Australian Region Tropical Weather Update: Sunday, November 15, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Current to 7:51 p.m. AWST, 9:21 p.m. ACST and 10:51 p.m. AEDT (9:51 p.m. AEST) on Sunday, November 15, 2026; 6:51 a.m. EST and 11:51 UTC the same day. Main products: JTWC Indian Ocean advisory issued 1800 UTC November 14; JTWC Western and South Pacific advisory issued 0600 UTC November 15; BMKG analysis for 0700 WIB (0000 UTC) November 15, as reported by Pos Kupang.

At a glance

No tropical cyclone is active in the Australian region, but a weak tropical low, Invest 96S, has drifted east of 90°E west of Sumatra.

• No tropical cyclones: JTWC’s latest advisories list no tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean or South Pacific.
• 96S near the equator: BMKG placed it near 1.0°S, 91.6°E at 0700 WIB on November 15, with 25-knot (46 km/h) winds.
• Odds differ: BMKG rates its chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 24 hours as moderate. JTWC rated it low at 1800 UTC November 14.
• Indirect effects on Sumatra: BMKG says 96S may bring heavy to very heavy rain and high waves to Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra until 0700 WIB November 16.
• Season to date: no Australian region tropical cyclone has been recorded since the season began on November 1, with a strong El Niño underway.

The Bureau of Meteorology, BMKG and PNG’s National Weather Service issue the official forecasts and warnings. Follow emergency service directions and evacuation orders immediately.

Active systems

One tropical low, 96S, is active in the region; it is not a tropical cyclone.

The two km/h figures for BMKG’s 25 knots come from different outlets quoting the same release. JTWC places 96S in a “marginally favorable” environment with 20–25 knots of northeasterly wind shear and sea temperatures of 29–30°C.

Systems threatening land

No Australian coast is under a cyclone watch or warning; the only land effects forecast are BMKG’s indirect impacts from 96S on western Sumatra.

96S: indirect rain and waves for Sumatra (BMKG, analysis 0700 WIB November 15)

BMKG says 96S formed at 1300 WIB on November 13 in the TCWC Jakarta monitoring area. It forecasts the low to move east-southeast to about 1.4°S, 92.0°E within 24 hours, with winds “masih persisten” (still persistent) at 25 knots, 10-minute average.

• Rain: BMKG says 96S “berpotensi menyebabkan hujan lebat hingga sangat lebat” (has the potential to cause heavy to very heavy rain) over Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra until 0700 WIB November 16.
• Waves: 2.5–4 m (8.2–13.1 ft) in the Indian Ocean west of Aceh; 1.25–2.5 m (4.1–8.2 ft) in the northern Strait of Malacca and the Indian Ocean west of Nias. BMKG gives the same ranges for 92B, a separate low in the Bay of Bengal.
• Outlook: for 48 to 72 hours BMKG says 96S stays persistent, “meskipun sejumlah model menunjukkan potensi pelemahan” (although several models show potential weakening). It names strong vertical wind shear as the main inhibiting factor.
• Impacts: Indonesia’s disaster agency BNPB urged caution over heavy rain and high waves on November 14 (CNN Indonesia). The outlets reviewed reported no casualties or damage linked to 96S.

These figures will be replaced by BMKG’s newest bulletin.

Tropical lows to watch

96S is the only low with a stated development chance in the region, and the two agencies rate it differently.

The Bureau’s Madden–Julian Oscillation update, issued November 10, describes a moderate to strong MJO pulse over the Indian Ocean. Most models move it east over the following week, then weaken it rapidly before the Maritime Continent; a couple, including the Bureau’s ACCESS-S, suggest it may reach that area.

Season so far

The 2026–27 season, which began November 1, has no recorded tropical cyclone yet, and model guidance points to a quiet season.

ABC News reports that the Bureau “no longer issues an official seasonal cyclone outlook”. The Bureau’s climate driver update of November 10 says “a strong to very strong El Niño is underway” and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is underway; NOAA CPC’s November 12 discussion keeps an El Niño Advisory in place.

