WESTERN PACIFIC Tropical Weather Update – November 13, 2026

Orbis Weather | Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons & Regional Weather Hazards

By Paul Harrison | Orbis Weather

Friday, November 13, 2026

Western Pacific Quiet Following Typhoon Cempaka, but Heavy Rain and Rough Seas Remain Concerns

The Western Pacific tropical cyclone basin is experiencing a welcome period of relative calm on Friday, November 13, following the departure of Typhoon Cempaka earlier this week.

The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) tropical weather advisory, issued at 06:00 UTC on November 13, reports no active tropical cyclones, no tropical disturbances and no subtropical systems across the Western North Pacific.

That is encouraging news for communities across the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, China and the wider western Pacific region. However, the absence of a named tropical cyclone does not mean an absence of hazardous weather.

Seasonal winds, monsoon-related rainfall, localized thunderstorms and rough coastal waters can still create dangerous conditions, particularly for coastal communities, fishing vessels and travelers.

Current Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Status

The advisory covers the Western North Pacific from the International Date Line westward toward the Malay Peninsula.

Although no organized systems are currently identified, tropical cyclone development remains possible during November. Conditions can change as tropical disturbances form over warm ocean waters.

Typhoon Cempaka: The Latest Storm to Leave the Basin

Typhoon Cempaka was the most recent significant tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific.

According to the JTWC’s final warning information, Cempaka was positioned near 30.2°N, 154.1°E at 12:00 UTC on November 11, approximately 360 nautical miles north of Minamitorishima, Japan.

At that time, the storm had maximum sustained one-minute winds estimated at 65 knots, equivalent to approximately 75 mph (120 km/h), with gusts reaching 80 knots, or approximately 92 mph (148 km/h).

The system was moving rapidly east-northeast at 36 knots, or approximately 41 mph (67 km/h).

JTWC subsequently ended its tropical cyclone warnings for Cempaka, and the system no longer appears in the active Western North Pacific cyclone summary.

Cempaka serves as a reminder that powerful tropical systems can still develop late in the year, even as the region moves away from its peak typhoon season.

Philippines: No Active Tropical Cyclones, but Rainfall Continues

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported Friday morning that no tropical cyclones or monitored low-pressure areas were present inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Nevertheless, several regions remain exposed to rainfall associated with seasonal weather patterns.

Northern Luzon

Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao and Kalinga are among the areas expecting rainfall. Cooler conditions and occasional fog may affect higher elevations and parts of the Cordillera region.

Residents traveling through mountainous areas should remain alert for reduced visibility, slippery roads and localized rainfall accumulation.

Bicol Region

Easterly winds are influencing conditions across Albay, Sorsogon and Catanduanes, bringing periods of rain and potentially unsettled coastal weather.

Visayas and Mindanao

Rainfall and thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the eastern Visayas, Caraga, the Davao region and parts of the southwestern Philippines.

Localized thunderstorms can produce intense rainfall over short periods, increasing the risk of street flooding and hazardous driving conditions.

PAGASA has also highlighted hazardous coastal waters, reinforcing the need for mariners to consult the latest marine forecasts before departure.

Taiwan and the East China Sea

With no active Western Pacific tropical cyclone currently identified, there is no immediate named-storm threat indicated by the latest basin-wide JTWC advisory.

However, November is a transitional period when northeasterly seasonal winds can influence conditions around Taiwan, the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.

These winds may produce choppy seas and stronger conditions along exposed coastlines.

Marine operators should distinguish between the absence of tropical cyclone warnings and the possibility of separate wind or wave advisories issued by local meteorological authorities.

Japan and the Ryukyu Islands

Japan’s southern island chains remain an important monitoring area during the late Western Pacific typhoon season.

Although Cempaka has departed and no new tropical cyclone is listed in the latest JTWC advisory, changing pressure systems can still affect offshore conditions.

The Ryukyu Islands, Okinawa and waters south of mainland Japan may experience periods of unsettled weather unrelated to tropical cyclone activity.

Residents and maritime operators should continue checking Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for localized wind, rainfall and wave warnings.

Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and Micronesia

The latest JTWC advisory does not identify an active tropical cyclone or developing tropical disturbance across the Western North Pacific, including the broader Micronesian region.

Nevertheless, the tropical maritime environment can support isolated showers, thunderstorms and occasional gusty conditions.

For Guam, Saipan, Tinian, Rota, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia, local forecasts remain essential because short-lived thunderstorms can develop without an organized tropical cyclone.

