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Weekly Global Climate Pulse

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Thursday, November 12, 2026

Weekly Global Climate Pulse: Thursday, November 12, 2026

By Paul Harrison, Orbis Weather

Data issue dates: Copernicus October bulletin, November 5, 2026. Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) climate driver update, November 10. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) El Niño outlook, November 10. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO discussion, October 8 (the November issue is due today). US Drought Monitor map valid November 3, released November 5. NSIDC sea ice analysis, October 7. NOAA global report for September, October 9.

At a glance

October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, according to Copernicus, as one of the strongest El Niño events on record continued to build.

  • ENSO: El Niño continues. BoM’s weekly relative Niño3.4 index was +2.75°C (+4.95°F) for the week ending November 8.
  • Oceans: Average sea surface temperature for 60°S–60°N reached 20.95°C (69.71°F) in October, a record for the month (Copernicus, November 5).
  • Temperatures: October’s global air temperature was 1.75°C (3.15°F) above pre-industrial levels (Copernicus, November 5).
  • Sea ice: Antarctic extent was the second lowest for October; the Arctic was 13th lowest (Copernicus, November 5).
  • Drought: 43.4% of the lower 48 states was in drought on November 3, with rapid worsening in the Lower Mississippi Valley (US Drought Monitor).
  • Records: Copernicus says 2026 is “virtually certain” to exceed 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels (November 5).

El Niño and La Niña

A strong-to-very-strong El Niño is under way, and agencies expect it to last into early 2027. NOAA keeps an El Niño Advisory in place. Its October 8 synopsis said “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027”. BoM’s November 10 update said “A strong to very strong El Niño is underway.”

Agency

Measure

Value

Date

BoM

Relative Niño3.4, weekly

+2.75°C (+4.95°F); event peak so far +2.88°C (+5.18°F)

Week ending Nov 8

BoM

Southern Oscillation Index, 30-day

−14.4

To Nov 8

JMA

NINO.3, monthly

+4.4°C (+7.92°F), a record for the index

October

CPC

Niño 3.4 / Niño 3 / Niño 1+2, weekly

+2.5°C (+4.5°F) / +3.6°C (+6.48°F) / +4.4°C (+7.92°F)

Weekly update of Oct 26

CPC

Chance of 3-month relative ONI of +2.5°C (+4.5°F) or more

54% Sep–Nov; 83% Oct–Dec; 70% Nov–Jan

Oct 8

JMA said on November 10 that the event “has reached its strongest intensity on record” and is “virtually certain (100%)” to continue until boreal spring 2027. CPC favors ENSO-neutral by April–June 2027. WMO said on November 5 there is “a high chance” this will be the strongest El Niño since 1950.

Indian Ocean Dipole: BoM reports a positive IOD event under way, with a weekly index of +0.75°C (+1.35°F) to November 8. It expects a return to neutral in early summer. JMA put the October index at +0.69.

Oceans and global temperatures

October 2026 was the warmest October on record, and ocean surface temperatures set a monthly record for the fifth month in a row. Copernicus put October’s global surface air temperature at 15.35°C (59.63°F), 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 1991–2020 average. That beat the previous October record, set in 2023, by 0.05°C (0.09°F).

The average sea surface temperature (SST) for 60°S–60°N was 20.95°C (69.71°F), the highest on record for October. The Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific averaged 29.94°C (85.89°F), an anomaly of +3.21°C (+5.78°F) that Copernicus called “an all-time high”. Copernicus also reported record October SSTs in parts of the Mediterranean, the northern Indian Ocean, the South Atlantic and the subtropical North Atlantic.

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August, September and October were each more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the 1850–1900 level in Copernicus data. European land was 1.49°C (2.68°F) above the 1991–2020 average in October, the second-warmest October after 2022.

NOAA’s latest global report covers September 2026. It put the month 1.33°C (2.39°F) above the 20th-century average, the second-warmest September since 1850. NOAA said the global ocean set a new monthly record, 1.10°C (1.98°F) above average. The latest NOAA Coral Reef Watch headline, from June 2, said the fourth global coral bleaching event likely ended in 2025.

Sea ice

Antarctic sea ice remains far below average, while the Arctic is low but not near its record. Copernicus October figures, published November 5, use a 1991–2020 baseline.

Region

October 2026 average extent

Below 1991–2020 average

Rank for October

Arctic

7.1 million km² (2.74 million sq mi)

0.7 million km² (0.27 million sq mi), 8.5%

13th lowest; record low for October in the Kara Sea

Antarctic

16.8 million km² (6.49 million sq mi)

1.7 million km² (0.66 million sq mi), 9.3%

2nd lowest, behind 2023

NSIDC’s latest monthly analysis, dated October 7, covers September. The Arctic minimum of 4.60 million km² (1.78 million sq mi) on September 12 tied for tenth lowest in the satellite record. The Antarctic maximum of 17.59 million km² (6.79 million sq mi) on September 14 was the third lowest. NSIDC first gave both as preliminary on September 23 and confirmed the dates and ranks on October 7. It also reported record-low daily Antarctic extents from October 2.