What to watch next

The key question for the next day is whether 96S organises or weakens under wind shear.

• JTWC Indian Ocean advisory, valid from 1800 UTC November 15 (2 a.m. AWST Monday; 1 p.m. EST Sunday): its next rating of 96S’s development potential.
• BMKG (TCWC Jakarta) next bulletin on 96S: whether the moderate 24-hour chance holds, and its position against the forecast 1.4°S, 92.0°E.
• BMKG rain and wave advisory for Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra: it runs to 0700 WIB November 16 and may be extended or lifted.
• Bureau of Meteorology tropical cyclone outlooks: any new tropical low named for the Western, Northern or Eastern regions.
• Bureau MJO update: whether the Indian Ocean pulse moves east toward the Maritime Continent, as some models suggest.

About this report

This report covers the Southern Hemisphere from 90°E to 160°E, where the Bureau of Meteorology, BMKG (TCWC Jakarta) and PNG’s TCWC Port Moresby issue official warnings. It draws on JTWC advisories, BMKG statements reported by Indonesian media, Bureau climate pages and news reports, each with its issue time in the zone it uses (WIB is UTC+7; AWST UTC+8; ACST UTC+9:30; AEST UTC+10; AEDT UTC+11; EST UTC−5). BMKG and the Bureau use 10-minute average winds; JTWC uses 1-minute averages, which run higher for the same storm. Forecasts change with each new advisory.

• Tropical low: a low-pressure system in the tropics with winds below tropical cyclone strength.
• Australian category scale: the Bureau’s 1–5 scale for tropical cyclones; category 3 and above are severe tropical cyclones.
• Invest: JTWC’s label for an area of disturbed weather it is monitoring, numbered with a basin letter (S for the South Indian Ocean).
• Wind shear: a change in wind speed or direction with height that can stop a low from organising.
• Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): an eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rain around the tropics that can make cyclones more or less likely.

Frequently asked questions

Is a cyclone threatening Australia today? No. JTWC’s latest advisories list no tropical cyclone in the region, and the only active low, 96S, lies near the equator in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra, according to BMKG, with no Australian watches or warnings in place.

Will 96S become a tropical cyclone? The agencies disagree. BMKG gives a moderate chance within 24 hours, while JTWC rates the chance low, citing 20–25 knots of wind shear. BMKG also notes some models show the low weakening over 48 to 72 hours.

Who is affected by 96S? BMKG says the low could bring heavy to very heavy rain to Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra, and waves up to 4 m (13.1 ft) off western Aceh, until 0700 WIB November 16.

Why has the Australian season been so quiet? No agency statement reviewed links this season’s slow start to a cause. ABC News reports El Niño years since 1970 have averaged 7 or 8 cyclones, and that the first coastal crossing usually does not come until late December.

Sources

• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean (ABIO10), issued 1800 UTC November 14, 2026
• JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific (ABPW10), issued 0600 UTC November 15, 2026
• Pos Kupang: BMKG Deteksi 2 Bibit Siklon Tropis di Wilayah Indonesia, Ini Dampaknya, published 1725 WITA November 15, 2026
• CNN Indonesia: BMKG Deteksi Bibit Siklon Tropis 92B dan 96S, Waspada Cuaca Ekstrem, published 1540 WIB November 14, 2026
• Bureau of Meteorology: Madden–Julian Oscillation monitoring, issued November 10, 2026
• Bureau of Meteorology: climate driver update (ENSO, IOD), issued November 10, 2026
• Bureau of Meteorology: Australian tropical cyclone season climatology, last updated October 2025
• ABC News: Australia’s cyclone season could be one of quietest on record, modelling shows, November 1, 2026
• NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued November 12, 2026
• Wikipedia: 2026–27 Australian region cyclone season, read November 15, 2026