The National Weather Service in Guam provides localized weather forecasts, marine advisories and tropical cyclone information for much of the region.

Western Pacific Tropical Development Outlook: Next 24–72 Hours

The immediate tropical cyclone outlook is relatively favorable, with no organized disturbances identified in the latest JTWC Western North Pacific assessment.

This does not constitute a guarantee that tropical cyclone formation will remain absent over the next three days. Development potential depends on several atmospheric and oceanic factors, including:

• Sea-surface temperatures and available ocean heat.

• Vertical wind shear, which can disrupt developing storm circulation.

• Atmospheric moisture and thunderstorm organization.

• Low-level circulation and the strength of the surrounding monsoon environment.

• Large-scale tropical weather patterns that influence storm formation.

The latest basin-wide advisory provides a current assessment rather than a numerical three-day development probability. Consequently, Orbis Weather is not assigning an unsupported percentage chance of tropical cyclone formation.

El Niño and the Wider Pacific Weather Pattern

An important background factor this November is the exceptionally strong El Niño event affecting the equatorial Pacific.

In its November 10 outlook, the Japan Meteorological Agency reported that the NINO.3 sea-surface temperature anomaly reached +4.4°C during October 2026, exceeding the previous record in its dataset.

JMA expects the event to remain established through the coming months, with a peak anticipated during the first half of Northern Hemisphere winter.

El Niño can influence tropical cyclone formation, prevailing winds and rainfall distribution across the Pacific. However, these effects vary by location and season, and the current El Niño conditions alone cannot establish whether a particular storm will form or where it will travel.

Marine and Coastal Safety Outlook

Even during a quiet tropical cyclone period, coastal and maritime hazards deserve continued attention.

Across the Western Pacific, conditions can change quickly around thunderstorms, monsoon surges and developing non-tropical pressure systems.

Small fishing vessels and recreational boaters should pay particular attention to locally issued advisories for strong winds, elevated waves and poor visibility.

Heavy rain may also cause dangerous conditions in mountainous regions, especially where saturated ground increases landslide susceptibility.

Important: No active tropical cyclone does not mean that every coastal area is safe for marine activity. Local warnings take precedence over a basin-wide tropical cyclone summary.

Official Western Pacific Weather Monitoring Sources

Orbis Weather uses official meteorological information and recognized tropical cyclone monitoring agencies to help readers understand evolving conditions.

Readers can also consult the JMA Himawari satellite service for updated regional satellite observations.

Western Pacific Outlook: What Happens Next?

The Western Pacific has entered a quieter phase following the departure of Typhoon Cempaka, but the tropical cyclone season is not necessarily finished.

November can still produce significant typhoons, particularly over the Philippine Sea and other warm tropical waters.

For now, the primary confirmed development is the absence of active tropical cyclones or monitored disturbances in the latest JTWC advisory. Rainfall and localized marine hazards remain the more immediate concerns for parts of the Philippines.

Further updates will depend on whether new tropical disturbances emerge, whether seasonal wind patterns intensify, and whether national weather agencies issue additional warnings.

Orbis Weather Summary – November 13, 2026

The Western Pacific tropical cyclone basin is currently quiet, with no active named storms, tropical depressions or organized disturbances identified in the JTWC’s 06:00 UTC advisory.

Typhoon Cempaka has exited the active warning picture, while the Philippines continues to experience rainfall associated with non-cyclonic weather systems.

The key message for the region is straightforward: the immediate tropical cyclone threat is low based on current observations, but local rainfall, thunderstorms and marine hazards still require attention.

Orbis Weather will continue monitoring the Western Pacific for changes in tropical cyclone activity, storm development and regional weather threats.

Editorial Methodology and Weather Information Disclaimer

Report date: November 13, 2026
Primary tropical cyclone advisory: JTWC ABPW10, issued 06:00 UTC November 13, 2026
Additional information: PAGASA November 13 weather reporting, JMA November 10 El Niño outlook, and JTWC November 11 final Typhoon Cempaka information.

This report combines official meteorological bulletins with independent editorial explanation. Confirmed storm observations are distinguished from general seasonal risks and potential future developments.

Weather conditions and official warnings may change after publication. Orbis Weather provides information for public awareness and does not replace national meteorological agencies, emergency management authorities or official evacuation instructions.

Published by Orbis Weather
Written by Paul Harrison