Weekly Earth Watch: Volcanoes, Earthquakes & Natural Hazards – Week ending November 15, 2026

Nov 15, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

At a glance

It was a quiet week for earthquakes and tsunamis, while Mayon in the Philippines stayed at Alert Level 3 after another eruption on November 11. This edition covers Monday, November 9 to Sunday, November 15, 2026, with data running to about 12:30 UTC on November 15.

• Earthquakes: the largest was a magnitude 6.4 near Lata, Solomon Islands, on November 9, with no casualties or damage reported. The USGS catalogue lists seven events of magnitude 5.5 or greater.
• Tsunami: no warnings, advisories or threat messages were issued for any event this week.
• Volcanoes: Mayon erupted again under Alert Level 3; Kanlaon (Philippines) and Dukono (Indonesia) produced ash plumes; Kilauea (Hawaii) is paused, with the next episode forecast for November 17 to 22.
• Storms: no tropical cyclones were active on Sunday morning. A disturbance northeast of Samoa has a high chance of becoming a cyclone within 24 hours.
• Other hazards: long-running floods in Thailand, mostly small wildfires flagged by GDACS, and quiet space weather.
• Products used: USGS catalogue queries (12:29 to 12:31 UTC, November 15), JTWC bulletin (06:00 UTC, November 15), USGS HVO Kilauea update (18:06 UTC, November 14), NOAA SWPC forecast (12:30 UTC, November 14), NHC (12:52 UTC, November 14) and tsunami.gov (read November 15).

Volcanoes

Mayon remained the volcano of most concern, with thousands of residents displaced since late October. Elsewhere, ash emissions continued at several long-running eruptions. This week’s picture draws on national observatories, the USGS and aviation ash advisories (VAACs).

Mayon. PHIVOLCS raised Mayon to Alert Level 3 on October 30 after a moderately explosive eruption. On November 3, the Albay disaster office counted 3,903 evacuees, and PHIVOLCS warned the next eruption “could be stronger or weaker” (GMA, November 3). After the November 11 eruption, the Department of Health issued an ashfall advisory urging N95 masks and closed windows (Daily Tribune, November 12).

Kanlaon. Besides the November 14 plume, PHIVOLCS logged 15 volcanic earthquakes on November 11 and one on November 14. It measured sulfur dioxide at 3,384 tonnes per day on November 11 and reported continuing ground inflation (GMA, November 15).

Kilauea. Episode 56 fountaining lasted from 12:10 to 6:01 p.m. HST on November 5, reaching about 200 m (660 ft). Since then the summit tiltmeter has recorded about 11.9 microradians of inflation. HVO judges episode 57 likely in a November 17 to 22 window (USGS HVO, November 14).

Residents near Mayon, Kanlaon and Dukono should follow PHIVOLCS, PVMBG and local authorities, and obey any evacuation order immediately.

Continuing eruptions (aviation ash advisories, November 9 to 10)

In Vanuatu, Ambrym remains at Volcanic Alert Level 3 under a VMGD bulletin of October 8.

Earthquakes

The week was seismically quiet: no earthquake reached magnitude 6.5, and every event of magnitude 5.5 or greater carried a green PAGER alert. The largest was a magnitude 6.4 in the Santa Cruz Islands of Solomon Islands’ Temotu province.

Largest event: magnitude 6.4, Solomon Islands

USGS PAGER estimated about 11,900 people were exposed to strong (intensity VI) shaking and about 8,800 more to light or moderate shaking. Its model gave a 90 percent probability of zero to one fatality, which is a model estimate, not a toll. Anadolu, via Bernama on November 9, reported “No casualties or infrastructure damage were reported.” No later report of damage was found, and early reports from remote islands are preliminary.

The USGS catalogue lists four aftershocks of magnitude 4.5 or greater within 100 km (62 mi), the largest a magnitude 5.2 at 03:37 UTC on November 10. The event ranks well below this year’s 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater, the most recent a magnitude 7.0 near Nagqu, China, on October 22 (Orbis Weather count from the USGS catalogue).

All earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater, November 9 to 15

The catalogue counted 114 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater worldwide in the week. Data: USGS earthquake catalogue, queried at 12:29 UTC on November 15.

Tsunami

No tsunami warnings, advisories or threat messages were issued this week, and none of the week’s magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes carried a USGS tsunami flag. On November 15, tsunami.gov showed no warning, advisory, watch or threat in effect; its latest message was an information statement for a magnitude 4.2 earthquake near Kodiak, Alaska, at 23:26 UTC on November 13.

Other natural hazards

The main threats were a developing storm in the South Pacific and long-running floods in Thailand. The Atlantic and eastern Pacific had no storms, and space weather was quiet.

South Pacific disturbance. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center rates the chance of a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours as high, in a favourable setting of 29 to 30°C seas. Samoa expects fresh, gusty southeasterly winds and has a marine advisory for all waters. The Cook Islands have strong wind warnings in force (Samoa Observer, November 15). People in the region should follow their national meteorological services and local authorities, and obey evacuation orders immediately.