Drought

Drought eased in the US Southwest but intensified in the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, the Northeast and parts of the Southeast. The latest US Drought Monitor map is valid November 3 and was released November 5. On that date 43.4% of the lower 48 states and 36.8% of the United States and Puerto Rico were in drought. Drought.gov counted 87.1 million people affected.

Region

Change in the week to November 3

Southwest and Great Basin

Broad one-category improvement after 60-day rainfall of 200–400% of normal in parts of the region

Lower Mississippi Valley

“Rapid intensification”; severe to exceptional drought in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee

Midwest

Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri worsened by one category

Northeast

Worsening in New England, New York’s Finger Lakes, northern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey; extreme drought added in Maine’s North Woods

Southeast

Florida improved after record rain; Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia worsened

Texas

One-category improvements from the remnants of Hurricane Vance

Worldwide: In Sudan, July–September rainfall was the lowest in more than three decades, Reuters reported on October 23. The World Food Programme projects 350,000 more people in severe hunger by the end of 2026. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre’s November 5 outlook predicts below-normal rainfall for the southern and northeastern Maritime Continent through January 2027.

Records and milestones

Copernicus confirmed the warmest October on record and said 2026 will almost certainly pass 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.

  • 2026 outlook (Copernicus, November 5): a projected 1.56–1.61°C (2.81–2.90°F) above 1850–1900. It gives about an 80% chance of 2026 ending as the second-warmest year, and about 20% of tying or beating 2024. January–October was the second warmest on record, 0.64°C (1.15°F) above 1991–2020.
  • WMO State of the Climate update (November 9): January–September 2026 was 1.47°C ±0.13°C (2.65°F ±0.23°F) above 1850–1900. WMO reported ocean heat content at a record for the tenth year running and sea level at a record high.
  • WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (October 27): carbon dioxide averaged 426.8 ppm in 2025, 153% of the pre-industrial level. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached new records.
  • United States (NOAA, November 9): October 2026 was the fourth-warmest October in the 132-year record, 2.6°C (4.6°F) above average.

What to watch

NOAA’s November ENSO discussion and a new US Drought Monitor map are both due today.

Date

Release or event

Thu, Nov 12

NOAA CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion; US Drought Monitor map valid November 10

Thu, Nov 19

US Drought Monitor weekly map

Fri, Nov 20

COP31 climate talks close in Antalya, Türkiye (began November 9)

Thu, Dec 10

Next JMA El Niño outlook; next CPC ENSO discussion (second Thursday)

Early December

Copernicus bulletin for November, on its usual monthly schedule

About this report

The Weekly Global Climate Pulse tracks slow-moving climate indicators, not daily weather. Many of them update monthly, so each figure carries its issue date. Agencies measure anomalies against different reference periods. Copernicus uses 1991–2020 for recent comparisons and 1850–1900 as a pre-industrial reference. NSIDC uses 1981–2010 for sea ice, and NOAA’s global report uses the 20th-century average. An older, cooler baseline gives a larger anomaly for the same month, so figures from different baselines should not be compared directly. Recent data, especially daily and sea ice values, can be revised.

  • ENSO: El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the cycle of warming (El Niño) and cooling (La Niña) in the tropical Pacific.
  • Niño 3.4: a box of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific whose sea surface temperature is the main gauge of ENSO.
  • Relative index: a Niño index measured against the average of the whole tropics, used by NOAA and BoM to allow for overall ocean warming.
  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): the difference in sea temperature between the western and eastern Indian Ocean; a positive phase means a warmer west.
  • Sea ice extent: the area of ocean with at least some sea ice cover, measured by satellite.

Frequently asked questions

Is this the strongest El Niño on record? JMA said on November 10 that the event has reached its strongest intensity on record. WMO said on November 5 there is a high chance it will be the strongest since 1950.

When is El Niño expected to end? NOAA favors a return to ENSO-neutral by April–June 2027. JMA expects El Niño to continue until boreal spring 2027.

Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? Probably not, according to Copernicus. It gives about an 80% chance that 2026 ends as the second-warmest year, behind 2024, and about 20% of a tie or new record.

Why do temperature anomalies differ between agencies? Each agency compares against its own baseline and uses its own dataset. October’s anomaly is 0.90°C (1.62°F) against 1991–2020 but larger against 1850–1900, because the earlier period was cooler.

Is US drought improving or worsening? Both, depending on the region. Rain improved the Southwest, while drought spread quickly in the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Midwest and the Northeast.

Sources

Sources & Methodology
Weekly Global Weather Watch is compiled by Orbis Weather using information from official national and international meteorological agencies, including NOAA, the National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological Organization and relevant national weather agencies worldwide.

Orbis Weather reviews these official observations, forecasts, warnings and outlooks to identify the most significant global weather patterns and hazards for the week ahead. Forecast conditions can change as new observations and model guidance become available.

About the Author

Paul Harrison — Founder & Publisher, Orbis Weather

Paul Harrison founded Orbis Weather in 2026 to make global weather and natural-hazard information easier to find, follow and understand. His coverage includes tropical cyclones, severe weather, extreme temperatures, earthquakes, volcanoes, wildfires, flooding and significant natural disasters worldwide.

View all articles by Paul Harrison → | Editorial Standards →

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