind.

Main hazards: Localized thunderstorms, lightning and potentially heavy rainfall.

No specific nationwide severe weather warning for November 15 was independently confirmed in the sources reviewed.

7. Chile and Bolivia – Mountain Hazards and Changing Conditions

Chile

Chile’s extensive north-to-south geography creates sharply contrasting weather conditions.

Northern desert areas, central valleys, the Andes and southern Patagonia can experience very different conditions on the same day.

Potential hazards requiring routine monitoring include strong mountain winds, snowfall at higher elevations, coastal conditions and wildfire danger where dry weather persists.

Bolivia

Bolivia’s rainy-season transition can produce afternoon thunderstorms, particularly across tropical lowlands and portions of the Andean foothills.

Heavy rainfall in mountainous terrain can trigger localized flooding and landslides.

Assessment: These are regional seasonal hazards. This report does not confirm a new nationwide emergency in either country today.

8. Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana – Tropical Rainfall Monitoring

Northern South America remains influenced by tropical moisture and atmospheric convergence.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across parts of Venezuela and the Guianas.

The most important hazards include localized heavy rainfall, lightning, rapidly rising streams and flooding in poorly drained communities.

The distribution and intensity of rainfall can vary considerably between coastal areas, tropical forests and inland highlands.

Residents should consult national meteorological services for current local forecasts and warnings.

South America Natural Hazards Summary – November 15, 2026

These assessments identify forecast concerns and monitoring priorities. They are not standardized emergency alert levels, and they do not imply that disasters have occurred in every listed country.

9. Earthquake, Volcano and Tsunami Monitoring

South America’s Pacific coastline remains one of the world’s most seismically active regions.

The Nazca tectonic plate is moving beneath the South American plate, generating earthquakes and supporting volcanic activity along the Andes.

Earthquake monitoring

Countries with significant seismic exposure include Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia.

Earthquakes can occur without warning, and even moderate events may cause damage where buildings or terrain are vulnerable.

The USGS reported a magnitude 5.8 earthquake offshore of southern Peru during the previous reporting period, with a low-impact alert classification.

That event should not be confused with a new earthquake occurring today.

Volcanic monitoring

Volcanoes across Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Chile require ongoing observation.

Potential hazards include volcanic ash, gas emissions, landslides and lahars where volcanic material mixes with water.

Tsunami monitoring

Strong or prolonged coastal earthquakes can create tsunami hazards.

People experiencing severe shaking near the coast should follow official evacuation guidance rather than waiting for an online alert.

Verification note: No new significant earthquake, volcanic eruption or tsunami warning for November 15 has been independently established by the sources reviewed for this report.

Official monitoring: USGS Earthquake Map.

10. South America Weather Outlook – November 16–18, 2026

Monday, November 16

Brazil may experience intensifying thunderstorms across central, southeastern and northeastern areas as a broader moisture corridor develops.

Peru’s elevated daytime temperature warning remains valid through Monday.

Colombia may continue experiencing significant rainfall across portions of its western and Andean regions.

Tuesday, November 17

Additional rainfall may affect parts of tropical South America, although the precise location and intensity of heavier precipitation require updated forecasts.

Conditions across Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will depend on the movement and strength of regional frontal systems.

Wednesday, November 18

Forecast uncertainty increases farther into the week.

Updated national forecasts will be needed to determine whether Brazil’s organized rainfall pattern persists and whether new areas become vulnerable to flooding.

The NOAA South American Forecast Discussion used in this report was issued November 12, with the next scheduled update on November 16.

11. Safety Advice for Residents and Travelers

• Flooding: Never drive through flooded roads or attempt to cross fast-moving water.

• Thunderstorms: Move indoors when lightning is nearby and avoid exposed areas.

• Landslides: Watch for unusual ground movement, falling rocks and rapidly rising streams.

• Heat: Stay hydrated, reduce strenuous activity during the hottest hours and use sun protection.

• Mountain travel: Check forecasts and road conditions before traveling through the Andes.

• Earthquakes: Follow national emergency guidance and prepare evacuation plans in seismic zones.

• Wildfires: Avoid outdoor burning during dry or windy conditions and follow official fire restrictions.

12. Official Weather and Natural Hazard Sources

Orbis Weather prioritizes national meteorological agencies, geological monitoring organizations and established international forecasting services.

Editorial methodology and verification

This report was prepared for Orbis Weather using publicly available official meteorological bulletins and regional forecasting discussions reviewed on November 15, 2026.

The report distinguishes between active official warnings, forecast weather hazards and broader regional monitoring concerns.

Forecasts are subject to change, and the absence of a confirmed warning in this report does not establish that no warning exists locally.

Rainfall totals and temperatures are forecasts unless explicitly identified as observations. Potential flooding, landslides and storm damage are not presented as confirmed events without supporting evidence.

Readers should always follow the latest instructions from national meteorological agencies and emergency management authorities.

For corrections or updates, readers may contact Orbis Weather through the publication’s official website.

Final Outlook – South America, November 15, 2026

South America’s most important weather developments today involve the potential for heavy rainfall across Ecuador and Colombia, expanding thunderstorms across Brazil and elevated temperatures in Peru.

Brazil faces a particularly active start to the week as atmospheric moisture becomes increasingly organized, potentially supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms through Monday.

Western Ecuador remains vulnerable to additional rainfall around the Gulf of Guayaquil, while Colombia continues monitoring flooding and landslide hazards in mountainous and coastal regions.

Across Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, changing frontal weather could produce additional showers and thunderstorms.

The next 24–48 hours will be particularly important for monitoring rainfall accumulation, localized flooding and thunderstorm development across northern, central and southeastern South America.

Orbis Weather will continue following official forecasts, earthquakes, volcanic activity and significant natural hazard developments across the continent.