Thailand floods. Thailand’s floods are now in their third month, according to the national disaster agency (DDPM). Its figures are preliminary and may rise.

What to watch next week

The South Pacific disturbance and Kilauea’s next fountaining episode are the most likely developments in the coming days.

A rapidly strengthening South Pacific cyclone, or a stronger eruption at Mayon, would change the picture most. HVO stresses that its dates “remain a forecast window rather than a fixed eruption schedule” (as quoted by The Watchers).

About this report

The USGS publishes the global earthquake catalogue and PAGER impact estimates; national observatories such as PHIVOLCS (Philippines), PVMBG (Indonesia) and USGS HVO (Hawaii) set volcano alert levels; aviation ash advisories come from regional VAACs; tsunami messages come from NOAA’s tsunami warning centers. Times are in UTC unless stated, and catalogue magnitudes and locations can be revised. Casualty figures are as first reported and may change.

• Magnitude (Mww): the moment magnitude, a measure of an earthquake’s size based on the fault area and slip; it is the same for every location.
• Intensity (Modified Mercalli): how strongly shaking is felt at a particular place, written in Roman numerals; it varies with distance and ground conditions.
• PAGER alert: the USGS’s rapid, model-based estimate of likely deaths and losses (green, yellow, orange, red); it is not a count.
• Volcano alert level: a national scale for the state of a volcano; PHIVOLCS uses 0 to 5, Indonesia’s PVMBG uses I to IV, and the USGS uses Normal, Advisory, Watch and Warning.
• Invest: a weather disturbance that forecasters are investigating for possible cyclone development.

Frequently asked questions

Was anyone hurt in the Solomon Islands earthquake? No casualties or infrastructure damage were reported on November 9, according to Anadolu via Bernama. The USGS model also judged serious losses unlikely. Reports from remote Temotu province can arrive late, so these figures are preliminary.

Why is Mayon still at Alert Level 3? PHIVOLCS raised the level on October 30 after a moderately explosive eruption, and eruptions have continued since, including on November 11. Level 3 means an increased tendency toward a hazardous eruption. Entry into the 6 km Permanent Danger Zone is prohibited.

When will Kilauea erupt again? The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory judges episode 57 likely between November 17 and 22. That is a forecast window, not a schedule. Since December 2024 the episodes have usually lasted under 12 hours, with pauses of two weeks or more.

Could the South Pacific disturbance affect Samoa? Samoa’s Met Service expects fresh, gusty winds and has a marine advisory for all waters, while the system moves slowly west-southwest. Its forecast track and strength may change within hours. Residents should follow official bulletins and local authorities.

Was there any tsunami threat this week? No. No warnings, advisories or threat messages were issued for any earthquake between November 9 and 15.

Sources

Earthquakes

• USGS catalogue, magnitude 5.5+, November 9 to 16, queried 12:29 UTC, November 15
• USGS count, magnitude 4.5+, queried November 15
• USGS catalogue, magnitude 7+ in 2026 (generated October 18) and magnitude 7+ since October 10, generated 12:31 UTC, November 15
• USGS event us7000tx16, with PAGER alerts and PAGER exposures, read November 15
• USGS aftershock query near Lata, 12:30 UTC, November 15
• The Watchers: M6.4 Santa Cruz Islands, November 9
• Bernama: Magnitude 6.4 earthquake jolts Solomon Islands, November 9

Tsunami

• NOAA tsunami.gov, read November 15

Volcanoes

• Daily Tribune: DoH issues ashfall advisory amid Mayon eruption, November 12
• Daily Tribune: Mayon spews ash plume; displaces nearly 4K residents, November 3
• GMA News: PHIVOLCS warns of stronger eruption by Mayon Volcano, November 3
• GMA News: Kanlaon Volcano emits 600-meter ash plume, November 15
• Antara: Gunung Dukono erupsi tiga kali, November 14
• USGS HVO: Kilauea volcano updates, 18:06 UTC, November 14
• The Watchers: Kilauea north vent episode 56, November 14
• VolcanoDiscovery: volcano news (VAAC advisories), snapshot November 10
• VMGD Vanuatu: volcano warnings, Ambrym bulletin October 8

Other hazards

• JTWC Western and South Pacific outlook, 06:00 UTC, November 15
• JTWC Indian Ocean outlook, 18:00 UTC, November 14
• Samoa Observer: Tropical disturbance northeast of Samoa, November 15
• The Watchers: Typhoon Cempaka, November 14
• NOAA National Hurricane Center, 12:52 UTC, November 14
• AHA Centre: Weekly Disaster Update, 2 to 8 November 2026, November 9
• GDACS RSS feed, 07:55 UTC, November 15
• NOAA SWPC 3-day forecast, 12:30 UTC, November 14